Investigation of factors affecting the diffusion of mobile telephone services: An empirical analysis for Vietnam

This paper analyzes the diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in Vietnam and examines how telecommunications regulation and potential substitute/complement services affect the growth of the number of mobile telephone subscribers. Using a logistic diffusion model, it is found that fixed telephone services are a complement while data services have a negative relation to mobile telephone services in Vietnam. As for regulation, the policy of introducing competition has been found to be the most effective in influencing the adoption of mobile services. Another important result is that the estimated potential market is roughly 76% of the total population. The findings suggest that suitable regulation that guarantees competition in the mobile telecommunications market in a developing country such as Vietnam is one of the most important factors for a positive diffusion process.     

Groupware adoption in a distributed organization: transporting and transforming technology through social worlds

In this paper, we draw on theory from social worlds to analyze how different organizational contexts affect groupware adoption. We report on a study of the adoption of data conferencing in a large distributed organization. Our data show that the diffusion process, which was driven by the users, was a result of communication and transformation of the technology across different social worlds. We also discovered that membership in multiple social worlds in an organization creates a tension for the potential adopter who is in a distributed team. To function effectively, team members must uniformly adopt the technology, yet some may face resistance from other social worlds to which they belong. Our study showed that adoption was affected by organizational sites having conflicting views of the value of collaboration, different amounts and needs for resources, and different acceptance of technology standards. Potential technology adopters on distributed teams are faced with conflicting loyalties, constraints, and requirements between their distributed collaborations and organizational homes.     

Technological forecasting at the Korean stock market: A dynamic competition analysis using Lotka–Volterra model

The purpose of this paper is to attempt to analyze the dynamic relationship between the Korean Stock Exchange (KSE) and Korean Securities Dealers Automated Quotation (KOSDAQ), two competing markets at the Korean stock market, in the viewpoint of technological forecasting of competition. The Lotka–Volterra system of equations, one well-known competitive diffusion models, is adopted to represent the competitive situations of the Korean stock market and it is estimated using daily empirical index data of KSE and KOSDAQ during 1997–2001. The results show that there existed a predator–prey relationships between two markets in which KSE acted as a prey for the time being after the emergence of KOSDAQ. This interaction was altered to symbiotic relationship and finally to pure competition relationship. We also perform an equilibrium analysis of the estimated Lotka–Volterra equations. As a result, we find that there is an equilibrium point in a dynamic sense. However, the equilibrium point could be unstable in the latest pure competition relationship.     

开放条件下知识产权保护和社会福利效应

开放条件下知识产权保护和社会福利效应的规范研究显示,发达国家从创新主体利益角度,要求发展中国家加强知识产权保护,但这并不能保证发达国家及世界福利水平的提高;技术创新和技术扩散是知识产权保护影响福利水平的两个最重要传导机制,其对南方国家知识产权保护的反应也存在不确定性。一些实证研究显示,知识产权保护对经济增长、国际贸易、FDI和技术转让均有影响。从减少贫困和失业以及产业结构变迁等发展经济学视角展开研究,是对现有文献的一个重要拓展方向。     

Determinants of the Use of Advanced Technologies

There is an extensive literature about the influences on the adoption of new technologies. However, while we often assert the role of qualifications and skills in the innovation and diffusion processes, there has been little formal econometric work in this area. One of the key reasons for this is the lack of information about human capital in firm accounts, at all levels of the organisation, including the top executive and board of directors. This paper draws on a large, firm level data set to explore the linkages between the adoption and use of 13 advanced technologies and the qualification and skill structure of the enterprise. In addition, it provides a number of further insights about the effects of ownership, firm size and industry structure.     

Modelling multinational telecommunications demand with limited data

Forecasting the diffusion of innovations in the telecommunications sector is a constantly recurring problem for national providers. The problem is characterised by short data series making the estimation of model parameters unreliable. However, the same innovation will be diffusing simultaneously in other national markets, although with a different start date. The use of this cross-sectional data in constructing innovation diffusion models is investigated here. Four models for pooling the cross-sectional data are described and two diffusion models are discussed although only one, the Gompertz model is used throughout. Three innovation data sets are used in the evaluation of the models: digital cellular telephones, ISDN connections and fax connections. The pooled diffusion forecasts proved to be more accurate in several comparisons relative to a naïve benchmark and to individual forecasts when available.     

对外贸易与技术扩散：一个文献综述

新增长理论表明,技术进步已成为影响一国经济增长的关键因素。而一国的技术进步不仅取决于本国的技术创新能力,对国外技术的模仿、吸收并再创新,也是一个重要渠道。随着各国对外贸易不断发展,越来越多的研究发现,国际贸易已经成为国际技术扩散的重要途径。文章主要综述基于国际贸易的技术进步效应及其影响因素,揭示该领域的研究状况,并做简要评介。     

The diffusion of mobile payments: Profiling the adopters and non-adopters,Roger's way

This study aims to establish various market segments based on consumers' attitudinal elements influencing the adoption of mobile payments (m-payments). It also examines the best discriminators between identified clusters of m-payment users. Three hundred and sixty m-payment users participated in the study. Cluster and discriminant analyses were employed for the analysis. The findings suggest that two segments are established, and strategies can be developed accordingly. The study provides marketers with numerous touchpoints to propagate the adoption of m-payment apps. It also comprehensively explains m-payment users in developing economies by superimposing the cohorts to Roger's diffusion of innovation model.     

基于指数随机图模型的专利技术扩散机制实证研究

网络嵌入视角下专利技术扩散路径间存在相关性，但这种网络内生性影响并未在已有研究中得到足够重视。将扩散因素归纳为：专利价值、专利保护、多维同配、结构嵌入，从扩散网络内生、外生因素两个方面构建分析模型，并以石墨烯领域为例，采用指数随机图模型，开展实证研究。实证结果说明：专利价值、技术、地理、组织层面同配性、闭合三角结构嵌入均正向促进专利技术扩散，而专利保护强度反向抑制技术扩散。值得注意的是，专利技术扩散存在强烈的结构嵌入倾向，融合网络内、外生因素的模型能够更好地捕捉专利技术扩散机制。