我国M_2/GDP的动态增长路径、货币供应量与政策选择

本文试图求解我国M2/GDP的动态增长路径,并对与此相关的金融政策选择进行分析。研究发现,我国M2/GDP的变动路径具有Logistic曲线的基本形状,将经历先加速上升后增长速度逐渐减缓,最终趋于稳定状态的变化过程。本文估算了我国M2/GDP的增长上限及其变化拐点。研究还发现,M2/GDP的上升并不必然意味着通胀压力加大,只有M2/GDP偏离动态增长路径时,才会对通货膨胀产生影响。据此本文估算了2005年货币供应量的合理区间。本文认为,应继续实施稳健货币政策,合理确定货币总量增长速度,继续推进体制性改革等措施确保经济金融的稳定运行。     

我国财政收支划分的立法研究

财政收支划分是财政管理体制的重要组成部分.在市场经济体制下,财政收支划分立法有利于政府职能的履行和公共财政的运行,是完善分税制财政管理体制的丛然要求.完整的财政收支划分法律制度应当由财政级次划分、财政收支分类、财政支出划分和财政收入划分等制度构成.     

岩溶地区的水土流失及治理

滇、黔、桂的岩溶是我国最集中的分布区域。该地区的水土流失，不仅使农业生态环境迅速恶化，而且制约着农村经济的发展。本文就该地区水土流失的现状、危害，对其成因及治理对策作了探讨。     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Euro Area

The problem of monetary and fiscal policy interactions is an important issue for the euro area, since the individual member states of the EMU are responsible for their fiscal policies but monetary policy is pursued by a single monetary authority, the ECB. This paper is concerned with empirical evidence on monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the euro area. We first explore fiscal regimes with a VAR model and find empirical evidence that a non-Ricardian fiscal policy has been pursued in both France and Germany. As an example, we then study how one member state of the EMU, namely, Italy, is responding to the common monetary policy with its fiscal policy and find that Italian fiscal policy seemed to be counteractive to the common monetary policy between 1979 and 1998. In order to study monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a more general way, we explore time-varying interactions by estimating a State-Space model with Markov-switching for some Euro-area countries. There appear to be some regime changes in monetary and fiscal policy interactions in France and Germany, but the interactions between the two policies are not strong. Moreover, the two policies have not been accommodative but counteractive to each other. Finally we explore forward-looking behavior in policy interactions and find that expectations do not seem to have played an important role in the policy designs.     

民营企业投融资难的化解途径探寻

《中小企业促进法》的颁布实施，标志着我国中小企业的发展已经进入了规范化和法制化的轨道．但是资金短缺仍是困扰民间投资发展的“瓶颈”问题。化解这一难题的出路就是：信用是前提，政策是根本．银行是保证，创新是关键。     

关于解决流动性过剩问题的初步思考

本文从流动性的内涵和外延入手,分析了我国流动性过剩的全球背景和我国流动性过剩的表现及结构性特点,提出了解决流动性过剩,要坚持"市场为主、各方联动、化多为少、化少为多、标本兼治、综合解决"的思路,指出当前重点是解决经常账户顺差过大,流动性过剩的来源问题,以及农村地区资金匮乏,导致资金配置结构性失衡的问题。     

企业职工薪酬激励程度核算研究

职工薪酬激励程度和职工的努力程度均难以直接观察,这直接导致企业激励政策的盲目性.本文通过分析,提出企业薪酬激励程度核算方法,利用相关数据建构企业薪酬激励程度与企业增加值之间的回归模型,并结合有关激励模型确定企业职工最优薪酬激励程度,为企业制定薪酬激励政策提供参考依据.     

关于“双顺差”背景下实现中国内外均衡的思考

内外均衡目标是指充分就业、物价稳定、经济增长及国际收支均衡。目前，中国正面临通货紧缩的压力和国际收支双顺差的格局，因此需通过扩张性的财政及货币政策进行协调，同时辅以汇率及利率政策。只有内外兼顾统一才能使经济实现稳定发展。     

中国外汇储备对货币政策的影响

20世纪90年代中期以来,我国外汇储备在国际收支双顺差和外汇管理体制改革的推动下超常增长,并成为制约货币政策有效性的重要因素。本文从理论上阐明了在开放经济条件下,外汇储备与货币政策的内在逻辑联系;从实证角度剖析了外汇储备变动对我国货币政策调控的冲击,以及引起汇率政策与货币政策的冲突。我国应改革现行的外汇管理制度,加大公开市场业务操作力度,促使国际收支结构平衡,以提高货币政策实施的自主性和灵活性。     

How to reform China’s fiscal system?

ABSTRACT

As the population aging, China’s government expenditures, including general fiscal expenditure, healthcare and social security expenditure, will grow more rapidly than government revenues, tending to elevate government debt. Local governments undertake overwhelming 85% of total general fiscal revenue and are responsible for healthcare and social security, and their debt has been growing. Fiscal reforms are imperative, including tax reforms, the structure of government spending reforms, social security reforms, healthcare reforms, local public finance reforms, and central and local government’s fiscal relationship reforms. This paper will explore the fiscal challenges China faces and discuss how to reform the fiscal system to cope with these challenges.