省级公共财政科普专项支出绩效评价体系构建——以江苏为例

公众科普财政专项投入力度、范围、形式和载体越来越多样化,公众科普财政专项投入绩效如何评价越来越引起关注。构建了公众科学普及财政经费投入项目绩效评价体系系统,重点阐释了公众科学普及财政经费投入项目绩效评价体系的关键议题,以省级科学普及财政经费投入项目为例,借助绩效逻辑路径分析法构建了省级科学普及财政专项经费投入绩效评价指标体系。     

Intraday return and volatility spillover mechanism from Chinese to Japanese stock market

We analyze the mechanism of return and volatility spillover effects from the Chinese to the Japanese stock market. We construct a stock price index comprised of those companies that have substantial operations in China. This China-related index responds to changes in the Shanghai Composite Index more strongly than does the TOPIX (the market index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange). This result suggests that China has a large impact on Japanese stocks via China-related firms in Japan. Furthermore, we find evidence that this response has become stronger as the Chinese economy has gained importance in recent years.     

分宜县土地细碎化的中观尺度研究

研究目的:借鉴土地格局领域的研究思路,在中观尺度上研究土地细碎化,以期在研究方法、数据获取等方面寻求突破,并利用2004年分宜县遥感影像解译的土地利用矢量对10个乡镇土地利用细碎化进行研究。研究方法:文献资料法,景观格局指数法,聚类分析法。研究结果:在中观尺度上研究土地细碎化问题,得到与微观尺度研究截然不同的结论——低山区土地细碎化程度最低,其次是平原区,而丘陵区的土地破碎化程度最高。研究结论:分宜县各乡镇土地利用细碎度指标的聚类结果空间分布规律特征十分显著。     

中国式分权下的电力需求与经济增长

在中国式分权的背景下,出于缓解自身财政压力和政治晋升等动因,地方政府的投资行为会直接或间接地影响区域电力需求。采用系统广义矩估计方法对1999—2010年30个省区的动态面板系统进行估计分析,结果与理论预期相吻合：财政分权、电力需求、市场化都能促进经济增长,各省区的经济增长、第二产业比重、市场化程度、城市化水平显著地影响了电力需求,财政分权、人口、电力耗能指数与电力需求正相关,价格与电力需求负相关;而在不同省区,同一影响因素对电力需求的作用力度不同。     

Has the productivity of retail food stores really declined?

Despite the fact that other factors of production have been substituted for labor, and that scanner technology has come into widespread use, the BLS index of labor productivity for retail food stores has been declining for sometime. The purpose of this paper is to study this puzzling decline in measured productivity. The results indicate that the decline in the BLS index is due to changes in services offered by retail food stores that are not incorporated into the index, and that productivity increased if these services are accounted for.     

高新技术企业综合评估系统研究

对高新技术企业的评估是一项非常重要的工作,因为它直接关系到对高新技术企业投资的成功与否。根据我国实际情况,结合国内外已有的研究成果,运用AHP法建立高新技术企业评估指标体系,并且利用模糊数学建立高新技术企业综合评估模型,旨在较好地解决对高新技术企业评估的问题。     

Comparison of Mean-Risk Efficient Portfolios in Asia-Pacific Capital Markets

In order to analyze the performance of mean-risk efficient portfolios, several methods of portfolio comparison have been developed. In this paper we analyze the second-order stochastic dominance efficiency of portfolios on the mean-risk efficient frontier assuming that the risk is represented by standard deviations and concordance matrices set up on the basis of Pearson's linear correlation, Spearman's rho, or Kendall's tau. Empirical analysis of the market returns of selected Asia-Pacific stock markets is carried out considering both the U.S. dollar and euro as reference currencies, and different periods: before and during the subprime crisis. Measures and portfolios on the mean-risk efficiency frontier that should be of interest to at least one risk-averse investor are empirically documented.     

The relative pricing of European dividend futures and their predictive abilities for index returns

We use dividend futures prices to derive a dividend future discount model. Arbitrage arguments postulate that the sum of discounted dividend futures prices should equal the index price, i.e. the sum of discounted dividends. We analyze whether this relation holds and find that the two valuation approaches lead to a different valuation of expected dividends. These observations indicate that dividend futures and index prices seem to provide the investor with different information on future dividends. We further show that the difference in valuation can be used to forecast index returns and show how an investment strategy can exploit this predictability.     

The Relationship Between Energy Commodity Prices and Electricity and Market Index Performances: Evidence from an Emerging Market

We investigate the effect of energy commodity price movements on market and electricity index returns in Turkey for the periods before, during, and after the year 2008. Although the Turkish economy is highly reliant on oil, we find that oil price does not lead either electricity or market indexes. This might be attributable to sluggish integration of financial markets in Turkey compared to developed markets. Natural gas price leads electricity index in the pre-2008 period. Its significance is reduced following the decline in natural gas usage in electricity production. This suggests that commodity dependence may be driving the link between commodity and asset prices in related sectors.     

铁路客运量季节指数计算方法研究

为在铁路客运量预测中消除季节性变化的影响,采用平均数季节指数法、移动平均趋势剔除法、最小平方趋势剔除法对2002年—2004年的铁路客运量计算季节指数,通过误差分析,说明最小平方趋势剔除法能更好地反映运量的季节变动状况,是预测的最佳选择方案。