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51.
Modeling and forecasting of stock index volatility with APARCH models under ordered restriction
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Milton Abdul Thorlie Lixin Song Muhammad Amin Xiaoguang Wang 《Statistica Neerlandica》2015,69(3):329-356
This article examines volatility models for modeling and forecasting the Standard & Poor 500 (S&P 500) daily stock index returns, including the autoregressive moving average, the Taylor and Schwert generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), the Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle GARCH and asymmetric power ARCH (APARCH) with the following conditional distributions: normal, Student's t and skewed Student's t‐distributions. In addition, we undertake unit root (augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillip–Perron) tests, co‐integration test and error correction model. We study the stationary APARCH (p) model with parameters, and the uniform convergence, strong consistency and asymptotic normality are prove under simple ordered restriction. In fitting these models to S&P 500 daily stock index return data over the period 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2012, we found that the APARCH model using a skewed Student's t‐distribution is the most effective and successful for modeling and forecasting the daily stock index returns series. The results of this study would be of great value to policy makers and investors in managing risk in stock markets trading. 相似文献
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当前,中国出口贸易增速虽然在整体层面上出现大幅下滑,但从行业层面看却表现出巨大的差异性。通过特征事实的考察和初步的相关性分析可以发现,行业层面出口增速变化表现出的差异性与全球价值链分工参与程度的差异性有关。因此在全球经济进入深度调整期,尤其是全球价值链分工边际深化难度逐步加大的背景下,以及中国经济发展进入"新常态",尤其是步入传统比较优势逐步丧失的新阶段后,中国需要依托技术进步等构筑新型比较优势,夯实进一步融入乃至扎根全球价值链的基础;另一方面,应抓住和充分利用"一带一路"倡议提供的机遇,尽快构建起中国自身的全球价值链。这不仅是实现中国出口贸易"稳增长"的战略举措,也是实现出口贸易转型升级和发展更高水平开放型经济的关键所在。 相似文献
55.
为提高无线传感器网络故障容错性和传输稳定性,实现网络负载
均衡,提出了一种仿血管路径的无线传感器网络故障容错路由算法。研究了人体血管路径特
性及属性关联,对网
络节点分区域等级标定并以不同概率值进行静态分簇,运用改进的蚁群算法BWAS(最优最差
蚂蚁系统)生成节点路
径,以路径信息素值作为传输路径的选择概率建立仿血管拓扑结构路由。因具有多条传输路
径并选择最高概率
作为传输路由, 避免了因节点或链路故障导致数据的延迟或丢失,提高了网络故障容错性和
传输稳定性,实现了网络能耗均衡。理论分析和仿真结果表明此算法具有良好性能。 相似文献
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Akaike-type criteria and the reliability of inference: Model selection versus statistical model specification 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Since the 1990s, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and its various modifications/extensions, including BIC, have found wide applicability in econometrics as objective procedures that can be used to select parsimonious statistical models. The aim of this paper is to argue that these model selection procedures invariably give rise to unreliable inferences, primarily because their choice within a prespecified family of models (a) assumes away the problem of model validation, and (b) ignores the relevant error probabilities. This paper argues for a return to the original statistical model specification problem, as envisaged by Fisher (1922), where the task is understood as one of selecting a statistical model in such a way as to render the particular data a truly typical realization of the stochastic process specified by the model in question. The key to addressing this problem is to replace trading goodness-of-fit against parsimony with statistical adequacy as the sole criterion for when a fitted model accounts for the regularities in the data. 相似文献
59.
W. John Braun 《Metrika》1999,50(2):121-129
Attributes control charts, such as c and p charts, are popular methods for detecting out of control signals when it is practical only to obtain qualitative information
about a process; in such cases, variables control charts, such as the , s and R charts, cannot be used. The run length distributions have previously been studied for variables charts when the control limits
have been estimated. Little has been done in the case of attributes charts. In this paper, the run length distributions for
the c chart and p chart are derived for the case when the control limits are estimated. It is shown that, as for variables charts, the effect
of estimation on quantities such as the average run length (ARL) can be quite dramatic, but when the underlying process is
in control, the ARL is potentially misleading as a basis for comparison.
Received: September 1998 相似文献
60.
Mark A. Covaleski Mark W. Dirsmith Stephen F. Jablonsky 《Journal of Accounting and Public Policy》1985,4(4):277-300
This paper examines the usefulness of both traditional and emergent budgeting theories to understanding budget-related behavior in a state geriatic system. The authors used an action-research methodology to acquire evidence. They conclude that the traditional and emergent theories offer differing insights into budgetary behavior and suffer from different shortcomings. Implications for researchers and practitioners are explored. 相似文献