Public support effect on natural disaster management: A case study of ice storms in forests in Slovenia

In the last decade Slovenia has experienced more frequent natural disasters in forests. The most severe and widespread one that affected Slovenian forests, which cover more than a half of Slovenian territory, was a large-scale ice storm in early February 2014. This study aims to investigate the effect of the public support on the recovery of forest farms affected by the 2014 ice storm. Analyses focus particularly on the ability of Slovenian forest farms’ income recovery in a short-time period. The economic resilience of forest farms in the absence of forest disaster payments due to the absence of legal certainty for disaster aid in 2014 and 2015 provides an interesting framework for identifying the income effect of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments. The Farm Accountancy Data Network has been used with applied statistical and regression methods to estimate the public support effect on selected woodland area size samples. Results suggest a positive effect of CAP payments on farm income recovery. The magnitude of the effect is high and significant for the less favoured area and disaster payments that were given for farm production loss in the 2013 drought. Although the magnitude of the effect is weak, investment payments show a significant positive effect on farm income recovery for all studied forest farm samples.     

融通创新模式及其支撑体系构建——荷兰人工智能创新中心对我国人工智能领域发展的启示

针对人工智能、量子信息等兼具渗透性、扩散性、颠覆性等特征的新动能将引领新时代科技进步和产业发展，甚至有可能重塑全球产业体系和经济发展方式，我国提出建立融通创新模式，以支撑经济高质量发展。在上述背景下，首先，尝试从科学研究与应用实践角度分析融通创新的概念和内涵，进一步构建对应的支撑体系，即形成以政府主办的科技中介服务机构为关键节点，连通企业、高校、研究院所、政府等各类创新主体的共同体网络。其次，结合2019年对荷兰人工智能创新服务中心（ICAI）的实地调研，进一步验证构建上述支撑体系对于实现融通创新的可行性和操作性。最后，就我国人工智能领域构建融通创新发展模式加以探讨，并提出4条实施策略。     

The impact of oil price changes on selected macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan

We examine the relationship between oil price fluctuations and economic activity in Azerbaijan using vector autoregressive models for the period 2002Q1–2018Q4. Our key results are as follows. First, growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) decreases after oil price innovations in the oil and gas sector and in the remainder of the economy. Downturns (upswings) in the oil and gas sector also prompt downturns (upswings) in the non-oil sector as fluctuations in oil revenues affect the government's capacity to subsidize the rest of the economy. Second, oil price innovations also lead to higher inflation in Azerbaijan. In response to the required tightening of monetary policy, the manat appreciates against the US dollar. Finally, GDP effects are primarily seen after oil price increases, whereas the interest rate and the exchange rate mainly react to decreases. Inflation increases after both types of shocks, due to either the accommodative monetary policy stance in the case of oil price decreases or the shock itself in the case of increases.     

Organic farms' seasonal farm labour-sourcing strategies in the pre-‘Arizona’ mode of immigration control

This study analysed the strategies of the more labour-intensive organic farms in sourcing seasonal farmworkers for their operations. The study period (2002) captures the farm labour market conditions prior to enforcement of stricter ‘Arizona’ style of immigration controls. Farmers at that time usually would tend to exhaust the full potentials of family labour contributions before relying on off-farm labour sources. When off-farm workers were considered, the results establish the farms' dependence on foreign labourers for seasonal farm work, although farmers seemed to have already been more cautiously hiring these workers in areas with lower concentrations of undocumented workers. This study also confirmed that farmers generally used high wage offers (possibly directed to domestic workers with more employment options) to lure them into working in their farms. The results also emphasize the need for improvements in the H2A guest farmworker visa programme that did not offer significant remedy for seasonal farm labour hiring at that time.     

