In sorrow to bring forth children: fertility amidst the plague of HIV

The HIV epidemic is lowering fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. This decline in fertility appears to reflect a fall in the demand for children, and not any adverse physiological consequences of the disease, as it is matched by changes in the expressed preference for children and the use of contraception, and is not significantly correlated with biological markers of sub-fecundity. A fall in fertility lowers dependency ratios and, for a given savings rate, increases future capital per person. These two effects more than offset the loss of prime working age adults and reduced human capital of orphaned children brought by the epidemic, allowing 27 of the nations of sub-Saharan Africa to cumulatively spend US$ 650 billion, or $5100 per dying adult AIDS victim, on patient care without harming the welfare of future generations. In sum, the behavioral response to the HIV epidemic creates the material resources to fight it.

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Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. In memory of Ho Hon and Nechama, terribly missed by us all.     

THE EXTENDED ECONOMETRIC INPUT–OUTPUT MODEL WITH HETEROGENEOUS HOUSEHOLD DEMAND SYSTEM

This paper proposes an extension to the regional econometric input–output model (REIM) [Conway, R.S. (1990) The Washington Projection and Simulation Model: A Regional Interindustry Econometric Model. International Regional Science Review, 13, 141–165; Israilevich, P.R., G.J.D. Hewings, M. Sonis and G.R. Schindler (1997) Forecasting Structural Change with a Regional Econometric Input–Output Model. Journal of Regional Science, 37, 565–590]. We integrate a demand system with age and income parameters into the REIM. The extended model thus addresses concerns about the effects of household heterogeneity. The initial testing is conducted with a model for the Chicago metropolitan area. First, using aggregate expenditure data by income and age groups, the almost ideal demand system with group fixed effects is constructed. Next, the estimated demand system is linked to the REIM to reflect long-term changes in the age and income distribution of households. The long-range simulation from the extended model takes into account structural changes in expenditure type stemming from changing demographic composition. The extended model further broadens the scope of impact analysis under various scenarios associated with age and income changes.     

Social Marketing: Using Stages of Change Model to Assess HIV/AIDS Testing Intentions Among University Students in Ghana

This research sought to utilize the stages of change model to assess HIV/AIDS testing intentions among university students in Ghana. A quantitative research method using a questionnaire based on a random sampling method was employed to interview 167 students of the University of Ghana Business School in Accra. The analysis of variance and one-sample t-test statistical methods were employed to establish the relationship between variables. The study found that most university students in Ghana (80.9%) are at precontemplation, contemplation, and preparation stages. This suggests that social marketing intervention programs encouraging university students to know their HIV/AIDS status have not been effective, since most university students in Ghana have not yet taken action to test for HIV/AIDS. The study also found some university students at more than one stage at a time.     

Wholesale Demand for Fish in Greece

Inverse demand systems explain price variations as functions of quantity variations. This article presents a dynamic inverse almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model based on recent developments on cointegration techniques and error correction model. The case of fish landed at Greek seaports appears to suit this model well. The results indicate that the underlying distance function is homothetic whereas the own-quantity flexibilities suggest that the responses of price to own-quantity changes are inelastic. Finally, the results of cross-quantity uncompensated flexibilities suggest that the substitution possibilities among fish grades are rather limited. The Allais interaction intensities verified the substitutability among fish grades as well.     

Food Demand in Russia: Heterogeneous Consumer Segments over Time

The Russian food system has undergone substantial changes. However, knowledge on how economic transition has affected the structural parameters of food demand is lacking. Based on a two‐stage LES‐LA/AIDS model and annual panel data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (1995–2010), we provide a comprehensive set of food demand elasticities for Russia along two dimensions. First, we estimate demand parameters for three characteristic time periods in order to trace changes during transition. Second, to account for the Russian population's diversity, we derive elasticities for five different consumer segments. These groups are established by a cluster analysis based on households' food purchases. Our findings suggest that demand for food is far from satiated in Russia. We find generally high unconditional expenditure and own‐price elasticities for food. Both expenditure and own‐price elasticities show slight decreases in absolute terms over time. Low expenditure elasticities for staple foods like bread or cereals and high values for luxury goods such as meat, alcohol and tobacco suggest considerable changes in the composition of food baskets with further income growth. Results indicate that food production at home loses in importance while more affluent households in particular increase their demand for food consumption away from home.     

某医专学生艾滋病相关知识、态度、行为调查

目的:了解医专学生艾滋病相关知识、态度、行为现状,为开展艾滋病教育教学提供科学依据。方法:采取整群随机抽样方法选取被试,对抽取的2778名医专学生进行自愿、独立、匿名问卷调查。结果:医专学生对男性同性恋的态度呈现多样性;部分学生性观念较开放;少数学生对艾滋病人和感染者持歧视、躲避、厌恶等态度;多数医专学生艾滋病的一些专业知识还是比较欠缺,常用化学消毒剂能灭活艾滋病病毒,回答正确率仅有11.88%;预设了15种艾滋病的可能传播方式,回答正确率仅有12.30%;仅有13.79%的医专学生知道安全套的使用方法,预设了7点安全套使用知识,回答正确率仅6.26%。结论:应加强医学生的艾滋病教育教学,全面提升医学生艾滋病防治知识、能力。     

从市场化程度和人口流动性看艾滋病问题--以广东省为例

从全球角度看,越是贫困的地区或国家,艾滋病问题越严重。在中国大陆,艾滋病问题最严重的省区一共有六个。其中五个属于综合性社会经济发展水平较低的省区,广东省是唯一的例外。针对广东的艾滋病问题,参照三个社会经济指数加以分析。影响广东省艾滋病疫情的两个决定性要素是较高的市场开放程度和大量外来人口所面临的健康风险。     

AIDS,longevity and long-run income

This article studies the long-run impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income and education. We focus on the disincentive to human capital accumulation given by shorter life span. We work with a continuous time overlapping generations model with education and saving decisions, calibrated for a cross-section of countries. The simulations predict that the most affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be in future, on average, 20% poorer than they would be without AIDS. Schooling will decline in some cases such as Botswana, South Africa and Zambia by more than 40%. The impact of population decline was found to be irrelevant.     

THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS ON SMALL,MEDIUM AND LARGE ENTERPRISES1

Based on the Bureau of Economic Research (BER's) 2005 HIV/AIDS survey, this paper provides a snapshot view of the nature and the extent of the impact of HIV/AIDS on companies of different sizes in South Africa, as well as their response to the epidemic. Whereas the focus of most of the previous workplace surveys has been on “evaluating workplace responses”, the present study also considers the economic impact of HIV/AIDS. This study provides evidence of the impact of HIV/AIDS on the largest sample of small, medium and large companies in South Africa to date. The survey results suggest that employer responses are strongly linked to company size, with the majority of medium and large companies indicating that they have an HIV/AIDS policy in place and small companies having done little in the way of action against the epidemic.