A new energy model to capture the behavior of energy price processes

Owing to the vague fluctuation of energy prices from time to time, a new energy model, which considers both the mean-reverting behavior and the long memory property, is proposed in this paper. Since the problem of estimating parameters, in discrete time for this model, plays a central role in forecast inference, the problem of estimating the unknown parameters has been dealt with for the fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process observed discretely. The asymptotic properties of these estimates are also provided. The numerical simulation results confirm the theoretical analysis and show that our method is effective. To show how to apply our approach in realistic contexts, an empirical study of energy in China, namely Daqing crude oil, is presented. The empirical results seem reasonable when compared to the real data.     

A new economics approach to modelling policies to achieve global 2020 targets for climate stabilisation

This paper explores a Post Keynesian, ‘new economics’ approach to climate policy, assessing the opportunities for investment in accelerated decarbonisation of the global economy to 2020 following the Great Recession of 2008–2009. The risks associated with business-as-usual growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere suggest that avoiding dangerous climate change will require that the world’s energy-economy system is transformed through switching to low-carbon technologies and lifestyles. Governments have agreed a target to hold the increase in temperatures above pre-industrial levels to at most 2°C and have offered reductions by 2020 in GHG emissions or the carbon-intensity of GDP. The effects of policies proposed to achieve pathways to 2020 towards this target are assessed using E3MG, an Energy-Environment-Economy (E3) Model at the Global level. E3MG is an annual simulation econometric model, estimated for 20 world regions over 1972–2006 adopting a new economics approach. Additional low-GHG investment of some 0.7% of GDP, with carbon pricing and other policies, is sufficient to achieve a pathway consistent with a medium chance of achieving the long-term target. GDP is above reference levels because decarbonisation reduces world oil prices and increases investment. Employment is some 0.9% above reference levels by 2020 and public finances are almost unaffected.     

适应能源新形势 促进节能认证工作新发展

能源问题是全球共同关注的一个战略性问题。中国是能源消费大国,能源需求大,而国内能源贮备不足,节能任务十分迫切。为适应新形势下的节能需要,文章建议应采取节能认证的手段,大力促进节能工作的发展。     

Energy balance climate models and general equilibrium optimal mitigation policies

In a general equilibrium model of the world economy, we develop a two-dimensional energy balance climate model featuring heat diffusion and anthropogenic forcing driven by global fossil fuel use across the sphere of the Earth. This introduces an endogenous location dependent temperature function, driving spatial characteristics, in terms of location dependent damages resulting from local temperature anomalies into the standard climate-economy framework. We solve the social planner's problem and characterize the competitive equilibrium for two polar cases differentiated by the degree of market integration. We define optimal taxes on fossil fuel use and how they may implement the planning solution. Our results suggest that if the implementation of international transfers across latitudes is not possible then optimal taxes are in general spatially non-homogeneous and may be lower at poorer latitudes. The degree of spatial differentiation of optimal taxes depends on heat transportation. By employing the properties of the spatial model, we show by numerical simulations how the impact of thermal transport across latitudes on welfare can be studied.     

Profitability and supply price in the US domestic oil industry: implications for the political economy of oil in the twenty-first century

In May 2001, the US Government's National Energy Policy DevelopmentGroup proposed to increase investment in domestic oil resourcesand to diversify further the sourcing of US oil imports by increasingproduction in new petroleum provinces. The paper argues thatboth strands of this policy are dependent upon a third, unstated,objective—to ensure that OPEC retains sufficient marketpower to prevent the sort of collapse in world oil prices thatoccurred in 1998–99. The consequences of that collapse,when the real price of US oil fell to its lowest level in 53years, are explored. Finally, it is argued that the outcomeof the crisis was a rapprochement between OPEC and the US. Itis suggested that the consensus between the US and OPEC as tothe desired range within which the world oil price should moveis likely to survive any temporary political disturbances.     

Plastic wastes and the market penetration of auto shredders

In recent years the increased interest in the recycling of plastic wastes has lead to the development of numerous technological approaches to utilizing plastic wastes of varying qualities and types. A major problem with these technologies, however, is the unacceptable contamination levels in the available wastes. This paper examines one area from which relatively uncontaminated plastic wastes can be obtained—shredder residue from automotive shredder operations. In addition to reviewing the historical adoption of shredders, this paper uses econometric approaches to investigate the extent to which the shredder technology has penetrated the market for scrap steel. These approaches suggest that the movement toward shredders and away from the more conventional baler operations that have historically been used to process retired autos is slowing.     

Bulgaria,Boosting Energy Cooperation with China——Interview with Deputy Minister Yaneva,Ministry of Economy and Energy,the Republic of Bulgaria

Deputy Minister Yaneva of Economy and Energy,the Republic of Bul- garia,a nice lady with outstanding talents,headed a delegation of Bulgaria to visit China in late June,for the participation at the 13th Bulgarian-Chi- nese Intergovernmental Commission for Economic,Trade,Scientific and Technical Cooperation.As an important instrument,the Joint Commission played a significant role in promoting the overall development of the bilat- eral economic relations. China's Foreign Trade interviewed Deputy Minister Yaneva and she gave very constructive suggestions on promoting the bilateral economic and trade cooperation between the two countries,especially in the area of energy cooperation.The following is a written interview with Deputy Min- ister Yaneva.