The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism

We perform an empirical investigation of the macroeconomic consequences of international terrorism and interactions with alternative forms of collective violence. Our analysis is based on a rich unbalanced panel data set with annual observations on 177 countries from 1968 to 2000, which brings together information from the Penn World Table data set, the ITERATE data set for terrorist events, and data sets of external and internal conflict. We explore these data with cross-sectional and panel growth regression analysis and a structural VAR model. We find that, on average, the incidence of terrorism may have an economically significant negative effect on growth, albeit one that is considerably smaller and less persistent than that associated with either external wars or internal conflict. As well, terrorism is associated with a redirection of economic activity away from investment spending and towards government spending. However, our investigation also suggests important differences both regarding the incidence and the economic consequences of terrorism among different sets of countries. In OECD economies, in particular, terrorist incidents are considerably more frequent than in other nations, but the negative influence of these incidents on growth is smaller.     

Minimum consumption and transitional dynamics in wealth distribution

This paper investigates quantitatively how initial wealth holding differences across households are propagated through time in a one sector growth model economy. A key feature of the model is that household consumption cannot fall below a positive level each period. The existence of a minimum consumption requirement implies that the Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution not only differs across households but also changes differently over time. This model is calibrated to match some key aggregate statistics of the U.S. economy. We find that, as in the data, the wealth distribution in our benchmark model economy exhibits a (brief) period of increasing inequality, a short period in which inequality diminishes and a steady level of inequality along the balanced growth path. However, our model illustrates that the evolution of inequality is very sensitive to the length of the transition path. Additionally, our model predicts an upsurge in wealth inequality following the productivity slowdown in the 1970s.     

Corruption, inequality, and fairness

Bigger governments raise the possibilities for corruption; more corruption may in turn raise the support for redistributive policies that intend to correct the inequality and injustice generated by corruption. We formalize these insights in a simple dynamic model. A positive feedback from past to current levels of taxation and corruption arises either when wealth originating in corruption and rent seeking is considered unfair, or when the ability to engage in corruption is unevenly distributed in the population. This feedback introduces persistence in the size of the government and the levels of corruption and inequality. Multiple steady states exist in some cases.     

Big elephants in small ponds: Do large traders make financial markets more aggressive?

Market participants often suspect that large traders have a disproportionate effect on financial markets, increasing the aggressiveness of market responses. Prior studies have shown that the impact of a large trader on a currency crisis depends positively on his “size” and informational position. By contrast, this article highlights the role that market sentiment has on the impact of a large trader. If the market believes that fundamentals are weak, then the probability of a crisis depends positively on the trader's size but negatively on the precision of his information, with these effects reversed in a generally optimistic market. A large player, therefore, need not make market responses more aggressive.     

Private Pension Arrangements and Retirement in Britain*

This paper looks at the policy debate surrounding private pensions and retirement patterns in the UK. Recent increases in longevity have led not only to increased pressures in public pensions but also to corresponding increases in the importance of private pensions in the UK and changes in the way in which they are structured. We consider the economic implications of these changes, and in particular the increased importance of defined contribution plans. In addition, we discuss the prospects for future trends in retirement ages.     

MNE competence‐creating subsidiary mandates

The determinants of R&D intensity differ between subsidiaries in a multinational enterprise (MNE). Previous literature suggests that whether a subsidiary achieves a competence‐creating output mandate depends on the qualities of its location. R&D strategies in competence‐creating subsidiaries are supply‐driven while those in purely competence‐exploiting subsidiaries are demand‐driven. Using data on U.K. subsidiaries of non‐U.K. MNEs, we find that the level of subsidiary R&D depends on MNE group‐level and subsidiary‐level characteristics as well as locational factors. The R&D of mandated subsidiaries rises with acquisition, but for non‐mandated subsidiaries R&D falls upon acquisition. MNEs that grow through acquisition have more inter‐subsidiary R&D diversity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On Quality and Variety Bias in Aggregate Prices

How do product variety and quality affect the aggregate price bias? We develop a general equilibrium model that accounts for the joint interaction of product quality and variety. Our findings show that the aggregate price bias is procyclical and the contribution of product variety is persistent whereas the contribution of product quality becomes countercyclical in the medium to long run. We show that accounting for product quality and variety has critical implications on the measure of cyclical fluctuations. Measurements of cyclical fluctuations derived using the consumption deflator, which abstracts from changes in product quality and variety, underestimate the variables' true volatility.     

Raise Rates to Raise Inflation? Neo‐Fisherianism in the New Keynesian Model

Increasing the inflation target in a New Keynesian (NK) model may require increasing, rather than decreasing, the nominal interest rate in the short run. We refer to this positive short‐run comovement between the nominal rates and inflation conditional on a nominal shock as Neo‐Fisherianism. We show that the NK model is more likely to be Neo‐Fisherian the more persistent is the change in the inflation target and the more flexible are prices. Neo‐Fisherianism is driven by the forward‐looking nature of the model. Modifications that make the framework less forward‐looking make it less likely for the model to exhibit Neo‐Fisherianism.     

Cross‐Firm Real Earnings Management

Our analysis is rooted in the notion that stockholders can learn about the fundamental value of any firm from observing the earnings reports of its rivals. We argue that such intraindustry information transfers, which have been broadly documented in the empirical literature, may motivate managers to alter stockholders’ beliefs about the value of their firm not only by manipulating their own earnings report but also by influencing the earnings reports of rival firms. Managers obviously do not have access to the accounting system of peer firms, but they can nevertheless influence the earnings reports of rival firms by distorting real transactions that relate to the product market competition. We demonstrate such managerial behavior, which we refer to as cross‐firm real earnings management, and explore its potential consequences and interrelation with the practice of accounting‐based earnings management within an industry setting with imperfect (nonproprietary) accounting information.     

Measurement of Quality of Life and Well‐Being in France: The Drivers of Subjective Well‐Being

Ever since the publication of the Stiglitz Report, France has been heavily involved in the measurement of well‐being. The French Statistical Institute (INSEE) has expanded the scope of its existing surveys. It has also launched an innovative experimental survey which, drawing upon a single statistical source, aims for the first time to explore the different dimensions of both objective and subjective quality of life, as highlighted in the Stiglitz Report. It allows us to study, at the individual level, correlations between these dimensions and the accumulation of deprivations. It has enabled us to better understand the links between determinants generally referred to as objective dimensions of quality of life (such as health or education) and subjective well‐being. This information is of paramount importance for policy makers who cannot act directly on the level of people's satisfaction but can only act upon the levers of objective dimensions. This paper presents the main findings of the experimental survey.