On Forward Induction and Evolutionary and Strategic Stability

We analyze which normal form solution concepts capture the notion of forward induction, as defined by E. van Damme (1989, J. Econ. Theory48, 476-496) in the class of generic two player normal form games preceded by an outside option. We find that none of the known strategic stability concepts (including Mertens stable sets and hyperstable sets) capture this form of forward induction. On the other hand, we show that the evolutionary concept of EES set (J. Swinkels, 1992, J. Econ. Theory57, 306-332) is always consistent with forward induction. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: C72.     

Social aspirations in European banks: peer-influenced risk behaviour

We test a sample of 3,586 banks from 33 European countries to determine whether performances above or below a social aspiration level (median performance of peer banks) influence banks’ aggregate risk levels. Our results are consistent with the behavioural theory of the firm and prospect theory in that we find that bank performance below a bank’s social aspiration level is followed by increased aggregate risk, i.e. risk-taking behaviour in the subsequent year. Although under-performing banks tend to be risk-takers, large banks and banks with high aggregate risk levels tend to limit the increase in their aggregate risk levels.     

复杂适应系统理论在股市模拟中的应用

资本市场是由金融产品提供者(如上市公司)、交易所和投资者组成的系统。随着经济的不断发展,股票市场已成为我国资本市场中最活跃、发展最快速的市场,因此它也成为众多专家学者研究的焦点。传统的金融学理论对于股票市场中许多普遍存在的特征性事实,如尖峰胖尾、波动聚集等现象难以解释。与此同时,传统的线性数学分析方法也陷入了前所未有困境。在环境的要求下,复杂适应系统理论在金融学中的应用所具备的优势逐渐显露出来。     

基于耦合理论的旅游业与新农村建设协调发展研究

建设中国特色社会主义新农村是我国现代化进程中的重大历史任务,也是国家十一五规划中解决三农问题的战略方向。旅游业符合新农村建设中的资源节约、环境友好型和谐社会的国策取向。我国是一个农业大国,建设新农村任务艰巨。为了发挥旅游业在加快新农村建设方面的主要作用,文章提出基于耦合理论的旅游业和新农村建设协调发展研究,构建旅游业和新农村建设的耦合模型,并进行评价,最后得出结论。     

Determinants of Monitoring Capabilities in International Franchising: Foodservice Firms within East Asia

This paper undertakes an exploratory study on determining capabilities of international franchising within East Asia. There is a need to develop a deeper understanding in franchising within East Asia as much of the franchising literature is based on the U.S. experience. Findings from this paper indicate that international franchisors use a combination of mechanisms to prevent franchisee opportunism in East Asia. They include ex-ante bonds, performance schedules and formal controls in brand management. However, the effectiveness of these mechanisms depend on the capabilities of the franchisor to negotiate a high initial franchise fee, select the right franchisee and make adaptation but still maintain brand integrity.     

旅游项目投资资本介入研究——基于委托代理理论的视角

旅游项且投资的资本介入问题存在两层委托代理关系。其一是人民委托地方政府。其二为地方政府委托外部资本进行项目投资建设和经营,在此过程中,委托代理理论的逆向选择和道德风险问题相继出现,导致地方政府短视行为及寻租行为、外部资本对生态自然环境的破坏、对企业财务及投资信息的操控以及借旅游开发之名进行房地产开发等行为．基于委托代理理论,建议：优化地方政府旅游项目投资考核机制,建立科学的旅游资本介入评价指标体系,政府通过土地入股或保留一股黄金股保证对重大决策问题否决权．     

Quantal Response Equilibria for Extensive Form Games

This article investigates the use of standard econometric models for quantal choice to study equilibria of extensive form games. Players make choices based on a quantal-choice model and assume other players do so as well. We define an agent quantal response equilibrium (AQRE), which applies QRE to the agent normal form of an extensive form game and imposes a statistical version of sequential rationality. We also define a parametric specification, called logit-AQRE, in which quantal-choice probabilities are given by logit response functions. AQRE makes predictions that contradict the invariance principle in systematic ways. We show that these predictions match up with some experimental findings by Schotter et al. (1994) about the play of games that differ only with respect to inessential transformations of the extensive form. The logit-AQRE also implies a unique selection from the set of sequential equilibria in generic extensive form games. We examine data from signaling game experiments by Banks et al. (1994) and Brandts and Holt (1993). We find that the logit-AQRE selection applied to these games succeeds in predicting patterns of behavior observed in these experiments, even when our prediction conflicts with more standard equilibrium refinements, such as the intuitive criterion. We also reexamine data from the McKelvey and Palfrey (1992) centipede experiment and find that the AQRE model can account for behavior that had previously been explained in terms of altruistic behavior. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Reciprocity in Ranked Relationships: Does Social Structure Influence Social Reasoning?

Many economic and evolutionary theories have modeled cooperation as the evolutionary outcome of decisions made by autonomous, self-interested agents operating in a social vacuum. In this paper we consider the implications for cooperative interactions when prior social structures and corresponding social norms exist. In particular we investigate the influence of social rank/status on perceptions of fairness and tolerance of cheating. We review evidence from a series of experiments employing the Wason selection task (a test of conditional reasoning) and the ledger task (a decision making task) suggesting that people cued to adopt a perspective of high social rank are more tolerant of cheating and simultaneously believe that they have been more fairly treated (even when cheated) than people cued to adopt a perspective of low social rank. However, the evidence also suggests interesting cross-cultural differences in perceptions of fairness and tolerance of cheating in ranked relationships. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

50年来我国经济地理学的发展

建国50年来,我国经济地理学的发展本着为国民经济建设服务的原则,开展了大规模的调查研究、规划和理论总结,为政府的决策提供了大量的科学咨询,同时,也培养了一大批经济地理学人才.通过大量的科学研究和教学实践我国经济地理学的学科体系、理论和方法研究获得了全面发展.