The distribution of benefits from public international germplasm banks: the case of beans in Latin America

The unrestricted international flow of genetic resources from international genebank collections is the source of perhaps one of the greatest impacts of international agricultural research. This paper examines the distribution across countries in Latin America of benefits generated from bean genetic resources held by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). The genealogies of commercial bean cultivars released since 1976, containing materials from the collection, are analysed to calculate for each country the source of the genetic resources used. All countries in the region are shown to be heavily dependent on imported genetic resources for their commercial cultivars. From the available information on the economic impact of these improved bean varieties, the share of economic productivity benefits associated with imported germplasm by country of origin is calculated. The benefits received by each country from improved bean germplasm are compared with the contribution of that country's germplasm to other countries. Some of the patterns in the flow and use of genetic resources are analysed.     

Evaluating the impact of rising fertilizer prices on crop yields

Because of tensions on fossil energy and phosphorus markets, the rise in fertilizer prices observed during the last decades may continue in the future, putting into question production pathways relying heavily on crop intensification. To evaluate how, in this context, economic choices may alter crop yields, we first construct different fertilizer price scenarios to 2050 based on an econometric relation with oil and gas prices. Other possible scenarios, such as the continuation of historical trends, are also considered. The resulting changes in fertilizer price range between +0.8% and +3.6% per year over the 2005–2050 period. These scenarios are tested in a global land‐use model incorporating an endogenous representation of the land–fertilizer substitution. We find that the supply‐side response to rising fertilizer prices could lower crop yields in 2050 from ?6% to ?13%, with a corresponding increase in global cropland area ranging between 100 and 240 Mha if the demand for food and nonfood products has to be met. The sensitivity of these results is tested with regard to assumptions on food consumption, change in potential yield and nutrient use efficiency.     

长白山区作物气候生产力及其地理分布的研究

本文建立了长白山区玉米、水稻和大豆的气候可能产量模式和地理分布模型,计算了各地的气候生产潜力,并进行了地形影响订正。结果表明,长白山区主要农作物气候生产力的地理分布特征主要取决于地势、地形和经度,气候生产力随着海拔的升高按照三次抛物线函数递减,随着经度的升高按照线性函数递减。主要山体的南、西南坡气候生产力较高,北、东北坡气候生产力较低。该项研究为长白山区农业立体开发提供了综合气候生态依据。     

广东省耕地后备资源开发利用潜力分析

本文利用“广东省耕地后备资源调查评价”的工作成果，详细分析了广东近期内可供开发利用的耕地后备资源的潜力和利用方向，并从地理优势和经济优势以及经验优势几个方面对开发利用的可行性进行探讨。     

Agricultural pesticides and land use intensification in high,middle and low income countries

We study levels and trends in agricultural pesticide use for a large cross-section of countries using FAO data for the period 1990–2009. Our analysis shows that a 1% increase in crop output per hectare is associated with a 1.8% increase in pesticide use per hectare but that the growth in intensity of pesticide use levels off as countries reach a higher level of economic development. However, very few high income countries have managed to significantly reduce the level of intensity of their pesticide use, because decreases in insecticide use at higher income levels are largely offset by increases in herbicide and fungicide use. The results also show very rapid growth in the intensity of pesticide use for several middle income countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, Cameroon, Malaysia and Thailand. Complementing our analysis with data from the Rotterdam Convention on Prior Informed Consent (PIC), we show that hazardous pesticides covered in the PIC procedure are more weakly regulated in lower than in higher income countries. We discuss the policy challenges facing developing countries with a rapid growth in pesticide use and recommend a four-pronged strategy, including an environmental tax on pesticides with revenues allocated to long-term investments in awareness building, the development of integrated crop management methods and the setting of food safety standards. The interactions between these measures should help contribute to the effectiveness of the overall strategy package.     

Coping with drought with innovative pricing systems: the case of two irrigation water management companies in France

In recent years, France has been facing particularly severe drought periods especially in summer. In a country where agriculture is the largest water user, some irrigation management companies have implemented innovative pricing systems to handle this situation. The objective of this article is to analyze the impact of these new management systems on farmers’ incomes, the revenue of the management companies, and the amount of water used. To do that, we develop a methodology using a stochastic model that simulates the representative farmer's optimal behavior in a context of climatic variability. An empirical application is made with a crop growth model and data collected from the Midi‐Pyrenees region. The results show that using these specific nonlinear pricing systems allow irrigation water managers to reduce the impact of drought on production. Moreover, the type of pricing implemented depends on the characteristics and capabilities of the water company. More particularly, these pricing systems can be used to anticipate agricultural water demand in order to avoid imbalance with water availability.     

Vulnerability to stunting in the West African Sahel

This paper presents a simple simulation framework for understanding and analyzing vulnerability to stunting. We utilize Demographic and Health Surveys merged with satellite data on climatic shocks. Children aged 0–5 years are grouped into three categories: consistently stunted, vulnerable, and non-vulnerable. The first group constitutes those who are stunted and will also be stunted in any hypothetical period. Non-vulnerable are those whose likelihood to be stunted is zero. The vulnerable face a probability between 0 and 1 of being stunted. The probability is calculated as the share of years in which the child would be stunted, given the village level distribution of weather shocks over the period 2000–2013. We provide estimates of vulnerability to stunting in Burkina Faso, Northern Ghana, Mali, Northern Nigeria, and Senegal by aggregating over villages, districts and countries.     

