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81.
Clive W. J. Granger 《Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics》2003,65(Z1):689-701
The paper asks the question – as time series analysis moves from consideration of conditional mean values and variances to unconditional distributions, do some of the familiar concepts devised for the first two moments continue to be helpful in the more general area? Most seem to generalize fairly easy, such as the concepts of breaks, seasonality, trends and regime switching. Forecasting is more difficult, as forecasts become distributions, as do forecast errors. Persistence can be defined and also common factors by using the idea of a copula. Aggregation is more difficult but causality and controllability can be defined. The study of the time series of quantiles becomes more relevant. 相似文献
82.
David G. McMillan 《Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics》2003,65(5):557-573
Linear predictability of stock market returns has been widely reported. However, recently developed theoretical research has suggested that due to the interaction of noise and arbitrage traders, stock returns are inherently non‐linear, whereby market dynamics differ between small and large returns. This paper examines whether an exponential smooth transition threshold model, which is capable of capturing this non‐linear behaviour, can provide a better characterization of UK stock market returns than either a linear model or an alternate non‐linear model. The results of both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample specification tests support the exponential smooth transition threshold model and hence the belief that investor behaviour does differ between large and small returns. 相似文献
83.
氟化工新产品的市场前景及发展建议 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本文重点论述了氟化工新品的市场状况及在工业上的应用,针对氟化工行业发展现状,提出应采取的主要措施。 相似文献
84.
Demand fluctuations and capacity utilization under duopoly 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Summary. This paper studies the impact of uncertain demand on firms’ capacity decisions when they operate in an oligopolistic environment.
We define a two-stage game where firms choose capacity in the first stage without knowing which state of Nature is going to
realize, and output levels in the second, knowing which state is realized. We prove the existence of a symmetric subgame perfect
equilibrium at which firms are in excess capacity compared with the capacity they would choose in the Cournot certainty equivalent
game.
Received: May 17, 1996; revised version July 31, 1996 相似文献
85.
Dominique Lepelley 《Review of Economic Design》1994,1(1):289-299
Consider a three-alternative election with n voters and assume that preferences are single-peaked. LetC(λ,n) be the Condorcet efficiency of the rule that assigns 1,λ and 0 points (respectively) to each first, second and third place vote. An exact representation is obtained forC(λ,∞). This relation shows that Borda rule (λ=1/2) is not the most efficient rule. In addition to this result, exact closed form relations are provided forC(0,n),C(1/2,n) andC(1,n). All these relations are obtained by assuming that every admissible configuration of preferences is equally likely to occur.
This research was supported in part by the Swedish Insitute 相似文献
86.
87.
Summary Using Silverman and Young’s (1987) idea of rescaling a rescaled smoothed empirical distribution function is defined and investigated
when the smoothing parameter depends on the data. The rescaled smoothed estimator is shown to be often better than the commonly
used ordinary smoothed estimator. 相似文献
88.
Shouyong Shi 《Economic Theory》1997,10(1):99-133
Summary. This paper examines the relationship between specialization and the use of money in two versions of the search-theoretic
monetary model. The first version establishes a surprising result that specialization is more likely to occur in a barter
economy than in a monetary economy. The result is reversed in the second version where a different specification of preferences
is adopted to limit the scope of barter. This contrast between the results provides a concrete illustration of the general
argument that money encourages specialization only when it enlarges the extent of the market.
Received: January 31, 1995; revised version August 12, 1996 相似文献
89.
Michael Barrow 《Fiscal Studies》2003,24(3):361-381
The UK will introduce in 2004 a system of tradable permits for the landfill of municipal waste, in response to an EU directive setting limits on such activity. Tradable permits are becoming an increasingly popular method of dealing with some environmental issues — for example, sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions in the USA. This paper describes the background to the landfill proposals and provides an analysis of how the permit system might work. Estimates are made of the possible savings in compliance costs of a permit system compared with a conventional ‘command–and–control’ approach. These estimates are subject to a considerable degree of uncertainty, related to factors discussed in the paper. 相似文献
90.
Licheng Sun 《The Journal of Financial Research》2003,26(3):389-404
In this article I provide new evidence on the role of nonlinear drift and stochastic volatility in interest rate modeling. I compare various model specifications for the short‐term interest rate using the data from five countries. I find that modeling the stochastic volatility in the short rate is far more important than specifying the shape of the drift function. The empirical support for nonlinear drift is weak with or without the stochastic volatility factor. Although a linear drift stochastic volatility model fits the international data well, I find that the level effect differs across countries. 相似文献