基于DEA的我国省际高技术产业发展模式及相对优势产业选择

近几年来,高技术产业的发展一直是学术界的热门话题。应用数据包络分析（DEA）模型和聚类方法对我国省际高技术行业进行研究,对目前我国存在的几种高技术产业发展模式进行总结和描述。效率分析不仅有助于了解我国各高技术行业的区域发展情况,更为分辨各区域的优势产业提供了依据。在DEA分析的基础上,运用聚类方法对各省高技术产业发展模式进行了探讨。     

国外小额保险经营模式比较及其对我国的启示

小额保险是增强穷人抵御风险冲击能力、减轻贫困的重要手段。全球范围内小额保险的经营模式主要包括互助或合作保险模式、合作-代理模式及独立经营模式。从国外小额保险的发展实践来看,小额保险的经营模式存在着较大的差异性,这种差异性与各国或地区的社会经济条件、发展阶段及制度环境等的不同密切相关。互助或合作保险模式、合作-代理模式与独立经营模式各自有其自身的优势和劣势。比较分析国外小额保险经营模式的具体特点对我国发展小额保险有着良好的启示。     

Developing land use and transport PSS: Meaningful information through a dialogue between modelers and planners

One of the key barriers to integration of land use and transport planning is the lack of a “common language” (i.e. tools, instruments, indicators) that can support planners from both domains in developing shared visions and integrated strategies. Many of such tools and indicators have been developed in recent years, but not so many are implemented in practice. In this paper a new, participatory development approach for planning support systems (PSS) is proposed, termed “mediated planning support” (MPS) that addresses bottlenecks blocking this implementation. It is founded on insights from knowledge management, system dynamics and software innovation and is applied in the Greater Region of Amsterdam. This paper discusses the evolution of the PSS, highlighting the most useful elements which can be applied in other land use and transport planning projects. It offers insights for practitioners and researchers interested in land use and transport planning integration and for professionals that are dealing with supporting planning with information and technologies.     

计量经济学应用研究的总体回归模型设定

本文从计量经济学应用研究中总体回归模型设定的任务和目标出发,通过对总体模型设定的研究目的导向、经济学理论导向、数据关系导向的分析与评价,提出总体模型设定的唯一性、一般性、现实性和统计检验必要性原则;最后,提出总体回归模型设定的"经济主体动力学关系导向"原则和框架。     

国内上市公司债务融资效率的实证分析

经典公司理论表明,作为硬约束,债务融资能够在一定程度上降低公司内在的代理成本,从而提高公司经营效率。文章利用上海证券交易所A股上市的522家上市公司2003-2008年的财务报表相关数据对此做一个实证研究。时间固定效应模型回归的结果显示,我国上市公司的资产收益率与债务融资率之间呈负相关关系,国内上市公司的债务融资并不能有效控制经营者为最大化自身收益而采取的机会主义行为,代理成本的存在一定程度上降低了公司经营效率。     

Combining biodiversity modeling with political and economic development scenarios for 25 EU countries

In the EURURALIS project, a chain of models was used to predict the changes in sustainable development indicators for European human well-being, ecology and economy issues, for four alternative scenarios of the future socio-economic development. This paper describes the biodiversity analysis of the project. Models based on general relationships between environmental factors and biodiversity loss were combined with socio-economic, land-use and environmental models to derive data that were integrated into an interactive tool for policy makers. The biodiversity analysis takes into account the effects of land-use change, climate change, fragmentation by major roads, area of unfragmented patches, nitrogen deposition, forestry and disturbance. Results show that biodiversity is projected to decrease between now and 2030 in most countries for all scenarios, indicating that it is unlikely that the EU will be able to fulfill its commitment to stop biodiversity loss by 2010. This is mainly due to urbanization and increase in stress factors, and outweighs the area increase of nature arising from land abandonment. Merits, limitations and uncertainties of this approach to biodiversity assessment are discussed.     

Global Value Chains in the Era of 4IR: New Paradigm of Business Models for SMEs

This paper presents a brief literature review of previous studies methodologies,models,and contexts in studying firms’upgrading in Global Value Chains(GVCs).The...     

The effects of tariffs on coalition formation in a dynamic global warming game

The prospects for cooperation on climate protection beyond 2012 are currently uncertain. Thus policy instruments which foster participation in International Environmental Agreements (IEA) are in demand. Among the instruments under discussion are trade sanctions. Multi-region optimal growth models are a state of the art tool for integrated assessment, but introducing trade sanctions distorts the competitive equilibrium, making it difficult to compute numerically. We introduce trade and trade sanctions into a model of coalition stability to assess the potential of trade sanctions to support an IEA. Trade is modeled by having all countries produce a generic output good, but adopting national product differentiation (Armington assumption). Coalitions are free to impose tariffs on imports from non-cooperating countries. We solve the model numerically using a refined version of Negishi's [Negishi, T., 1960. Welfare economics and existence of an equilibrium for a competitive economy. Metroeconomica 12, 92–97] basic algorithm. We then apply the model to analyze the influence of tariffs on international cooperation. The model suggests that there is indeed a significant potential to raise participation through trade sanctions, even when goods from different countries are nearly perfect substitutes. Furthermore we investigate the effect of trade sanctions on global welfare, environmental effectiveness, and the credibility of the tariff mechanism.     

Efficiency tests with overlapping data: an application to the currency options market

This paper presents the results of an empirical study into the efficiency of the currency options market. The methodology derives from a simple model often applied to the spot and forward markets for foreign exchange. It relates the historic volatility of the underlying asset to the implied volatility of an option on the underlying at a specified prior time and then proceeds to test obvious hypotheses about the values of the coefficients. The study uses panel regression to address the problem of overlapping data which leads to dependence between observations. It also uses volatility data directly quoted on the market in order to avoid the biases which may occur when ‘backing out’ volatility from specific option pricing models. In general, the evidence rejects the hypothesis that the currency option market is efficient. This suggests that implied volatility is not the best predictor of future exchange rate volatility and should not be used without modification: the models presented in this paper could be a way of producing revised forecasts.     

Stock returns and economic activity: the UK case

This paper investigates the relationships between real stock returns and a number of financial and economic variables for the UK economy for the period 1980 to 1994. We begin by discussing a theoretical model proposed by Balvers et al. and then re-estimate for the UK what may be regarded as an application of that model by Fama applied to the US market. This reproduces Fama's main results. For the UK we than suggest a slightly, different application of the Balvers model, the most important feature of which is the use of expectational macro-economic variables instead of Fama's use of leading values of industrial production. We then go on to investigate the unit root properties of the data and show that much of the data is indeed characterized by the presence of unit root non stationarity In the light of this, we propose an application of the Phillips-Loretan error-correction model and show that this provides a plausible relationship between real stock returns and most of the financial and economic variables.