Scarcity of safe assets,inflation, and the policy trap

A goal of this paper is to make sense of the seemingly puzzling behavior of interest rates and inflation – and the role of central banks in that behavior – during and after the Great Recession, particularly in the United States. To this end, we construct a model in which government debt plays a key role in exchange, and can bear a liquidity premium. If asset market constraints bind, then there need not be deflation under an indefinite zero interest rate policy (ZIRP). Further, ZIRP may not be optimal under these circumstances. A Taylor-rule central banker could be subject to a ZIRP trap and persistently undershoot target inflation. As well, a liquidity premium on government debt creates additional Taylor rule perils, because of a persistently low real interest rate. We make a case that this is the key policy predicament currently faced by many central banks in the world.     

Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis

This paper aims to analyse the feasibility of policy coordination among the ASEAN-5 economies. This is done by determining whether they experience symmetric responses to common shocks. Given that the problem of dimensionality plagues large-scale macroeconomic modelling, a Global VAR model by Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner (2004) and Dees, Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007) is used. The results in this paper provide some weak evidence of symmetric responses to the common (global) shocks of interest: a US monetary policy shock, a US output shock, a Chinese output shock; an oil price shock. Shocks from the US produced the most symmetric responses. The lack of symmetry in some cases has implications for further policy coordination. Since migrant remittances could provide an adjustment mechanism, further labour market integration is needed as it currently lags behind trade and financial integration in the region.     

Certification and minimum quality standards when some consumers are uninformed

We compare certification to a minimum quality standard (MQS) policy in a duopolistic industry where firms incur quality-dependent fixed costs and only a fraction of consumers observe the quality of the offered goods. Compared to the unregulated outcome, both profits and social welfare would increase if firms could commit to producing a higher quality. An MQS restricts the firms׳ quality choice and leads to less differentiated goods. This fuels competition and may therefore deter entry. A certification policy, which awards firms with a certificate if the quality of their products exceeds some threshold, does not restrict the firms׳ quality choice. In contrast to an MQS, certification may lead to more differentiated goods and higher profits. We find that firms are willing to comply with an ambitious certification standard if the share of informed consumers is small. In that case, certification is more effective from a welfare perspective than a minimum quality standard because it is less detrimental to entry.     

Macroeconomic impacts of fiscal policy shocks in the UK: A DSGE analysis

This paper develops and estimates a new-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the analysis of fiscal policy in the UK. We find that government consumption and investment yield the highest GDP multipliers in the short-run, whereas capital income tax and public investment have dominating effect on GDP in the long-run. When nominal interest rate is at the zero lower bound, consumption taxes and public consumption and investment are found to be the most effective fiscal instruments throughout the analysed horizon, and capital and labour income taxes are established to be the least effective. The paper also shows that the effectiveness of fiscal policy decreases in a small open-economy scenario and that nominal rigidities improve effectiveness of public spending and consumption taxes, whereas decrease that of income taxes.     

Privatisation,empowerment and accountability: What are the policy implications for establishing effective farmer organisations?

Weak institutional development and information flows have constrained the extent to which the smallholder farming sector in developing countries can significantly drive growth and poverty reduction. This is despite widely implemented economic liberalisation policies focussing on market efficiency. Farmer organisations are viewed as a potential means of addressing public and private institutional failure but this has frequently been limited by inequalities in access to power and information. This article investigates two issues that have received little research attention to date: what role downward accountability plays in enabling farmer organisations to improve services and markets, and what influences the extent to which downward accountability is achieved. Kenya Tea Development Agency (KTDA), one of the largest farmer organisations in the world (>400,000 farmers) is examined alongside wider literature. Mixed methods were used including key informant interviews, and eight months of participant observation followed by a questionnaire survey. The article concludes that without effective downward accountability farmer organisations can become characterised by institutions and mechanisms that favour elites, restricted weak coordination and regulation, and manipulated information flows. This in turn reduces individuals’ incentives to invest. If farmer organisations are to realise their potential as a means of enabling the smallholder sector to significantly contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction, policy and research needs to address key factors which influence accountability including: how to ensure initial processes in formation of farmer organisations establish appropriate structures and rules; strong state regulation to enhance corporate accountability; transparent information provision regarding actions of farmer organisation leaders; and the role independent non-government organisations can play. Consequently attention needs to focus on developing means of legitimising rights, building poor people's capacity to challenge exclusion, and moving from rights to obligations regarding information provision.     

