我国农村居民消费水平预测的实证研究

本文介绍了自回归移动平均模型即ARIMA(p,d,q)模型的基本原理、构建及其应用方法。文章广泛搜集从1952年到2011年以来我国农村居民消费水平的相关数据,运用统计学和计量经济学原理,从时间序列的定义出发,结合统计软件E-views运用ARMA建模方法,将ARIMA模型应用于我国农村居民消费水平的分析与预测,得到较为满意的结果。     

美国贸易法“301条款”与WTO争端解决机制的向背性分析

虽然世界贸易组织早已确立了较为完善的争端解决机制,但美国始终不放弃"301条款",继续使用该法律对其他国家的贸易措施进行调查、谈判,甚至威胁和报复。一方面,"301条款"的单边主义与WTO确定的多边贸易体制是完全相悖的;另一方面,"301条款"与WTO争端解决机制又存在着某种暗合,并对WTO争端解决机制有催生作用,且能够适应这种环境,配合该机制而运作。     

一阶微分伏安法快速检测对硝基酚和间硝基酚

在pH值为5.5的0.1 mol/L的HAc-NaAc体系中,采用一阶微分伏安法实现了间硝基酚、对硝基酚在玻碳电极上的同时检测。在3.0×10-6~1.0×10-4mol/L浓度范围内,间硝基酚和对硝基酚的一阶微分还原电流均与其浓度呈现线性关系,二者的检测限分别为9.1×10-7mol/L和1.2×10-6mol/L,此方法用于模拟水样测定,回收率为96.7%~104.0%。     

论非物质文化遗产与区域经济建设——以吴桥杂技为例

非物质文化遗产在连结民族感情、传承中华民族文化等方面具有不可替代的作用。要充分发挥非物质文化遗产的作用,必须不断完善保护措施和开发新的思路。本文以吴桥杂技作为个案,以非物质文化遗产与经济之间的关系作为切入点,对两者之间的互动性进行了研究,探讨了开发与保护非物质文化遗产的新思路。     

The China–US Trade War: Deep‐Rooted Causes,Shifting Focus and Uncertain Prospects

The USA has waged a trade war against China, whose rapid rise has come to be seen as a threat to US hegemony. Besides imposing additional tariffs on imported Chinese products, the USA is also tightening restrictions on the transfer of technology to China and the business activities of some Chinese high‐tech companies, notably Huawei. The escalation of the trade war into a tech war could lead to a decoupling between the US and Chinese economies, if not a world economy divided into two economic blocs that centered on them.     

Bayesian Calibration of p‐Values from Fisher's Exact Test

p‐Values are commonly transformed to lower bounds on Bayes factors, so‐called minimum Bayes factors. For the linear model, a sample‐size adjusted minimum Bayes factor over the class of g‐priors on the regression coefficients has recently been proposed (Held & Ott, The American Statistician 70(4), 335–341, 2016). Here, we extend this methodology to a logistic regression to obtain a sample‐size adjusted minimum Bayes factor for 2 × 2 contingency tables. We then study the relationship between this minimum Bayes factor and two‐sided p‐values from Fisher's exact test, as well as less conservative alternatives, with a novel parametric regression approach. It turns out that for all p‐values considered, the maximal evidence against the point null hypothesis is inversely related to the sample size. The same qualitative relationship is observed for minimum Bayes factors over the more general class of symmetric prior distributions. For the p‐values from Fisher's exact test, the minimum Bayes factors do on average not tend to the large‐sample bound as the sample size becomes large, but for the less conservative alternatives, the large‐sample behaviour is as expected.     

Switching VARMA Term Structure Models

The purpose of this article is to propose a global discrete-timemodeling of the term structure of interest rates which is ableto capture simultaneously the following important features:(i) a historical dynamics of the factor driving term structureshapes involving several lagged values, and switching regimes;(ii) a specification of the stochastic discount factor (SDF)with time-varying and regime-dependent risk-premia; (iii) explicitor quasi explicit formulas for zero-coupon bond (ZCB) and interestrate derivative prices. We develop the switching autoregressivenormal (SARN) and the switching vector autoregressive normal(SVARN) Factor-Based Term Structure Models of order p. The factoris considered as a latent variable or an observable variable:in the second case the factor is a vector of several yields.Regime shifts are described by a Markov chain with (historical)nonhomogeneous transition probabilities. An empirical analysisof bivariate VAR(p) and SVARN(p) Factor-Based Term StructureModels, using monthly observations of the U.S. term structureof interest rates, and a goodness-of-fit and expectation hypothesispuzzle comparison with competing models in the literature, showsthe determinant role played by the observable nature of thefactor, lags, and switching regimes in the term structure modeling.     

Intra-Industry Trade in Intermediate Goods and Final Goods in a General Equilibrium Setting

This article develops a dual general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of intra-industry trade in both intermediate goods and final goods on the productivity in the final good production. Intra-industry trade in intermediate goods determines an increase in the number of intermediate good varieties available in the final good production, and intra-industry trade in final goods determines a reduction in the number of adaptations of an intermediate good to the final good production. Thereby, the productivity in the final good production increases. Different shares of intra-industry trade in intermediate goods and final goods in a general equilibrium setting implies that Jones' magnification effect and both the Rybczynski theorem and the Stolper-Samuelson theorem are not valid.