Are Corporate Restructuring Events Driven by Common Factors? Implications for Takeover Prediction

Abstract:  The paper shows that variables commonly used in takeover prediction models also help to explain the likelihood of several other restructuring events, including divestitures, bankruptcies and significant employee layoffs. This finding helps to explain the larger misclassification errors in binomial takeover prediction models commonly used in prior research. The results show that modelling takeover prediction models in a binomial setting is likely to lead to misspecification in the parameter estimates and, further, result in erroneous conclusions about the determinants of takeover likelihood. The paper shows that controlling for other restructuring events by using a multinomial framework results in consistently lower misclassification errors in out-of-sample prediction tests, when compared to the benchmark of a typical binomial model.     

民营企业资产重组应注意的问题及对策

资产重组是民营企业摆脱融资困难的有效途径。介绍了资产重组的概念、企业进行资产重组的程序、类型，在此基础上提出了民营企业进行资产重组应注意的问题及对策。     

How to define and study farmers' management capacity: theory and use in agricultural economics

Textbooks and articles on farm management stress the importance of the management capacity of the farmer with respect to his farm results. However, explicit definitions together with an elaboration of this concept are hard to find. In this article, aspects of management capacity are grouped into: (1) personal aspects, consisting of fanner's drives and motivations, fanner's abilities and capabilities and his biographical facts such as age and education; and (2) aspects of the decision-making process, consisting of practices and procedures with respect to planning, implementation and control of decisions at the farm. Empirical studies on the role of management capacity in relation to farm results are reviewed. Frontier production functions are widely used in recent literature to estimate technical and economic efficiency of farms. However, in explaining differences in efficiency most studies do not go further than adding a biographical variabk (e.g., level of education). This study concludes that a next step would be to include aspects of the decision-making process. Longitudinal on-farm observations, which give possibilities for studying the dynamic aspects of the decision-making, are suggested to further analyze the concept of management capacity.     

美国市政债券偿债机制经验及启示

美国市政债券从发行策略、资金用途、偿债来源、举债控制和债务重组五个方面构建完备的偿债机制。我国地方政府应借鉴美国的经验,根据资金用途发行债券以减少偿债风险,开征房产税作为债券偿还的稳定来源,通过立法和社会监督建立地方政府发债的硬约束,通过地方政府破产程序建立地方政府债务重组机制,把地方政府负债作为政绩考核的重要指标,抑制地方政府发债的道德风险。     

阿根廷债务重组：现实困局与制度反思

自2001年主权债务违约后,阿根廷经历了2005年和2010年两次债务互换,但是,由于少数“钉子户”债权人的反对并诉诸司法程序,阿根廷债务重组陷入再次违约的重大风险。回顾阿根廷债务重组的过程以及以对冲基金为主的少数债权人对阿根廷的诉讼,可以清晰地看出阿根廷主权债务重组困境是由阿根廷自身非审慎性的债务重组机制、美国行为的双重标准以及全球主权债务重组基础机制缺失等造成的。随着重债富国问题的出现,主权债务重组中的国内外司法管辖权、私人部门与公共部门参与、集体行动条款与同等权益条款,以及合同法与法定机制等争论更加凸显,建立一个全球性主权债务重组机制是国际金融体系稳定的基础任务。     

网络产业的市场结构重组、民营化与网络瓶颈

在传统体制下,电信、电力、铁路运输、管道燃气、自来水等网络产业基本上是由国有企业垄断经营的。因此,以促进竞争为导向的市场结构重组与民营化是这些网络产业改革的两大主题。但网络产业的改革必然凸现网络瓶颈,这要求政府制定与实施有效的接入管制政策。     

R&;D,International Trade and Creative Destruction—Empirical Findings from Finnish Manufacturing Industries*

The determinants of productivity-enhancing micro-level restructuring are examined empirically with a panel of the twelve Finnish manufacturing industries. It is hypothesized that R&D leads to productivity diversity among plants, which in turn leads to the gradual reshuffling of input shares in the presence of dynamic competitive pressure. The effect of the creative destruction on industry productivity growth is measured with the between-component of productivity decomposition. Econometric results indicate with reasonable robustness that R&D generates creative destruction with a lag of several years. Some evidence is found that imports stimulate productivity-enhancing restructuring, especially when domestic R&D is low.JEL classification: O12, 014, 019, O31, O47*This paper is based on the chapter 8 of my PhD thesis which has been accepted by the Helsinki School of Economics (2003). The research has received financial support from Tekes (the National Technology Agency), and from the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation. This paper has benefited from comments by Petri Böckerman, Pekka Ilmakunnas, Kabor Kezdi, and Petri Rouvinen, to whom I am grateful. I am also thankful to the referees for helpful comments. Lisa Roponen has checked my English. An earlier version of this paper has been presented at the EARIE 2002 conference in Madrid and at the Summer at CEU Workshop in Budapest in 2003. Data work and computations have been carried out at Statistics Finland, in accordance with the terms and conditions of confidentiality. I also wish to thank many individuals at Statistics Finland for their guidance regarding the properties of the data. Please contact the Research Laboratory of the Business Structures Unit, Statistics Finland, FIN-00022, Finland, for access to these data. The usual disclaimer applies.     

国有商业银行股份制改造:目标模式及可操作性步骤

国有商业银行股份制改造的突破口应放在有条件的省级分行，其目标模式应为国有独资总行＋股份制银行＋分支行。其可操作性步骤为：将省级以下分支机构进行重组与兼并；将四大国有商业银行总行改组为四家国有独资总行；对部分条件成熟的省级分行进行股份制改造，使其成为由总行控股的子公司；将符合上市要求的上市发行股票。     

Changing Sources of Household Income,Poverty, and Sectoral Inequality in Sri Lanka, 1990–2006

Comparing dynamic changes in household income and poverty among urban, rural, and estate sectors in Sri Lanka from 1990 to 2006, this study finds that a shift of household income away from farm to nonfarm sources is accompanied by a significant improvement in household income and reduction in poverty, particularly in the rural sector. Major contributing factors are the rise in returns to labor, in general, and educated labor, in particular, due to the development of the nonfarm labor market. Persistently low income among estate households can be explained primarily by the limited availability of nonfarm employment opportunities and the low education levels of working members.