欧美国家第二住宅政策及其对中国的启示

本文以欧美国家为例,通过建立制度环境、地方影响和第二住宅政策分析框架来说明第二住宅是在特定制度环境下的产物,并针对第二住宅的不同影响程度提出相应的政策,指出借鉴欧美国家的第二住宅政策必须要考虑制度环境的差异,以及地方影响程度的差异和政策作用机制。文章还分析了中国的制度环境和第二住宅的地方影响,以及现有政策的演变和存在的问题,提出了相应的政策建议。     

房地产税改革对公租房制度的政策支持分析

2007年以来,我国住房保障体系建设取得了突破性进展,公租房则是近期住房保障制度的重要创新。随着房地产税改革步伐的加快,新的房地产税制必将对公租房的建设和运营形成制度约束。本文在厘清公租房属性和制度要点的基础上,分析现行房地产税制对公租房建设和运营的制度约束,对最近上海和重庆的房产税试点改革进行评述,讨论房地产税改革取向并提出支持公租房制度的建议。     

Fiscal stimulus and the role of wage rigidity

In this paper we study the impact of an expansion in public spending in an economy characterized by limited asset market participation and sticky wages. The flexible wage version of the model implies strong expansionary effects on output and consumption but also a counterfactual increase in real wages. The introduction of sticky wages, besides being a realistic addition, solves this problem and preserves the expansionary effects on output and consumption. Moreover, once we introduce segmentation in the labor market, sticky wages are even essential to obtain expansionary effects.     

On predictive distributions of public net liabilities

The analysis of the sustainability of public sector finances requires an accounting of all future revenues and all future spending that we would expect, under current tax laws and current entitlements. The classical calculation does not acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of the future economic and demographic developments, so the results can be misleading. Our aim is to produce a more robust summary of the sustainability of the public sector than the one currently available. By taking a forecasting point of view, our formulation takes into account the uncertainty of future productivity, stock and bond markets, and demography. Methodological complications that arise in the stochastic setting are discussed. Estimates of the relative roles of economics and demographics in the uncertainty of public net liabilities are presented.     

会展业集聚的系统动力学研究

产业集聚的影响已经引起国内外的学者的重视,会展业作为一个综合性产业,能同时带动多个经济面的发展。本文以系统动力学理论为基础,结合会展业产业集群的正负反馈特征,对会展业与基础产业、产业政策等因果关系进行了探讨。通过会展产业集聚效应的研究,利用Vensim构建系统动力学模型,分析制约会展产业集聚效应发挥的主要因素,并以上海地区会展业为例,运行模型,结果表明,模型对产业集聚效应的实际演化过程具有较高的拟合程度,并能够为区域经济管理提供有效的决策支持。     

国有企业“债转股”政策:功能缺陷与制度依赖——项基于国有企业“债转股”政策跟踪调查的研究

伴随着我国经济体制改革向纵深发展,国有企业负债比率过高的问题更加突出显示出来。为了解决这个问题,我国实施了“债转股”政策。本文讨论四个命题:(1)国有企业是负债比率过高还是收益率过低;(2)“债转股”政策究竟是使国有企业“财务解困”还是“体制解困”;(3)“债转股”政策究竟是转移金融风险还是化解金融风险;(4)资产管理公司为国有企业和国有商业银行解困,将来谁为资产管理公司解困。本文认为“债转股”政策设计存在功能缺陷与制度依赖。国有企业“债转股”政策的成功依赖于国有企业(商业银行)现代企业制度的建立与完善。     

我国企业年金税惠政策的成本和收益精算评估

企业年金个人所得税递延政策于2014年1月1日开始实施,政策调整必然会带来相应的成本和收益。基于我国特殊的人口结构状况,本文通过建立精算模型进行模拟,具体分析税惠政策的实施在未来50年内的成本和收益,并运用成本收益比和覆盖率两个变量进行评价。模拟结果发现：若税惠政策能够促进企业年金发展,使得覆盖率增加,成本收益比会逐渐在16%~17%的水平保持稳定。本文进一步研究了延迟退休政策和死亡率变化对税惠成本和收益的影响。     

State dependence in youth labor market experiences, and the evaluation of policy interventions

We investigate the extent and type of state dependence in labor market outcomes for young low-skilled Australians. Our model allows for three labor force states, employment, unemployment and out of the labor force, and for observed and unobserved heterogeneity. We find evidence of occurrence dependence, but no lagged duration dependence. A past employment spell increases the probability of employment in the future, but the length of the spell does not matter. A past spell of unemployment undoes the positive benefits from a spell in employment. Interpretations of these effects and implications for labor market policies are discussed.     

Is econometrics useful for private policy making? A case study of replacement policy at an auto rental company

The goal of this paper is to illustrate the potential usefulness of econometrics as a tool to assist private policy makers. We provide a case study and detailed econometric analysis of the automobile replacement policy adopted by a large car rental company. Unlike public policy making–where the benefits from using econometric models and “science-based” approaches to policy making are hard to quantify because the outcomes of interest are typically subjective quantities such as “social welfare”–in the case of firms there is an objective, easily quantifiable criterion for judging whether policy A is better than policy B: profits. We introduce and estimate an econometric model of the rental histories of individual cars in the company’s fleet. Via stochastic simulations, we show that the model provides a good approximation to the company’s actual operations. In particular, the econometric model is able to reproduce the extraordinarily high rates of return that the company obtains on its rental cars, with average internal rates of return between purchase and sale of approximately 50%. However, the econometric model can simulate outcomes under a range of counterfactual vehicle replacement policies. We use the econometric model to simulate the profitability of an alternative replacement policy under pessimistic assumptions about the rate maintenance costs would increase and rental rates would have to be decreased if the company were to keep its rental cars longer than it does under the status quo. Depending on the vehicle type, we find that the company’s expected discounted profits would be between 6% to over 140% higher under the suggested alternative operating strategy where vehicles are kept longer and rental rates of older vehicles are discounted to induce customers to rent them. The company found this analysis to be sufficiently convincing that it undertook an experiment to verify the predictions of the econometric model.     

绍兴、吴江农村城市化的情况调研

通过对江苏吴江市和浙江绍兴县两地部分建制镇和部分原农村居民点的实地调研 ,作者认为 ,目前两地农村工业化、城市化处于发展的上升期 :中心镇经济和城市化发展相当快 ;中心镇以下的部分行政村异地或就地实现城市化。在城市化进程中 ,以下问题有待探讨解决 :迁村并点、撤乡并镇的速度与规模 ;城镇建设用地指标及相关政策 ;社区建设改造过程中 ,农民征地拆迁补偿标准和社会保障等。