Long-term interest rates,risk premia and unconventional monetary policy

We study two kinds of unconventional monetary policies: announcements about the future path of the short-term rate and long-term nominal interest rates as operating instruments of monetary policy. We do so in a model where the risk premium on long-term debt is, in part, endogenously determined. We find that both policies are consistent with unique equilibria, that, at the zero lower bound, announcements about the future path of the short-term rate can lower long-term interest rates through their impact both on expectations and on the risk premium and that long-term interest rate rules perform as well as, and at times better than, conventional Taylor rules. With simulations, we show that long-term interest rate rules generate sensible dynamics both when in operation and when expected to be applied.     

The impact of Chinese monetary policy shocks on East and South‐East Asia1

We study the effects of Chinese monetary policy shocks on China's major trading partners in East and South‐East Asia by estimating structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models for six economies in the region. We find that a monetary expansion in Mainland China leads to an increase in real GDP (temporary) and the price level (permanent) in a number of economies in our sample, most notably in Hong Kong and the Philippines. The impact could result from intertemporal substitution present in a general equilibrium framework, which allows for positive domestic impacts of foreign monetary expansions. Our results emphasize the growing importance of China for its neighbouring economies and the significance of Chinese shocks for the design of monetary policy in Asian economies.     

通货膨胀与中国宏观经济政策的困境

2008年,中国经济再度经历了通货膨胀。通货膨胀成因复杂,属于一种混合型通货膨胀。在物价上涨的袁象下面,隐藏着经济制度的缺陷和经济结构的根本性失衡。受制度本身和一些内在因素的影响,宏观经济政策面临困境。必须采取短期和长期措施,在治理通货膨胀的同时,尽快转变经济增长方式,完善基本经济制度。     

双重激励下地方政府发展新兴产业的动机与策略研究

本文建立了政策执行的双重激励模型,探索政治激励、经济激励与地方政府政策执行方式的相互关系。通过考察新能源汽车产业政策在地方层面的执行情况,笔者发现,地方政府执行中央政府产业政策的实质动机是经济激励。由于新兴产业的市场回报无法现时兑现,且其发展前景与本地的资源禀赋情况密切相关,因此对地方政府的经济激励呈现很大的不确定性和差异性。地方政府故而在平衡经济发展和政治晋升的情况下作出实动、暗动、伪动、缓动等不同选择。本文进一步提出了新兴产业政策制定和执行的启示。     

近期债券市场基本面分析与展望

该文认为,外需放缓导致国内经济增速放缓,年内通货膨胀将呈前高后低走势,1季度将成为通胀高点,加息概率依然较大,短期内债券市场将维持当前的震荡格局,但仍不失资金配置良机,相对而言,长期国债,短期融资券的投资价值较大。     

基层电力生产企业安全文化建设初探

文章阐述了基层电力生产企业建设企业安全文化的重要性,并从过程教育、责任制、措施标准化、应怠处置等方面对其进行了探讨。     

Barriers to innovation through public procurement: A supplier perspective

Public procurement is increasingly viewed as having important potential to drive innovation. Despite this interest, numerous barriers prevent the public sector from acting as an intelligent and informed customer. This paper seeks to understand how barriers related to processes, competences, procedures and relationships in public procurement influence suppliers? ability to innovate and to reap the benefits of innovation. We address this by exploiting a dedicated survey of public sector suppliers in the UK, using a probit model to investigate the influence of structural, market and innovation determinants on suppliers? perception of these barriers.     

物流政策评价及体系构建——基于上海、深圳、宁波的对比

物流业正处在从传统向现代转化的关键时期,政府的政策体系对物流业健康发展起着关键作用。本文从宁波物流政策现状出发,通过与国家宏观物流政策、上海与深圳市物流政策的对比分析,对宁波市物流政策现状进行了评价。认为,宁波市物流政策紧跟国家宏观政策,部分政策支持力度走在全国前列,与上海、深圳市基本处于同一水平,但还存在政策体系不够完善,政策前瞻性不够等问题。在此基础上,构建了宁波市物流政策体系框架,针对性地提出了建议,即可通过制定产业联动优惠政策、物流安全与环保政策、物流技术推广政策、创建物流信息收集与统计制度等来完善物流政策体系。     

由政府4万亿投资所想到

2008年11月5日国务院出台了4万亿的经济刺激方案,又提出了通过扩大内需的战略来削减国外金融危机冲击和国内经济周期的不利影响。文章通过回顾1998年以来我国实行积极的财政政策所取得的成效,认为对于我们认识和优化当前积极的财政政策和深化扩大内需的战略有着重要的借鉴意义。