Economic growth and income inequality in the Asia-Pacific region: A comparative study of China,Japan, South Korea,and the United States

This paper builds an inequality-growth-redistribution nexus, and applies the Engle–Granger two-step ECM approach to estimate the long-run and short-run relationships between inequality and growth for four economies: China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Our estimation results support the S-shaped curve hypothesis relating GDP per capita to inequality with different starting points for the four economies. For the reverse relationship, we find a positive causal relationship for China, Japan, and the United States, indicating that increased income inequality spurred economic growth. In addition, we find mixed results on the effect of trade openness on inequality and growth. Trade openness reduced inequality in the United States and Japan, worsened it in China and had no significant effect in South Korea. In the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, exports provided an impetus to economic growth for Japan. As for redistribution, although fiscal redistributive measures reduced inequality in Japan, they played no major role in the other three countries. With regard to the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, all countries except for China show a negative effect of fiscal redistribution on GDP per capita.     

资源配置视角下战略性新兴产业基地建设决策过程研究

采用案例分析法，以国家传感网创新示范区建设的决策过程为研究对象，从资源配置视角重新审视了战略性新兴产业基地建设的决策过程。结果表明，在战略性新兴产业基地建设决策过程中，地方政府充分发挥了主观能动性，与中央政府、科研机构及企业积极互动，获得了建设产业基地的资源。同时，中央政府完成了与产业基地甄选及部署相关的资源配置。     

A spatial microsimulation approach for the analysis of commuter patterns: from individual to regional levels

The daily trip to work is ubiquitous, yet its characteristics differ widely from person to person and place to place. This is manifested in statistics on mode and distance of travel, which vary depending on a range of factors that operate at different scales. This heterogeneity is problematic for decision makers tasked with encouraging more sustainable commuter patterns. Numerical models, based on real commuting data, have great potential to aid the decision making process. However, we contend that new approaches are needed to advance knowledge about the social and geographical factors that relate to the diversity of commuter patterns, if policies targeted to specific individuals or places are to be effective. To this end, the paper presents a spatial microsimulation approach, which combines individual-level survey data with geographically aggregated census results to tackle the problem. This method overcomes the limitations imposed by the lack of available geocoded micro-data. Further, it allows a range of scales of analysis to be pursued in parallel and provides insights into both the types of area and individual that would benefit most from specific interventions.     

Financial fragility,sovereign default risk and the limits to commercial bank bail-outs

We show that with intertwined weak banks and weak sovereigns, bank recapitalizations become much less effective. We construct a DSGE model with leverage constrained banks lending to firms and holding domestic government bonds. Bond prices reflect endogenously generated sovereign risk. This introduces a negative amplification cycle: after a credit crisis output losses increase more because higher interest rates trigger lower bond prices and subsequent losses at banks. This further tightens bank leverage constraints, and causes interest rates to rise further. Also bank recapitalizations are then much less effective. Recaps involve swaps of newly issued sovereign bonds for bank equity, the new debt increases sovereign debt discounts, leading to capital losses for the banks on their holdings of sovereign debt that (partially) offset the impact of the recapitalization. The favorable macroeconomic effects of bank recaps on the recovery after a financial crisis are correspondingly lower.     

地方政府人才引进政策促进了区域创新吗？——来自准自然实验的证据

高技能人力资本对于我国经济转型的重要性不言而喻。本文以2009—2012年间39个城市集中出台的地方人才引进政策为准自然实验,采用多期政策的双重差分法,结合机制分析和异质性分析,探究了人才政策出台前后区域创新能力的变化及其背后的机制和深层次原因,并分析政策效应在不同的地区营商环境、科教事业投入力度、知识产权保护程度下的差异。本文主要结论包括,地方人才引进政策总体上提高了当地的专利授权总量和专利价值总量;显著增加了研发投入的规模,但创新效率没有得到明显提升;在营商环境较差的地区,政策的效应侧重于提高专利数量,营商环境较好的地区则侧重于提升专利价值;在科教投入力度本身就很大的地区,政策效果较小,在科教投入弱的地区效果会更明显;在知识产权保护程度弱的地区,政策效果更多地表现为提高专利数量,保护程度强的地区,则侧重于提升专利价值。上述结论对地方政府优化人才激励政策、实施创新驱动发展战略具有一定的政策启示。