Do UK Higher Education Students Overestimate Their Starting Salary?*

The wage expectations of university students have relevance for human capital theory, models of student enrolment, and public policy on the provision of higher education. However, these expectations have been the subject of relatively little research in European countries, with no contemporary evidence available in the UK. There has also been little consideration in the literature thus far of how much estimates may be biased by non‐response and sample selection. This paper thus makes an original contribution to the literature by comparing UK undergraduate students' wage expectations with the actual wages earned by the same cohort on graduation, after attempting to correct for the aforementioned statistical issues in terms of observable characteristics. In contrast to other European studies, I conclude that, on average, full‐time students overestimate their starting salary. Yet I also find substantial variation in the extent of overestimation between different subgroups.     

Output persistence from monetary shocks with staggered prices or wages under a Taylor Rule

We analytically examine output persistence from monetary shocks in a DSGE model with staggered prices or wages under a Taylor Rule. Surprisingly, while Taylor-style staggering never yields persistence, Calvo-style staggering of wages does generate persistence under decreasing returns to labour.     

Wages,Prices and Agriculture: How Can Indian Agriculture Cope with Rising Wages?

Rapid economic growth in India has resulted in rapidly rising rural wages. Using the framework of variable profit functions and household level data, we study econometrically the wage impacts on crop agriculture. Rising wages are associated with decreasing crop output, other things being equal. Crop prices would need to increase by 80% in the short run to offset the effect of an agricultural wage increase, or by 140% in the short run to offset rural non‐farm wage increases as well. However, because non‐land farm assets respond positively to the non‐farm wage, in the medium term this increase is reduced to 74%. During the period of 1999/00‐2007/08, growth in non‐land farm assets, the labour force, education and technology has easily compensated for the wage increase, and probably also for the accelerating wage growth. Focusing on growing these shifter variables is a much better policy option than raising prices that would come at the expense of consumers or taxpayers.     

经济权力与工资水平的博弈：“民工荒”的一个解释——兼论“刘易斯模型”的改造

农民工经济权力与工资水平的博弈是＂民工荒＂的问题所在,据此可知刘易斯模型是一个动态的水平面,而不仅仅是静态的水平线,中国的实际情况表明刘易斯转折点将比预期的提前到达,要求巩固民工权益保障的既定成效,产业结构优化与农民工职业培训相结合,适时适度调整计划生育人口政策。     

The Effect of Labor Market Demand on U.S. CEO Pay Since 1980

This paper shows that the rise in U.S. chief executive officer (CEO) pay from 1980 to 2003 is only partially explained by competition for profit‐producing talent in the labor market. This conclusion is obtained by removing unintended data biases from tests of the only theoretical model in the literature that relates labor market competition (measured by large firm size) to CEO pay level. When the biases are removed or minimized, no more than 33% of the 600+ percentage rise in large‐firm CEO pay since 1980 is explained by a corresponding increase in large firm size.     

Working time, employment, and work sharing: Evidence from Sweden

We study three questions which are important for work sharing to increase employment. First, is there a negative long-run relation between working time and employment? Second, are hours per worker exogenous with respect to wages and employment? Third, can policy makers influence actual hours per worker? We formulate a theoretical model for employment, hours per worker, production, and real wages. A VAR model with cointegrating constraints is estimated by maximum likelihood using Swedish private sector data 1970:1–1990:4. We find (i) no long-run relation between hours per worker and employment, (ii) that hours per worker are endogenous with respect to the estimation of long-run parameters, and (iii) that legislated working time and hours per worker are related to each other in the long run. First version received: September 1997/final version accepted: June 1999     

Labor market dynamics when effort depends on wage growth comparisons

We present an efficiency wage model in which workers' disutility of effort depends on the level and on the growth rate of their wage relative to an alternative wage. Using data for four countries (US, UK, FR, GY), the implications of the model are examined and are found to be in accordance with the information in the non-stationary data. The restrictions implied by the model dynamics are not rejected by the data and the structural parameters are found to be constant through time. One interesting result is that the workers' disutility of effort depends less on relative wages growth and more on relative wage levels in the US than in the three European countries analyzed. First version received: September 1998 / Final version accepted: November 1999     

Multiple Wage Bargaining Systems in the Single European Currency Area

Little attention in the EMU literature has been paid to the interaction between centralbank monetary rules and systems of collective wage bargaining. Analytically andempirically, coordinated wage bargaining systems respond with real wage restraintto non-accommodating monetary policy. Since wage determination is dominated bycollective bargaining in all the EMU member states and wage coordination within themember states has grown since 1980, this is a topic of potential importance. In particular, the replacement of the Bundesbank, directly targeting German inflation, by an ECB targeting European inflation has removed a major institutional support of wage restraint in Germany. The consequences of this for EMU are worked out under two scenarios, that inflation expectations will be generated by ECB monetary policy and that they will reflect German inflation outcomes. Possible institutional developments are discussed including government-union bargains. The Bundesbank has also played a major role in maintaining fiscal rectitude by targeting excess fiscal deficits in Germany: again its replacement by the ECB – targeting (if at all) European rather than German fiscal policy – loosens fiscal constraints. For underlying structural reasons therefore, it is possible that Germany and other EMU countries will move to a period of fiscal activism with wage restraint and low inflation purchased through social contract negotiations.     

The impact of health on wages: Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey

While income is generally considered an important determinant of health, little evidence has been offered on the reverse relationship, particularly for developed economies. This paper considers the effect of self-assessed general and psychological health on hourly wages using longitudinal data from six waves of the British Household Panel Survey. We employ single equation fixed effects and random effects instrumental variable estimators suggested by Hausman and Taylor (1981), Amemiya and MaCurdy (1986), and Breusch, Mizon and Schmidt (1989). Our results show that reduced psychological health reduces the hourly wage for males, while excellent self-assessed health increases the hourly wage for females. We also find the health variables to be positively correlated with the time-invariant individual effect. Further, we confirm the findings of previous work which suggested that the majority of the efficiency gains from the use of the instrumental variables estimators fall on the time-invariant endogenous variables, in our case academic attainment, and add further support to the hypothesis of a negative correlation between educational attainment and individual characteristics which affect wages. First version received: January 2000/Final version received: October 2000