对中国日化品牌复兴与行业崛起的几点思考

中国日化行业在经历了20世纪80年代短暂的辉煌之后,自90年代外资品牌进入我国日化市场以来,中高端市场几乎被外资品牌垄断。本土品牌只能在低端市场发展、举步维艰。因此从市场供需两个方面对本土日化品牌复兴崛起的现象和可能性进行研究,探究行业自身发展瓶颈,寻求拯救民族日化企业之路。     

A study on financial opportunity costs of growing local varieties of sorghum in Ethiopia: Implications for on-farm conservation policy

The increasing interest in on-farm conservation is driven by its diverse attractive features — its participatory nature and its flexible and dynamic features; its capacity to maintain not only crop diversity but the knowledge that evolves with it; and the chance it offers to link conservation with utilization and farmers' livelihoods. To implement this strategy on a sustainable basis, policy incentives are crucial. This paper argues that opportunity costs farmers face have a role to play to design sound policy incentives. Taking sorghum as an example, opportunity costs have been examined in this paper using data collected from 198 farmers in Eastern Ethiopia. The average opportunity costs suggest the size of the required policy incentives and they are the basis to estimate the national conservation costs for on-farm conservation. The regression analysis shows that opportunity costs increase with access to output markets and extension, output price, access to input supply, experience in growing improved varieties, and the relative importance of the crop. On the contrary, plot quality, input price, and oxen ownership are reducing the opportunity costs. The paper then concludes outlining the policy implications of the empirical findings to incentive design for on-farm conservation.     

Evidence of slowing yield growth – The example of Swiss cereal yields

We analyze trends in crop yields and yield variability of barley, maize, oats, rye, triticale and wheat in Switzerland from 1961 to 2006. It shows that there have been linear increases in crop yields since the 1960s. However, yields of barley, oats, rye, triticale and wheat have leveled off in Switzerland since the early 1990s, which contrasts linear trends in cereal yields that is usually assumed for Europe. We show a relationship between the introduction of agricultural policy measures towards environmentally friendly cereal production that fostered widespread adoption of extensive farming practices and the observed leveling-off of crop yields. Thus, this paper emphasizes that agricultural policy can be an important reason for slowing crop yield growth. Agricultural policy measures will be one of the key driving forces of future crop yields. Thus, the potential leveling-off of crop yields that is indicated in this study should be considered in analyses of future land use and food supply as well as in the evaluation of agri-environmental measures and policy reforms.     

Cash crop choice and income dynamics in rural areas: evidence for post‐crisis Indonesia

In this article we investigate the factors affecting levels and growth of incomes in rural Indonesia following the crisis of 1997–1998. In particular, we investigate the relative roles of nonfarm incomes and productivity improvements achieved via changes in crops versus improvements on the same crops on income dynamics. Framing the article in the context of an optimal labor allocation model, relying on unique household panel data from Central Sulawesi, and using advanced panel econometric methods, we find that local innovations related to the adoption and intensification of new cash crop varieties, more specifically the shift from coffee to cocoa production, can explain a substantial part of the observed post‐crisis developments. Causal estimates of the effect of growing cocoa suggest that households were on average able to achieve about 14% higher income levels during the post‐crisis period compared to the planting of other crops, most notably coffee. Also, our results demonstrate the importance of engagement in nonfarm activities for household income growth. Comparative analyses using a nationally representative survey suggest that similar processes are at play in other parts of Indonesia.     

Crop biotechnology and the African farmer

Recent reports, workshops and meetings on GM (Genetically Modified) crops tend to characterize GM food production as a solution to Africa’s food crisis. However, GM crops are currently grown commercially in only one country in Africa – South Africa. Biotechnology tools range from tissue culture to molecular breeding and genetic engineering. This paper focuses on GM crop improvement and analyzes the development of seven GM crops (six food staples and cotton) over the past 15 years in Africa. The case studies reveal a number of unexpected scientific, legal, economic and political barriers to the development of GM crops and long delays in developing and implementing national biosafety regulations and guidelines. We conclude that most GM crops are at least 10–15 years or longer from reaching smallholder farmers in Africa. During this time special attention should be given to strengthening conventional plant breeding programs in NARS (National Agricultural Research Systems), African universities and the CGIAR. Biotechnology approaches must be nested and integrated into plant breeding programs. Special attention should also be given to raising public awareness of biotechnology, mobilizing political support and commitment to strengthening African capacity in biotechnology, biosafety, food safety and IPR (Intellectual Property Rights) and mounting long-term training programs to train the next generation of African plant breeders and GM crop specialists.     

