基于SARIMA-SVR组合模型的 空气质量指数预测

空气质量指数(AQI)在波动中既具有整体的时间序列线性特征和明显的季节性波动周期,又具有多种因素影响的不确定性,为了提高AQI的预测精度,基于Ri386 3.3.3和Matlab R2014a两种编程软件,提出了一种同时具有线性和非线性的复合特征的时间序列预测模型——SARIMA-SVR组合模型。以太原市2014年1月—2019年7月的AQI月均值数据为基础,利用SARIMA时间序列模型进行线性预测,利用SVR模型对残差进行非线性预测,加和得到组合预测模型的预测结果,分析比较SARIMA,SVR和SARIMA-SVR这3种模型的预测结果和平均绝对百分比误差。结果表明,组合预测模型发挥了2种模型各自的优势,相较于单一预测模型的预测结果而言,其预测精度更高,稳定性更好。通过此模型得到的空气质量预测结果不仅可为人们的日常生活提供指导,而且可为大气污染的防治工作提供科学依据和借鉴意义。     

Diversification and sophistication of livestock products: The case of African countries

This study assesses the level of sophistication of livestock products in Africa by evaluating technology intensity and economic complexity of each product. Using trade data from 1995 to 2012, livestock commodity exports are classified based on technology intensity. Employing a method of reflection in computing the economic complexity of export products, we find that one fifth of African livestock commodity exports are manufactured with low technology while the rest is composed of raw materials. The results also show that the ten most complex livestock commodities represent about a third of African livestock total exports while the world level is almost double this figure. Yet African countries spend a huge share of their wealth on importing complex products. The results imply that by exporting non-complex products Africa loses nearly a third of the total value of its livestock exports. To boost the value of livestock products, African countries should exploit their untapped potential while securing the domestic market to achieve import substitution. This can be done by integrating with global value chains or developing niche markets at the regional or international markets and improving productive capabilities.     

‘Globesity’? The effects of globalization on obesity and caloric intake

We examine the effect of globalization, in its economic and social dimensions, on obesity and caloric intake, namely the so –called ‘globesity’ hypothesis. Our results suggest a robust association between globalization and both obesity and caloric intake. A one standard deviation increase in globalization is associated with a 23.8 percent increase in obese population and a 4.3 percent rise in calorie intake. The effect remains statistically significant even after using an instrumental variable strategy to correct for some possible reverse causality and ommited variable bias, a lagged structure, and corrections for panel standard errors. However, we find that the primary driver (of the ‘globesity’ phenomenon) is the ‘social’ rather than the ‘economic’ dimension of globalization, and specifically the effect of changes in ‘information flows’ and ‘social proximity’ on obesity. A one standard deviation increase in social globalization increased the percentage of obese population by 13.7 percent.     

电力市场效率评估与碳市场价格设计——基于电碳市场关联视角下的传导率估计

厘清并量化电力市场与碳市场间的关联关系,是深化电力市场改革与实现"双碳"目标的重要抓手。本文基于2006—2018年中国100个地级及以上城市的面板数据,使用似不相关回归模型评估了电力市场效率,在此基础上研究了电、碳市场关联条件下碳价对电价的传导率,并对不同场景下全国碳市场的碳价进行了优化设计。研究发现:(1)与非试点地区相比,碳市场试点地区中电力市场的无谓损失率更低,并且市场效率的提高具有更高的碳减排作用。(2)电、碳市场关联条件下,碳价对电力市场中居民电价的传导率高于对工业电价的传导率,但均远低于完全竞争条件下的传导率水平。(3)传导率的提升能够缓解"降电价"与"碳减排"之间的矛盾。当前传导率下电力市场效率目标与碳减排目标的协同实现需要碳价的大幅提升,而在完全传导的理想情况下最优碳价约为40元/吨。(4)长期而言,当前传导率下碳排放总量下降场景、经济增速放缓场景对应的最优碳价分别为255.05元/吨、173.63元/吨,而人口老龄化场景并未对最优碳价的设置形成约束。本文的研究不仅为电力市场与碳市场之间的关联奠定了理论基础,也为全国碳市场价格机制的优化设计提供了政策参考。     

The differential effects of CEO narcissism and hubris on corporate social responsibility

Research Summary: While prior studies have predominantly shown that CEO narcissism and hubris exhibit similar effects on various strategic decisions and outcomes, this study aims to explore the mechanisms underlying how narcissistic versus hubristic CEOs affect their firms differently. Specifically, we investigate how peer influence moderates the CEO narcissism/hubris—corporate social responsibility (CSR). With a sample of S&P 1500 firms for 2003–2010, we find that the positive relationship between CEO narcissism and CSR is strengthened (weakened) when board‐interlocked peer firms invest less (more) intensively in CSR than a CEO's own firm; the negative relationship between CEO hubris and CSR is strengthened when peer firms are engaged in less CSR than a CEO's own firm. Managerial Summary: Some CEOs are more narcissistic while others may be more hubristic, but these two groups of CEOs hold different attitudes toward the extent to which their firms should engage in corporate social responsibility (CSR). Our findings with a large sample of U.S. publically listed firms suggest that narcissistic CEOs care more about CSR, but hubristic CEOs care less. Interestingly, when narcissistic CEOs observe their peer firms engaging in more or less CSR than their own firms, they tend to respond in an opposite manner; in contrast, hubristic CEOs will only engage in even less CSR when their peers also do not emphasize CSR. Our findings point to a fundamental difference between CEO narcissism and hubris in terms of how they affect firms' CSR decisions based on their social comparison with peer firms.     

2030年世界能源与电力发展展望

在系统分析世界能源与电力发展最新动态的基础上,对2030年世界及主要国家的能源与电力发展趋势以及能源与电力投资增长的趋势进行了分析预测。该分析预测结果可为研究和制定我国的能源及电力发展战略提供参考。     

城市电网负荷预测方法研究

介绍了不同负荷预测方法的适用范围,分析了我国城市电网负荷发展的特点,给出了城市电网负荷预测的思路和重点;在此基础上,提出了城市规划不同阶段和城市不同地区的负荷预测实现方法,进一步研究了提高城市电网负荷预测结果准确性的主要措施。     

对变电站建设用地使用权证办理情况的调查及建议

《物权注》明确规定建设用地使用权人需要履行登记手续,取得建设用地使用权证。通过调查,目前国家电网公司系统尚有部分变电站没有取得建设用地使用权证。不办理变电站建设用地使用权证,变电站用地将得不到法律的承认与保护,可能使变电站用地面临越来越多的纠纷,影响变电站扩建,影响电网发展。需要稳步推进变电站建设用地使用权证的办理工作。以保证电网的健康发展。     

用电检查面临的重点问题及反窃电措施

用电检查是供电营销管理工作的重要内容,而查窃电又是用电检查的重点和难点。基于多年用电检查工作经验,分析了当前供电业务中违章用电和窃电形势,论述了供电企业用电检查和反窃电工作的现状及面临的问题,结合供电企业工作实际,提出了查处窃电的相关对策。     

关于深化农电体制改革的建议

总结了我国农电体制改革在构建农村供电所或营业所、促进农业经济发展等方面的成效,分析了县级供电企业存在的政企未完全分开、股份制改革困难较多、产权关系复杂等问题,提出在深化农电体制改革的过程中,应优先考虑上划方式结束对县级供电企业的代管,明晰农电资产所有权,对农电工管理采用农电业务外包方式,建立有效的农电投融资机制及合理的农村电价形成机制。