生态公益型国有林场事业化改革效果的经济分析——基于陕西省汉中市国有林场职工工资危困视角

以公共政策评估理论为基础,从解决职工工资危困的视角,利用协整检验、相关分析和回归分析模型,依据陕西省汉中市21个生态公益型国有林场样本数据,对生态公益型国有林场事业化改革的长期和短期经济效果进行了评估。结果表明:短期内事业化改革可暂时解决林场职工工资危困,但地方政府、林场职工、国有林场三个利益层长期都会受到不同程度的损失。同时,论证了目前公益性林场事业化改革自身可能缺乏持续的动力机制;基于公共物品供给理论而提出政府利用市场间接提供生态产品的企业化运营改革模式。     

实施可持续耕地占补平衡的构想

通过剖析耕地占补平衡的内涵与外延,并针对我国目前耕地占补平衡实施过程中,落实不到位及占补平衡指标过于粗糙所造成的实施效果不佳等问题,提出了新的思维方法,建议从更高的时空尺度和监测水平上实现耕地占补平衡,实现以人为本、人地协调的可持续发展。     

Child dietary quality in rural Nepal: Effectiveness of a community-level development intervention

Nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions have the potential to improve child dietary quality in rural households, as evidenced by a growing body of work which concurrently measures agricultural and nutrition indicators. Our objective was to investigate whether children in rural farming communities of Nepal participating in a community-level, nutrition-sensitive development intervention had improved dietary quality compared with children living in non-participating matched rural communities. Six rural communities of Nepal where livelihoods were predominantly agricultural were selected to participate in the phased implementation of a community-level development intervention by Heifer International. Households and children in each community were surveyed at baseline, and follow-up surveys were implemented every six months for twenty-four months. Detailed data on food consumption for children older than 6 months of age were collected using a 24 h recall for 17 foods and food groups; parents responded for children. A difference-in-differences model with household fixed-effects and an analysis of covariance model were used to analyze the resulting panel data. Results indicated that the impacts of the intervention varied by agro-ecological region and by season. In the Hills region, which is poorer on average and more conducive to livestock production, children who had received the intervention for two years were 2.2 times as likely to have consumed food from an additional food group, 1.27 times as likely to have achieved minimum dietary diversity and 1.38 times as likely to have consumed animal source foods as children who received the intervention for only one year. In the Terai region, which is more conducive to crop production, there was no significant change in dietary quality attributable to the intervention. These results provide evidence that particularly vulnerable families can take advantage of community-level development activities. Given that the effects of community-level development activities were disparate across communities within the same country, we conclude that tailoring development activities for particular locations is necessary for success.     

养羊场户标准化生产经营行为的进化博弈分析

标准化生产经营是转变养羊业生产经营方式，提高养羊业综合实力，实现羊产业健康发展的重要途径。本文运用进化博弈的双种群博弈理论，研究了养羊场户和政府之间关于标准化生产经营行为的决策过程及其影响因素。研究表明，采用标准化生产经营行为的超额收益、补贴收益、奖励资金，以及不采用标准化生产经营行为的环境损失、潜在损失和采用前的风险发生率等对养羊场户采用标准化生产经营行为决策的演进方向有正影响；采用标准化生产经营行为的投入成本和采用后的风险发生率对养羊场户采用标准化生产经营行为决策的演进方向有负影响。     

Total Factor Productivity of the Japanese Rice Industry

We calculate partial factor productivity and total factor productivity (TFP) indices for rice production using panel data across 42 Japanese prefectures from 1996 to 2006, and perform panel unit root tests of TFP convergence across prefectures. We find that during this period, the partial factor productivity growth rates for capital, land and materials stagnated at the aggregate national level, as did the TFP growth rate, despite a large increase in labor productivity. We also identify evidence of a convergence in TFP across Japanese prefectures.     

关于广西农垦建设现代农场发展都市农业的展望

本文从论证建设现代农场都市农业的必要性、可行性入手,延伸出对农垦农场都市农业现状和问题的分析,继而阐述现代农场的模式特点,展望都市农业的前景。