Segmental new-product diffusion of residential broadband services

Aggregate models of innovation diffusion do not capitalise on valuable consumer adoption dynamics that may be useful to policy makers and market planners. The non-diffusion choice literature shows quite clearly that these dynamics may indeed be very important factors in the diffusion process. The authors present a segmental broadband diffusion model that is estimated from consumer survey data that measure the effect that household income has on its propensity to adopt this technological product. The results suggest that early broadband adopters are mostly made up from wealthy households and only as time progresses do less well off households adopt. The findings presented in this paper will be important to market planners and policy makers requiring a relatively simple technique that forecasts segmental innovation diffusion.     

我国高新区扩散功能不足的表征、原因及对策研究

通过高新区的率先发展带动周边地区的发展,是我国区域经济发展的重要战略之一。但目前我国大部分高新区的扩散效应不明显、辐射带动能力较弱,主要表现为"孤岛经济"、"体制回归"和"边界阴影"等现象大量存在。分析认为,其根本原因是高新区经济位势不高、扩散渠道不畅和高新区周边地区承接能力不强。针对我国大部分高新区扩散功能不足的表征和原因,提出了5点对策建议。     

城市毗邻效应与出口比较优势

培育出口新优势与拓展区域发展空间是“十三五”规划中培育经济发展新动力的重要举措,城市群建设为出口新优势的培育提供了可能。本文采用2000-2006年中国海关与城市统计年鉴数据考察了城市空间邻近对城市出口比较优势的动态影响。研究表明,城市间交互作用对毗邻城市新产品与现有产品出口优势的培育具有显著促进作用,在以长珠江三角洲城市群为主的东南地区最为显著;且更大程度促进了毗邻城市非优势出口产品与中低技能技术密集型产品的出口优势培育;空间毗邻是城市间发挥交互作用的必要条件。政府应加快城市群建设步伐,促进邻近城市间知识外溢等交互作用的便利化,推动中国出口新优势培育。     

Exploring the determinants of the OSS market potential: The case of the Apache web server

A theoretical framework is proposed for the better understanding of the OSS global diffusion. Following a case study approach, the Apache web server's market potential is estimated, forecasted and examined in terms of the socio-economic factors determining its diffusion, across different economic environments in developed versus developing countries. Market saturation is explored under the prism of three theoretical perspectives: the institutional, the endogenous and the exogenous growth theories. Findings suggest that Apache market saturation levels depend on both endogenous and exogenous to a country factors and that institutional quality plays an important role to the market potential. Implications for theory and public policy are discussed.     

Forecasting economic time series using targeted predictors

This paper studies two refinements to the method of factor forecasting. First, we consider the method of quadratic principal components that allows the link function between the predictors and the factors to be non-linear. Second, the factors used in the forecasting equation are estimated in a way to take into account that the goal is to forecast a specific series. This is accomplished by applying the method of principal components to ‘targeted predictors’ selected using hard and soft thresholding rules. Our three main findings can be summarized as follows. First, we find improvements at all forecast horizons over the current diffusion index forecasts by estimating the factors using fewer but informative predictors. Allowing for non-linearity often leads to additional gains. Second, forecasting the volatile one month ahead inflation warrants a high degree of targeting to screen out the noisy predictors. A handful of variables, notably relating to housing starts and interest rates, are found to have systematic predictive power for inflation at all horizons. Third, the targeted predictors selected by both soft and hard thresholding changes with the forecast horizon and the sample period. Holding the set of predictors fixed as is the current practice of factor forecasting is unnecessarily restrictive.     

Management fads and information delays: An exploratory simulation study

Management fads seem omnipresent. Adoption research that focuses on the uptake of change says little about subsequent abandonment behaviors. In this paper a simulation model is developed that extends adoption and diffusion models to consider abandonment from a dynamic perspective. Analysis of the simulation results leads to the conclusion that incomplete information and bandwagon effects can lead to fad-like behaviors.     

Simulating the adoption of fuel cell vehicles

Supply security and environmental concerns associated with oil call for an introduction of hydrogen as a transport fuel. To date, scenario studies of infrastructure build-up and sales of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are driven by cost estimates and technological feasibility assumptions, indicating that there is a “chicken and egg problem”: Car producers do not offer FCVs as long as there are no hydrogen filling stations, and infrastructure will not be set up unless there is a significant number of FCVs on the road. This diffusion barrier is often used as an argument for a major (public) infrastructure program, neglecting the fact that the automobile market is highly competitive and car producers, consumers, and filling station operators form an interdependent dynamic system, where taxes influence technology choice. In this paper, an agent-based model is used that captures the main interdependencies to simulate possible diffusion paths of FCVs. The results suggest that a tax on conventional cars can successfully promote diffusion even without a major infrastructure program. However, consumers and individual producers are affected differently by the tax, indicating that differently strong resistance towards such a policy can be anticipated. Moreover, there is evidence that some producers might benefit from cooperation with filling station operators to generate a faster build-up of infrastructure.

XBRL技术下的企业财务报告——研究综述及启示

XBRL是一种基于XML语言,通过对信息的标准化过程来节约交易成本的新型信息技术。本文将从XBRL财务报告的界定和组成开始,讨论了XBRL数据的特点和XML技术规范、XBRL技术规范、XBRL分类标准以及XBRL实例文档之间的关系。然后分别从实例文档的认定、信息标准的发展和扩散以及XBRL对资本市场的影响三个方面对以往文献进行了较全面的梳理。     

Designing a forecasting analysis to understand the diffusion of open source software in the year 2010

Open source software (OSS) is being considered the new paradigm of software distribution. As contrasted with the traditional software marketing model, OSS pursues the freedom to have access to open source and offers several advantages to enterprises. These advantages include saving costs related to Information Systems and Technologies (IS/IT) and the possibility of adapting to changing organizational requirements. However, the recent forthcoming of OSS prevents us from knowing the real impact it has today on social and organizational fields. Having considered this obstacle, the authors have defined a foreseeable setting for OSS diffusion and adoption by means of a forecasting study based on the Delphi method for the year 2010. The findings reveal the levels of OSS diffusion for this year according to the main applications, geographic regions and industries. In a complementary manner, the authors have studied the elements of success as well as the most relevant obstacles for diffusing and adopting technological solutions based on OSS.     

基于社会网络的服务创新关系与知识扩散模型

服务创新系统状态取决于社会网络中知识主体之间的有效连接,服务创新关系优化表现为社会网络知识链结点之间,知识服务关系和创新过程的协同。通过分析基于社会网络拓扑结构的服务创新关系结构特征,从不同维度的结构关系研究其对创新性知识扩散过程产生影响,解析知识扩散过程和创新价值实现的效率。通过构建基于社会网络的SIR知识扩散模型,进一步对基于服务创新关系的知识扩散过程进行数量界定,提出了优化知识扩散效果、促进区域科技成果转化的对策。