The effects of climatic variation on rice production in Sri Lanka

We study the responsiveness of rice production to climatic variation using a recent pseudo-panel data set from Sri Lanka. Output per farm is modelled as a non-linear function of temperature and rainfall (and other standard controls) using fixed effects regressions. We find that both climatic variables have concave, non-monotonic effects upon production, and that output is close to maximized at current climatic values. This implies that variations in growing conditions are likely to have negative effects upon production. Random simulations are used to model these impacts under various climate change scenarios, and we find that increasing temperatures will adversely affect rice production much more than varying rainfall, although the effects of a small ceteris paribus rise in temperature are positive. As rice production is a key component in economic output for Sri Lanka and other developing countries, our results have implications for food policy and poverty management in the future.     

Impact of CAP Subsidies on Technical Efficiency of Crop Farms in Germany,the Netherlands and Sweden

This paper analyses the impacts of CAP reforms, particularly subsidies on technical efficiency of crop farms. An output distance function is employed and estimated together with an inefficiency effects model to capture the effects of CAP subsidies and farmer characteristics on farm efficiency. The model is applied to FADN data (period 1995–2004) of crop farms in Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden. The study shows that the 10‐year average technical efficiency is 64% in Germany, 76% in the Netherlands and 71% in Sweden. The average annual changes in technical efficiency are 0.1%, 0.4% and 2.3%, respectively. The share of crop subsidies in total subsidies has a negative impact on technical efficiency in Germany but a positive impact in Sweden, although insignificant in the Netherlands. The share of total subsidies in total farm revenues has negative impacts on technical efficiency in all three countries, consistent with income and insurance effects. Positive (negative) change in technical efficiency is mainly attributable to farm size (degree of specialisation) in Germany, and degree of specialisation (degree of subsidy dependence) in the Netherlands and Sweden.     

加速科技成果转化为国际标准的策略研究

目前,国际标准已成为国际贸易游戏规则的重要组成部分,但我国近年来产生的大量科技成果与专利并未转化为国际标准。因此,选择具有潜力的科技成果,并予以支持,促使其转化为国际标准对我国的发展具有重要的战略意义。从科技成果转化为国际标准的指标体系设计入手,研究了层次分析法和模糊综合评价在科技成果转化为国际标准潜力评价中的应用,在此基础上建立了科技成果转化为国际标准的项目分层体系,并提出了国际标准研制的推进策略。     

Demand for area crop insurance among litchi producers in northern Vietnam

This study examines the need for crop insurance for litchi production in northern Vietnam and how farmers might participate in such a program. Hypothetical insurance programs were developed which proposed all‐risk coverage based on area yields. This coverage was offered to farmers to determine both their interest in the program and how insurance features and farmer characteristics affected their decision to buy insurance. Farmers were also surveyed regarding their production practices, price and yield expectations, and financial and personal characteristics. Even before considering other program costs and government budget constraints, there is not a strong case for establishing a crop insurance program here. Results indicate that while farmer participation would be significant, crop insurance is not needed to achieve policy goals like raising farmer income or guaranteeing subsistence levels of income. Crop insurance is not needed to promote litchi production, which is already expanding rapidly due to its high profitability relative to other farm enterprises. In their choice of coverages, farmers preferred higher yield guarantee levels and lower indemnity prices. Estimated premiums were quite low when expressed as a percent of expected revenue, and farmers were not responsive to changes in premiums. Econometric analysis indicated that high income farmers were more likely to participate, but other farmer characteristics seemed to matter little. Anecdotal evidence suggested that farmers believed the expected area yields used to set insurance coverage levels were too low. Because litchi productivity varies significantly by tree age and the litchi planted area is expanding rapidly, determining appropriate values for expected area yields and insurance coverage levels appeared to be the biggest challenge in program design. It is hypothesized that additional farmer education about the relationship between area and farm yields and other aspects of area insurance could improve such a program's operation. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.     

Integrated assessment of cropping patterns under different policy scenarios in Quzhou County,North China Plain

Agricultural land use is affected by government policies and leads to different consequences of regional sustainability. In this work, changes in cropping patterns including acreage, cropping locations and management-related environmental impacts were simulated under various policy scenarios for Quzhou County, China. This county is in China's major agricultural region, the North China Plain. Four dominant crop systems were categorized (winter wheat/summer maize, winter wheat/summer maize/spring maize, cotton, and vegetables) and analyzed, following two alternative policy scenarios that either prioritized government funding to subsidize crop production (“subsidy” scenario) or promoted advanced irrigation techniques (“technique” scenario). Input–output coefficients for all four crop systems were determined, mainly irrigation demand, yield, and price of produce, but other factors like a limited area of arable land and scarce regional water resources were also considered. For the simulation, a LINDO Inc. system was linked with the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model. Temporal changes of crop systems were simulated with the LINDO system, whereas spatial dynamics of cropping patterns were simulated with the CLUE model, based on land suitability maps. The results show that crop patterns changed variably with time under the two scenarios, and water availability was the primary constraint on sustainability of land use. Under the subsidy scenario, winter wheat/summer maize/spring maize became dominant across the entire county, replacing other crop systems. In contrast, the vegetable system gradually occupied farmland surrounding the township under the technique scenario. The different policies produced opposite consequences for regional sustainability. Although a “subsidy” policy contributed to farmers’ income, it did not encourage water conservation for sustainable crop production, leading to land abandonment because of water shortage. In contrast, the “technique” policy partially cut direct financial benefits to farmers, but promoted water conservation and made a substantial contribution to agricultural sustainability.     

Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling

Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land‐use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. Aggregation in space and time leads to information losses that can determine climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land‐use patterns because often aggregation is across steep gradients from low to high impacts or from increases to decreases. The four climate change impact scenarios supplied here were designed to represent the most significant impacts (high emission scenario only, assumed ineffectiveness of carbon dioxide fertilization on agricultural yields, no adjustments in management) but are consistent with the assumption that changes in agricultural practices are covered in the economic models. Globally, production of individual crops decrease by 10–38% under these climate change scenarios, with large uncertainties in spatial patterns that are determined by both the uncertainty in climate projections and the choice of impact model. This uncertainty in climate impact on crop productivity needs to be considered by economic assessments of climate change.     

试论组建种植业巨灾保险专业合作社

我国幅员辽阔,地理气候条件复杂,自然灾害多且发生频繁。农业特别是种植业,主要依靠自然条件露天作业,抵御自然灾害的能力差,受自然灾害的影响大。虽然我国的农业保险在近些年来得到了较快的发展,但是至今还未形成一种抵御巨灾的农业保险机制。本文通过研究保险的运作机理和农业合作经济组织的内涵,综合两者的组织运行机制,试图组建一个全国性的种植业巨灾保险专业合作社。     

Crop insurance policies and purchases in France

While many crop insurance systems have been reformed around the world, few academic researches have addressed the determinants of the decision on crop insurance at the farm's micro level. In this article, both the financial and the agricultural literature lead to the identification of many rationales for the crop insurance decision. Using data from the period 2003–2006 on a representative survey of French farms (FADN‐RICA), we investigate the different factors that incite farmers to insure against crop risk. We emphasize that the highest risk farms are more likely to have insurance and this decision is positively related to the past amount of claims. Insurance is subscribed by larger farms because insurance appears too expensive for smaller farms, which are indeed naturally less diversified. Interestingly, financial variables (such as capital structure or return on investment) do not significantly determine the insurance decision.     

Economic valuation of the vulnerability of world agriculture confronted with pollinator decline

There is mounting evidence of pollinator decline all over the world and consequences in many agricultural areas could be significant. We assessed these consequences by measuring 1) the contribution of insect pollination to the world agricultural output economic value, and 2) the vulnerability of world agriculture in the face of pollinator decline. We used a bioeconomic approach, which integrated the production dependence ratio on pollinators, for the 100 crops used directly for human food worldwide as listed by FAO. The total economic value of pollination worldwide amounted to €153 billion, which represented 9.5% of the value of the world agricultural production used for human food in 2005. In terms of welfare, the consumer surplus loss was estimated between €190 and €310 billion based upon average price elasticities of − 1.5 to − 0.8, respectively. Vegetables and fruits were the leading crop categories in value of insect pollination with about €50 billion each, followed by edible oil crops, stimulants, nuts and spices. The production value of a ton of the crop categories that do not depend on insect pollination averaged €151 while that of those that are pollinator-dependent averaged €761. The vulnerability ratio was calculated for each crop category at the regional and world scales as the ratio between the economic value of pollination and the current total crop value. This ratio varied considerably among crop categories and there was a positive correlation between the rate of vulnerability to pollinators decline of a crop category and its value per production unit. Looking at the capacity to nourish the world population after pollinator loss, the production of 3 crop categories - namely fruits, vegetables, and stimulants - will clearly be below the current consumption level at the world scale and even more so for certain regions like Europe. Yet, although our valuation clearly demonstrates the economic importance of insect pollinators, it cannot be considered as a scenario since it does not take into account the strategic responses of the markets.     

Modeling economic and agro-environmental dynamics of potato production systems

Crop rotation and other input management practices are of particular interest for their potential impacts on economic and agro-environmental components of potato production. Although crop yield and experimental impacts of rotations of grains, oilseed and legume crops have been published for several experimental studies in Canada there are few models related to the economic and environmental dynamics of potato production. We describe a dynamic model which integrates environmental and economic processes in potato production. The potato rotation model consists of interconnected modules of irrigation and precipitation, soil characteristics, soil erosion, soil water, phosphorus, nitrogen, soil organic matter, farming operations, crop yield and the related calculation of economic return. While not all aspects of crop production have been interlinked, including nitrogen carry-over, this model is the first step in the analysis of experimental data for irrigated potato rotations conducted in southern Manitoba.