A worldwide analysis of trend in crop yields and yield variability: Evidence from FAO data

The trend in crop yields and yield variability affects food security and impact agricultural and food policies. Recent studies in this area have either focused only on one country or performed global analysis on a handful of crops. We provide the first worldwide analysis of trend and variability for 8088 country-crop yield series taken from the FAO database, employing a robust estimator to cope with the adverse statistical effects of outliers. More than half of the series display a slowdown in yield growth due to a closing of the gap between realised and attainable yields as well as to agricultural policies promoting more sustainable agricultural practices. Around one fourth of the series show also an increase in yield variability as a consequence of climate change and changes in farm management practices. Yield variability is highest in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Middle East and North Africa, where food security may be threatened.     

Assessment of land use and land cover changes and valuation of carbon stocks in the Sergipe semiarid region,Brazil: 1992–2030

The semiarid region in the state of Sergipe, Brazil, approximately 11,000 km², has experienced high deforestation rates in the last decades, which ultimately contribute to global climatic changes. The valuation of ecosystem services of CO₂ sequestration can support definition of environmental policies to decrease deforestation in that region. This study aimed to assess land use and land cover changes in the Sergipe semiarid region between 1992 and 2017 by applying remotely sensed data and technics; simulate the land use and land cover changes between 2017 and 2030 by applying a cellular automaton model, by assuming current land use trends (Business as Usual – BAU) as a reference scenario, and a more conservative scenario (Protected Forest – PF), in which was assumed an effective enforcement of the Brazilian Forest Code established in 2012; simulate the carbon stocks by 2017 assuming the BAU and PF scenarios by 2030, and estimate the Carbon balance between the 2030 and 2017 scenarios; and estimate the economic valuation of carbon emission and sequestration by using the InVEST software. The results showed that agriculture (cropped lands) was main driver of the landscape changes in the study area, which increased 14% by 2017, a net increase of 1494.45 km². The results showed that the total Carbon emissions would reach 736,900 Mg CO₂-eq by assuming the BAU scenario, which would increase the cost of opportunity up to US$ 17.7 million and a social carbon cost varying between US$ 10.3 and US$ 30.2 million. The restoration of the permanent preservation areas could contribute to increase Carbon sequestration up to 481,900 Mg CO₂-eq by 2030, which is equivalent cost of US$ 11.6 million. The natural landscape in the Sergipe semiarid region was strongly affected by deforestation activities occurred between 1992 and 2017. It requires, therefore, effective actions to support and promote restoration of degraded areas. The forested areas within the Sergipe semiarid region were the most affected type of vegetation because of expansion of agricultural fields soil exposures (Exposed Land). Environmental assessments based on scenarios and economic valuations can provide crucial information to support policy and decision makers to improve strategies for environmental management and conservation.     

A Livelihood and Farming System approach for effective conservation policies in Protected Areas of Developing Countries: The case study of the Niassa National Reserve in Mozambique

Effective conservation requires that conservation policies and management decisions first target local actors who are dependent on natural resource use in Protected Areas (PA) of Developing Countries (DC). In rural areas of DCs, these actors are mainly farmers who also rely on off-farm activities such as harvest of Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) to complement their livelihoods. Here, we propose a novel approach to support the development of policy interventions aimed at achieving conservation goals through the sustainable development of local people in PAs of DCs. The approach consists in identifying the main Livelihood and Farming Systems (LFS) and select those that are more conservation-friendly, and that may contribute to solve conservation and development problems such as Human-wildlife conflict. Identifying the existing LFS can also help in searching for conservation-relevant improvements that can contribute to local people wellbeing, considering the existing FS as the starting point for a sustainable development strategy in PAs of DC. Data from the Niassa National Reserve (NNR), the largest PA in Mozambique, were used to develop this LFS approach. Measures of effort applied in harvesting NTFPs and in managing agricultural inputs and outputs were collected from 329 households through a structured survey. Cluster analysis was performed to identify and characterise the main LFS in the NNR. Based on the cluster results, we have identified four livelihood systems (LS): gatherers, hunters, farmers and employees; four farming systems (FS): specialized in maize, rice and sorghum, and a mixed FS. A Multinomial Logistic Model was also applied to understand the drivers of LFS choice. Livelihood systems were mainly driven by household-level socio-economic factors, while FS were driven by village-level biophysical conditions. Households who were employed and had diversified farming and off-farm activities were better off and more resilient to climate change and crop-raiding animals. Intensification appears to occur gradually but has found to be limited by rainfall availability. Based on our findings, we propose that conservation experts and policy-makers should use a LFS approach to re-frame the conservation narrative in PAs of DCs and promote the existing practices that can better protect biodiversity while improving livelihood and welfare of local people.