浅论4p与4c的互补应用

4c理论是4p理论的发展，它们之间既有区别，各自又具有局限性。在市场经济条件下，企业营销单纯靠4c理论或4p理论的指导已不能适应市场的发展。只有互相结合，实现互补应用，才能发挥其巨大的作用，为企业提供尖锐的利器，使其立于不败之地。     

p2: a random effects model with covariates for directed graphs

A random effects model is proposed for the analysis of binary dyadic data that represent a social network or directed graph, using nodal and/or dyadic attributes as covariates. The network structure is reflected by modeling the dependence between the relations to and from the same actor or node. Parameter estimates are proposed that are based on an iterated generalized least-squares procedure. An application is presented to a data set on friendship relations between American lawyers.     

我国电子通信设备制造业产业政策效应测度研究

电子通信设备制造业是我国信息产业的支柱产业,近几年来发展规模不断扩大,对加速经济增长、创造就业岗位做出了巨大贡献。在新常态结构性改革过程中,产业政策支持对电子通信设备制造业的发展产生了重要影响。本文以电子通信设备制造业为研究对象,从税收优惠、政策性融资、政府研发补贴投入3个角度出发,选取2000～2014年15年的我国电子通信设备制造业的数据,创新性的运用状态空间模型与弹性系数分析方法研究3种政策支持方式对电子通信设备制造业的影响程度,进而提出促进电子通信设备制造业发展的政策和建议,为实现产业结构优化升级提供依据。     

“Buy Domestic” Campaigns and Optimal Tariffs

This paper attempts to analyze the strategic use of optimal tariffs and to examine the effects of national bias on the optimal trade policy and social welfare in a two-country, two-good, price competition model derived from Neven et al. (1991). The major findings are as follows. (1) If all consumers prefer the domestic good, then buy domestic campaigns will decrease the prohibitive tariff rate and increase local welfare. (2) If at least some consumers prefer the foreign good, but not to a great extent, then buy domestic campaigns will not change the optimal tariff rate, but may improve local welfare. (3) When all consumers greatly prefer the foreign good, then promotion of buy domestic decreases the optimal tariff rate, but it cannot improve social welfare. With this framework, we also prove that buy domestic campaigns serve as a substitute for tariffs with respect to a strategic trade policy.     

Coherent forecasting for count time series using Box–Jenkins's AR(p) model

During the last three decades, integer‐valued autoregressive process of order p [or INAR(p)] based on different operators have been proposed as a natural, intuitive and maybe efficient model for integer‐valued time‐series data. However, this literature is surprisingly mute on the usefulness of the standard AR(p) process, which is otherwise meant for continuous‐valued time‐series data. In this paper, we attempt to explore the usefulness of the standard AR(p) model for obtaining coherent forecasting from integer‐valued time series. First, some advantages of this standard Box–Jenkins's type AR(p) process are discussed. We then carry out our some simulation experiments, which show the adequacy of the proposed method over the available alternatives. Our simulation results indicate that even when samples are generated from INAR(p) process, Box–Jenkins's model performs as good as the INAR(p) processes especially with respect to mean forecast. Two real data sets have been employed to study the expediency of the standard AR(p) model for integer‐valued time‐series data.     

Unconditional tests for association in 2 × 2 contingency tables in the total sum fixed design

The asymptotic approach and Fisher's exact approach have often been used for testing the association between two dichotomous variables. The asymptotic approach may be appropriate to use in large samples but is often criticized for being associated with unacceptable high actual type I error rates for small to medium sample sizes. Fisher's exact approach suffers from conservative type I error rates and low power. For these reasons, a number of exact unconditional approaches have been proposed, which have been seen to be generally more powerful than exact conditional counterparts. We consider the traditional unconditional approach based on maximization and compare it to our presented approach, which is based on estimation and maximization. We extend the unconditional approach based on estimation and maximization to designs with the total sum fixed. The procedures based on the Pearson chi‐square, Yates's corrected, and likelihood ratio test statistics are evaluated with regard to actual type I error rates and powers. A real example is used to illustrate the various testing procedures. The unconditional approach based on estimation and maximization performs well, having an actual level much closer to the nominal level. The Pearson chi‐square and likelihood ratio test statistics work well with this efficient unconditional approach. This approach is generally more powerful than the other p‐value calculation methods in the scenarios considered.     

新岩石物理参数研究

对于非常规的储层,例如页岩气,它的储层区是脆性的。在描述不同岩石物理的参数中,杨氏模量E是衡量岩石的脆性的。计算杨氏模量E时,需要有效密度,而计算密度时需要的大偏移距地震资料通常是很难得到的。针对这种情况提出了一种新岩石物理参数E,即杨氏模量和密度的乘积,通过与属性的对比体现其在AVO叠前反演中的优势。     

关于几种不平衡指派问题的修正匈牙利解法

本文利用实例验证了在用匈牙利算法求解指派问题时,不平衡的指派问题转化为平衡指派问题的必要性;总结对于几种不平衡的指派问题转化为平衡指派问题的方法,从理论上作出解释,并给出了相应的例题,特别对于任务数多于人数的指派问题,本文提出了新的更有针对性的转化方法,如"一人化成p人法"、"加边补小法"、"加边补零(M)法"等。     

国际性专业化产业区:目标模式及现实差距--基于温州打火机产业区的分析

章围绕区域性专业化产业区如何提升为国际性专业化产业区的主题，首先阐述了国际性专业化产业区的目标模式，认为它应具备国际性产品生产基地、国际市场份额的主导占有、价格形成中心、信息与知识流转中心以及研发与创新中心等五大基本功能；在此基础上，章选取了具有典型意义的温州打火机专业化产业区作为个案研究对象，具体分析了温州打火机产业区与国际性专业化产业区目标模式相比已具备的条件及存在的差距，并相应提出了强化产业区市场势力、增强要素的国际汲取，以及推进技术创新和制度创新等对策措施。