农业保险理论研究述评及展望

农业保险问题一直是保险学和农业经济学领域关注的热点问题,国内外学者对此做了大量研究。国外文献研究了农业保险市场失灵、政府介入农业保险市场的原因和农业保险需求,国内文献主要研究了农业保险的政策属性、财政补贴、农业保险需求和供给。这表明农业保险研究仍局限于新古典经济学的研究范式,把农业保险组织视为黑箱。本文在梳理国内外文献的基础上提出了一个新的研究视角——组织视角,并构建了农业保险组织研究的理论框架。     

Reduced Tax Progressivity in Norway in the Nineties: The Effect from Tax Changes

The inequality in pre-tax income increased in Norway in the 1990s, while the concentration of taxes remained largely unaltered. This means that tax progressivity has decreased in the period, as measured by summary indices of tax progressivity. In this paper I analyze individual income data to ascertain whether tax changes in the period can explain the observed decrease in tax progressivity. As marginal tax rates at high income levels have been substantially reduced in the period, for instance through the tax reform of 1992, it is expected that tax changes may have influenced the degree of inequality in pre-tax incomes. This behavioral effect is examined by deriving estimates of the elasticity of gross income with respect to the net-of-tax rate, obtained from various panel data regressions. The tax changes may also have shifted the distributional burden of taxes for unaltered level of pre-tax income inequality. In order to identify this (direct) effect of tax-law alterations, the same fixed distribution of pre-tax income is exposed to various tax-laws in the period.     

Capital taxation, long-run growth, and bequests

It has been shown that higher capital taxes can have a growth-enhancing effect when combined with a revenue-compensating cut in wage taxes or with an expansion in productivity-increasing public services. The present paper demonstrates that these results critically hinge on the existence of a bequest motive. It is shown that a wage-tax cut is no longer growth-enhancing when bequests are operative. By way of contrast, increasing productive public services may well boost growth. The theoretical findings are illustrated by numerical simulations based on US data.     

社会保障对收入分配差距的调节效应——基于陕西省宝鸡市住户调查数据的实证研究

社会保障具有重要的收入再分配功能,在很多国家社会保障都是调节居民收入分配差距最重要的手段。本文对陕西省宝鸡市住户调查数据的实证研究表明,社会保障转移性收入缩小了居民收入分配差距,使城乡居民收入的基尼系数下降了4.5%,其中城镇居民基尼系数下降22.8%,农村居民基尼系数下降1.82%。但由于农村居民获得的社会保障转移性收入远远低于城镇居民,从而导致城乡收入差距上升23.17%。为抑制收入分配差距的进一步扩大,中国应重视社会保障对收入分配的调节作用,进一步增加社会保障的财政投入。尤其要加大对农村社会保障的财政投入,尽快扭转社会保障对城乡收入差距的逆向调节。     

Would a Flat‐Rate Tax Stimulate Entrepreneurship in Germany? A Behavioural Microsimulation Analysis Allowing for Risk*

When potential income tax reforms are debated, the suspected impact on entrepreneurship is often used as an argument in favour of or against a certain policy. Quantitative ex‐ante evaluations of the effect of certain tax reform options on entrepreneurship are very rare, however. This paper estimates the ex‐ante effects of the German tax reform 2000 and of two hypothetical flat‐rate tax scenarios on entries into and exits out of self‐employment based on a structural microsimulation model with econometrically estimated transition rates under risk. The simulation results indicate that flatter tax systems do not encourage people to choose self‐employment, but rather discourage them from doing so. This is explained by the reduction of entrepreneurs' income risk through progressive taxation.     

高房价理性回归的金融通道

近年来,随着我国经济的快速增长和城市化进程的不断深入,我国出现了房价过快上涨的势头。高房价背后有着各种成因,抵押贷款证券化在解决高房价问题上具有合理性和可行性,保持审慎、稳健的监管,通过合理的金融市场建设和金融资源分配,房地产市场能够回归理性,房价回归正常合理的水平。     

中国省际城镇职工工资收入分布演进的时空特征

运用Kernel密度估计方法和空间马尔科夫链分析方法,并将空间因素纳入分析框架中,对1978—2009年期间中国省际城镇职工工资收入分布演进的时空特征进行了分析。研究结果表明:从时间动态性看,中国省际城镇职工工资收入的差距正逐步固化和深化,多俱乐部收敛特征明显、贫困陷阱问题日益突出;从空间动态性看,近邻效应对省际城镇职工工资收入分布演进存在一定影响,多数省份的工资收入水平向邻区的平均工资收入水平演进。     

收入差距、位置消费与社会稳定

适度、合理的收入差距,不仅是激励人们竞争,促进发展的重要务件,也是位置消费产生的基本条件;但过分悬殊的收入差距则不仅会影响人们的社会心理,不利于提高有效消费,而且可能产生畸形的位置消费行为,甚至会因此影响社会的稳定.在分析和研究目前收入分配问题时,应当从位置消费的新视角研究它们对社会稳定的影响.研究位置消费有利于我们从人们相互比较的满意度中观察改革的效果,权衡各项利弊得失,并及时地采取微调措施,尽可能地减少改革的摩擦和阻力.     

多元化农业推广组织发展研究

经过30年的改革与探索,我国农业推广组织现已形成多元化的雏形。目前影响最大的农业推广组织主要有5种类型,即行政型农业推广组织、教育型农业推广组织、科研型农业推广组织、企业型农业推广组织和自助型农业推广组织。本文针对各类推广组织的特征,探讨了其内部结构优化的主要对策。强调行政型农业推广组织要改革和完善基层农业推广组织体系,加强体系内的分工与协作,通过制度创新提高资源配置的效率;教育型农业推广组织要深化高校科技管理制度改革,创新推广运行机制与实施方式;科研型农业推广组织要转变科研导向,优化部门与单位设置,创新管理体制和规章制度;企业型农业推广组要注重技术创新和制度创新并进,建立风险防范机制,强化农业企业发展的社会责任;自助型农业推广组织要加强组织管理,完善组织制度,改进推广服务方式与手段。