Significant Issues for the Future: Some Additional Perspectives

The rational elements of management dominated the questions raised by our Editorial Board members in the previous issue of JPIM when they offered their ideas in, "Significant Issues For the Future of Product Innovation." In this article, the discussion is continued with some other Board members but this time the human side of managements gets its due attention. The issues presented here add to the picture of complexity that is the reality of product innovation but they also may provoke the thinking that can lead to an improvement in management performance.     

An axiomatic approach to \boldsymbol{\varepsilon}-contamination

Summary.  Suppose that an economic agent is 100% certain that uncertainty she faces is characterized by a particular probability measure, but that she has a fear that, with 100% chance, her conviction is completely wrong and she is left perfectly ignorant about the true measure in the present as well as in the future. This situation is often called -contamination of confidence. The purpose of this paper is to provide a simple set of behavioral axioms under which the decision-makers preference is represented by the Choquet expected utility with the -contamination of confidence.Received: 25 November 2002, Revised: 15 November 2004, JEL Classification Numbers:   D81. Correspondence to: Hiroyuki OzakiWe are grateful to an anonymous referee. The referees comments greatly improved the exposition of the paper. The work reported here is partially supported by a grant from the Economic and Social Research Insitute, the Cabinet Office, the Government of Japan.     

谈奥迪A6 CAN总线原理与检修

文章主要介绍奥迪A6轿车上应用的CAN总线的特点、故障波形及其故障的排除。     

基于6σ的企业流程再造

文章分析了6σ和企业流程再造（BPR）的共性和一致性,指出6σ可为BPR提供规范化原则和标准化框架,可为BPR提供更加有效的步骤和工具。最后,对基于6σ的BPR具体实施问题作了探讨。     

Private Sector Influences on Monetary Policy in the United States

I examine the extent to which the Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions are correlated with the expressed wishes of private sector lobbying groups. I update and extend work by Havrilesky (1990, 1993) regarding the effect of signals from the banking industry through the Federal Advisory Council (FAC). I also construct a new database containing statements from non-financial interest groups. I find that monetary policy actions are correlated with signals from non-financial groups before 1979 but not after, and are correlated with signals from the FAC after 1979 but not before. I also find that the Fed's policy stance more closely matches the preferred stance of the banking industry after 1979.     

International evidence on fiscal solvency: Is fiscal policy “responsible”?

We conduct a cross-country empirical analysis of fiscal solvency based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium conditions. The results show evidence of fiscal solvency, in the form of a robust positive conditional response of the primary balance to changes in public debt, in panels for emerging and industrial economies and in a combined panel. Emerging economies show a stronger response and hence converge to lower mean debt-output ratios, as observed in the data. The results are weaker for countries with debt ratios exceeding panel means and medians. Hence, we can separate countries where fiscal solvency holds from those where it remains in doubt.     

Pricing options on scenario trees

We examine valuation procedures that can be applied to incorporate options in scenario-based portfolio optimization models. Stochastic programming models use discrete scenarios to represent the stochastic evolution of asset prices. At issue is the adoption of suitable procedures to price options on the basis of the postulated discrete distributions of asset prices so as to ensure internally consistent portfolio optimization models. We adapt and implement two methods to price European options in accordance with discrete distributions represented by scenario trees and assess their performance with numerical tests. We consider features of option prices that are observed in practice. We find that asymmetries and/or leptokurtic features in the distribution of the underlying materially affect option prices; we quantify the impact of higher moments (skewness and excess kurtosis) on option prices. We demonstrate through empirical tests using market prices of the S&P500 stock index and options on the index that the proposed procedures consistently approximate the observed prices of options under different market regimes, especially for deep out-of-the-money options.     

Wage Inequality and Wage Mobility in Europe

Using data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions, this paper investigates wage inequality and wage mobility in Europe. Decomposing inequality into within‐ and between‐group inequality, we analyze to what extent wage inequality and mobility can be explained by observable characteristics. Furthermore, we investigate which individual and household characteristics determine transitions within the wage distribution. We find that overall, mobility reduces wage inequality. While a large part of wage inequality is due to unobservable characteristics, the equalizing effect of mobility mainly occurs within groups. Furthermore, both personal and household characteristics play an important role for wage transitions. Finally, our findings reveal large cross‐country differences across Europe.     

Changes in health-related quality of life: a compensating income variation approach

This paper investigates the relationship between negative changes in health and life satisfaction, using a sample from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics of Australia Survey. We use panel data models and estimate the life satisfaction impact of several different changes in health status to calculate the Compensating Income Variation (CIV) of them. Our work innovates with respect to the existing literature by using a more robust CIV method that takes account of the potential measurement error in income. Further, we produce the first set of monetary values for health losses using SF-6D utility values, one of the main measures used to estimate and value health change for economic evaluation. We show that negative changes in SF-6D are significantly associated with a reduction in life satisfaction, and the starting point matters: a drop of 0.1 in SF-6D score is associated with a decrease of 0.12 points in life satisfaction if the starting utility value is 0.8, but the effect is 100% higher if the SF-6D starting point is 0.7. More generally, we find that a 0.1 deterioration in SF-6D has a strong association with life satisfaction and that the CIV value is substantial (over US$ 120,000).     

THE IMPACT OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN COMPETITION ON SECTORAL GROWTH: A CROSS‐COUNTRY ANALYSIS

This paper examines the impact of competition on the total factor productivity (TFP) of 21 manufacturing sectors in eighteen OECD countries over the period of time 1990–2006. We assume that the source of TFP growth can be either domestic or foreign innovation or technology transfer from the technological frontier. Trade openness, R&D, and human capital can have two effects: a direct effect on TFP (e.g., through innovation) and an indirect effect depending on the productivity gap between a given country and the technological frontier. We find that tougher domestic competition is always associated with higher sectoral productivity. Both import and export penetrations are positively associated with an increase of TFP. However, the channels through which higher TFP is materialized are different: export penetration works through level effect, while import penetration acts mainly when conditional on the level of technological development. The economical magnitude of the effect is not trivial.