低碳中国中的新疆：地位、挑战与策略

自2009年气候大会作出减排承诺后,中国政府出台了一系列的政策法规,国内各省市也积极参与实施。新疆的经济总量在全国所占份额很少,但资源丰富,是能源输出省份,也是国家的能源基地,虽然目前新疆的碳排放总量不大,但其增长速度和万元GDP碳排放量却远高于全国的平均水平。由于在能源结构、经济水平、交通运输和装备技术等方面面临着挑战,因此,本文从政策和技术两方面提出了新疆发展低碳经济的策略。     

Zimbabwe’s Agricultural Recovery Programme in the 1990s: an evaluation using household survey data

During the 1990s, the Government of Zimbabwe implemented an Agricultural Recovery Programme to help smallholder farmers recover from repeated severe droughts. The programme aimed to provide drought-affected smallholders with crop packs (free seeds and fertiliser) and mechanised tillage services. This article evaluates the coverage, poverty-sensitivity and impact of the programme using a more in-depth analysis of household survey data than has been done to date. The programme’s tillage component was unsuccessful, repeatedly reaching less than 5% of its target group; the crop pack component, however, reached four-fifths or more of its target group. Most of the poorer households received crop packs, but richer households were slightly more likely to get them. Those who did receive crop packs planted larger areas under staple crops, regardless of their poverty status. These findings are generally robust for a range of poverty proxies. Unfortunately, there is no clear evidence on the impact, if any, of crop packs on grain yields. Crop packs—properly attuned to local agro-ecological conditions—may serve a useful role in post-drought recovery. Steps must be taken, however, to ensure that all the poor receive crop packs. Attempts by government to provide mechanised tillage to hundreds of thousands of smallholder households are not recommended.     

Explaining Inter-Provincial Inequality in Productivity Growth in Crop Production in Pakistan

Abstract

Data on crop production are assembled for four provinces—Punjab, Sindh, North-West Frontier Province and Balochistan—for the period from 1980/81 to 2005/06 to examine inter-provincial differences in productivity growth rates. Propositions are put forward and examined to explain the superior productivity performance of Punjabi crop producers over those in Sindh and North-West Frontier Province, and the unusual productivity trends in Balochistan. The major factors relate to economic infrastructure and human capital. The impact of agricultural research is difficult to discern, and further work is required to assess the lagged effects of research expenditures on TFP growth.

Explication des déséquilibres interprovinciaux dans l'augmentation de la productivité dans la production de cultures au Pakistan

RÉSUMÉ On a rassemblé des données pour les quatre provinces suivantes: Penjab, Sindh, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, et Baloutchistan, pour la période 1980/81 à 2005/06, afin d'examiner les différences interprovinciales dans les taux d'expansion de la productivité. On présente et on examine des hypothèses pour expliquer le rendement supérieur des producteurs du Penjab par rapport à ceux du Sindh et du Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, ainsi que les tendances de productivité inhabituelles du Baloutchistan. Les principaux facteurs se rapportent à l'infrastructure économique et au capital humain. L'impact de la recherche sur l'agriculture est difficile à établir, et des travaux supplémentaires seront nécessaires pour évaluer les effets décalés des frais de recherche sur l'expansion du TFP.

Explicación de la desigualdad inter-provincial en el crecimiento de la productividad de la producción de cultivos en Pakistán

EXTRACTO Se recopilan datos sobre la producción de cultivos de cuatro provincias: Punjab, Sindh, Provincia de la Frontera Norte-Oeste y Balochistan, durante el período de 1980/81 a 2005/06, para examinar las diferencias inter-provinciales en los índices de crecimiento de la productividad. Se plantean y examinan propuestas para explicar el mayor rendimiento de la productividad de los productores de cultivos Punjabi con respecto a los de Sindh y la Provincia de la Frontera Norte-Oeste, y las inusuales tendencias de la productividad de Balochistan. Los factores principales se relacionan con la infraestructura económica y el capital humano. El impacto de la investigación agrícola es difícil de discernir, y se requiere más trabajo para evaluar los efectos retrasados de los gastos de investigación en el crecimiento TFP.      

Modeling producer responses with dynamic programming: a case for adaptive crop management

Past research found agricultural producers’ conditional responses during the growing season are important adaptations to weather and other stochastic events. Failing to recognize these responses overstates the risks confronting producers and understates their ability to respond to adverse circumstances. Dynamic programming (DP) provides a means for determining optimal long‐term crop management plans. However, most applications in the literature base their analysis on annual time steps with fixed strategies within the year, effectively ignoring conditional responses during the year. We suggest an alternative approach that captures the strategic responses within a cropping season to random weather variables as they unfold, reflecting farmers’ ability to adapt to weather realizations. We illustrate our approach by applying it to a typical cereal farm in Karak, Jordan. The results show that including conditional within‐year responses to weather reduces the frequency of fallowing by 23% and increases expected income by 9%.     

Does the application of ICTs facilitate rural economic transformation in China? Empirical evidence from the use of smartphones among farmers

This paper investigates the role of information communication technologies (ICTs) in the transformation of rural economies by evaluating the use of smartphones among farmers in China. We use unique three-wave panel data to document the transformation path of rural economies in recent years. An endogenous switching probit model and a counterfactual analysis are applied to estimate the effects of smartphone use. The results show that from 2008 to 2015, rural economies in China could be characterized by the following three aspects: a) increased off-farm employment, b) expanded grain cultivation, and c) decreased crop diversification. The estimation results indicate that the use of smartphones among farmers had significant impacts on the transformation of rural economies by facilitating the off-farm employment of the farmers' family members, the cultivation of nongrain crops and crop specialization. These findings complement the empirical evidence on the role of ICTs, particularly smartphones, in the development of rural economies in China and other developing countries.