国外信用风险度量方法及其适用性研究

信用风险是银行面临诸多风险中最重要的风险,如何量化和控制信用风险一直是金融研究的热点领域之一。本文在对国外现代主流信用风险度量模型进行比较研究的基础上,分析了它们各自的特征和适用性,结合中资银行的特点,提出了适合我国国情的信用风险度量模型选取原则,基于我国现状建议在国内推广应用Logistic模型,以期对我国信用风险管理实务有一定的参考价值。     

新农保个人账户设计的改进：基于精算模型的分析

根据国务院《关于开展新型农村社会养老保险试点的指导意见》,对新农保个人账户的精算结果表明：（1）采取固定额度缴费,个人账户积累基金将会累退式增长,且在缴费超过30年后,会出现缴费时间越长,替代率越低的现象;（2）大龄参保农民如果选择较低档次缴费,个人账户养老金基本起不到保障作用;（3）政府对个人账户的缴费补贴机制,不足以激励参保农民在经济条件许可的情况下,选择较高档次参保。基于此,应以固定费率取代固定额度缴费;建立缴费补贴的激励机制,引导大龄参保农民选择较高档次缴费;给予个人账户基金合理的计息利率;建立弹性领取养老金年龄机制。本文均通过精算模型对上述改进建议进行了模拟测算。     

International collaboration and innovation: Evidence from a leading Chinese multinational enterprise

This paper investigates the impact of international collaboration and its characteristics on the quality of the innovation of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in emerging markets. Using a unique dataset of 1428 international and comparable domestic collaboration projects over the 2010–2016 period, it finds that while international innovation collaborations are associated with high innovation quality, cultural distance has a negative effect on collaboration outcomes. Moreover, proximity to the focal firm's overseas R&D centres and the size of expenditure budgets play significant moderating roles in overcoming cultural barriers. Based on the RBV and dynamic capabilities theory, we investigate how firms from emerging markets can acquire these two crucial requisites for innovation. The characteristics of partners and intellectual property (IP) arrangements are also found to have a significant impact on the quality of innovations.     

Why do exports react less to real exchange rate depreciations than to appreciations? Evidence from Pakistan

We examine if and why export responses to real exchange depreciations are lower than those to appreciations. We document this asymmetric response using macro-level data for Pakistan and show that export adjustments after depreciations are less than one-third as fast as those to appreciations. We use product-destination level data to examine three complementary drivers of this asymmetry: (i) information frictions that increase the search costs of finding new clients; (ii) supply constraints related limited access to credit that reduce exporters’ capacity to scale up after relative prices become more favorable; and (iii) reduced prices in US dollars offered by international buyers after local currency depreciations, akin to a pricing-to-market mechanism. We find evidence of the three drivers explaining the dampened export response to depreciations. Policymakers in developing countries should consider addressing these issues to maximize export responses to real depreciations.     

民营科技企业创新绩效分析与评价

创新绩效评价是一项对企业创新的效果与效率进行监督管理的新制度，这种制度在经济发达国家已有一定的实践，但在我国却鲜有研究。本文首先根据我国民营科技企业的发展现状，论证了对民营科技企业进行创新绩效评价的必要性，然后设计了民营科技企业创新绩效评价的指标体系，最后对安徽省按地区统计的民营科技企业创新绩效进行了实证研究。