Accounting for the business cycle: Nominal rigidities, factor heterogeneity, and Austrian capital theory

An Austrian interpretation of the New Keynesian small menu cost model of the business cycle is proposed. Austrian and New Keynesian business cycle theories share the feature that the cycle is generated by rigidities which prevent the economy from adapting instantaneously to changing conditions. Austrian business cycle theory is capital-based, focusing on credit expansion which artificially lowers interest rates and causes an investment boom and unsustainable business expansion. In contrast, the New Keynesian small menu cost model of the business cycle is based on nominal rigidities which prevent markets from clearing. Small menu costs introduce dichotomous behavior, where firms find it locally optimal to avoid instantaneous output price adjustments in the face of the cost, but this local optimum results in economy-wide output and employment fluctuations which are much greater in relative magnitude. The small menu cost model of the business cycle is extended and reinterpreted in light of Austrian business cycle theory with heterogeneous, multiply-specific capital, thus providing a rigorous formalization of the Austrian business cycle. The Austrian interpretation of this New Keynesian model fortuitously addresses several of its shortcomings. JEL classification B53, E12, E23, E32     

Trade and Indeterminacy in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

This paper introduces sector-specific externalities in the Heckscher-Ohlin two-country dynamic general equilibrium model to show that indeterminacy of the equilibrium path in the world market can occur. Under certain conditions in terms of factor intensities, there are multiple equilibrium paths from the same initial distribution of capital in the world market, and the distribution of capital in the limit differs among equilibrium paths. One equilibrium path converges to a long-run equilibrium in which the international ranking of factor endowment ratios differs from the initial ranking; another equilibrium path maintains the initial ranking and converges to another long-run equilibrium. Since the path realized is indeterminate, so is the long-run trade pattern. Therefore, the Long-Run Heckscher-Ohlin prediction is vulnerable to the introduction of externality. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E13, E32, F11, F43.     

Commodity price cycles and heterogeneous speculators: a STAR–GARCH model

We propose an empirical commodity market model with heterogeneous speculators. While the power of trend-extrapolating chartists is constant over time, the symmetric impact of stabilizing fundamentalists adjusts endogenously according to market circumstances: Using monthly data for various commodities such as cotton, sugar or zinc, our STAR–GARCH model indicates that their influence positively depends on the distance between the commodity price and its long-run equilibrium value. Fundamentalists seem to become more and more convinced that mean reversion will set in as the mispricing enlarges. Commodity price cycles may thus emerge due to the nonlinear interplay between different trader types. The paper represents the authors’ personal opinion and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Deutsche Bundesbank.     

宏观投资的影响因素与实证分析

在界定宏观投资的基础上，选择储蓄、价格、利润和利率等影响因素的代表变量，建立固定资产投资的理论模型；以1985－1999年为样本区间，采用SPSS统计分析软件包，对变量数据进行相关性分析和主成分分析，构建我国固定资产投资的回归模型；通过实证分析得出我国固定资产投资各影响因素的结论并给出相应的政策含义。     

企业物流成本核算研究综述

总结企业物流成本核算的内容、模式及方法,指出现行核算体系存在的主要问题,并探讨企业物流成本核算的研究方向.     

基于战略联盟的第三方物流供应商管理研究

第三方物流供应商（TPLP）战略联盟的建立是提高第三方物流企业竞争优势的重要途径，对TPLP的发展有着重要意义。适合TPLP的战略联盟模式有：联盟生产制造企业、联盟零售企业、与其它TPLP联盟、以及TPL与生产商和零售商的联盟。TPLP的战略联盟管理是一个动态的过程，为了稳固和发展联盟的伙伴关系，就要注重TPLP战略联盟伙伴的选择、规避战略联盟风险、加强交流沟通，实现多层次合作以及对联盟的业绩进行评估。     

自动货仓控制模型的实现

本文简单介绍了建立一个自动货仓控制模型的过程。首先挺出模型的要求．然后进行硬件的配置．并给出模型的工作方式，最后划分四个功能模块来实现该模型．这四个功能模块分别为：数据库模块、通信模块、执行模块、打印模块。     

论企业文化在塑造核心竞争力诸因素中的核心地位

本文借鉴7S模型分析了塑造企业核心竞争力的影响因素和途径,运用文献和案例论证了企业文化在塑造核心竞争力的各因素中居于核心地位,指出了塑造核心竞争力的途径是运用先进的企业文化培育和谐的7S体系。     

基于提前期和价格折扣的延迟交货和库存策略研究

研究了基于提前期和价格折扣的延迟交货和库存策略,其中的价格折扣是基于提前期的价格折扣,即当出现缺货而不能在既定的提前期内交货时,企业就会提供一个价格折扣,这时会有一部分顾客愿意等待,直到订单被满足,即延迟交货。其中,愿意等待延迟交货的比例跟提前期成反比关系,提前期的各部分都可以通过增加成本来实现压缩。     

村镇连锁经营配送系统关键技术问题分析

论文充分考虑村镇连锁经营配送系统的影响因素．对村镇连锁经营配送系统中的配送中心规划仿真技术和城乡双向物流问题进行深入的技术分析．同时提出了典型的村镇连锁经营管理与配送决策模型。