上海法治水平对金融发展的影响分析

以1997-2009年的上海数据为样本,通过带有控制变量的向量误差修正模型（VECM）和格兰杰（Granger）因果检验方法,研究法治水平与金融发展规模、效率以及银行业竞争之间的相关关系和因果关系.检验结果表明：法治水平与金融发展规模、效率及银行业竞争之间存在长期稳定均衡关系;法治水平的提高是促进金融发展规模、效率以及银行业竞争的格兰杰原因.因此,“国际金融中心”的建设不仅要注重法律体系的完善,更要加强法治.     

Reexamining the time-varying volatility spillover effects: A Markov switching causality approach

This paper intends to examine the volatility spillover effect between selective developed markets including U.S., U.K., Germany, Japan and Hong Kong over the sample period from 1996 to 2011. We introduce a Markov switching causality method to model the potential instability of volatility spillover relationships over market tranquil or turmoil periods. This method is more flexible as no prior information on the changing points or size of sample window is needed. From the empirical results, we find the evidence of the existence of spillover effects among most markets, and the bilateral volatility spillover effects are more prominent over turmoil or crisis episodes, especially during Asia crisis and subprime mortgage crisis periods. Moreover, the distinct role of each market is also investigated.     

我国广播电视事业发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

“十二五”是发展公共文化服务的大好时期,广播电视作为公共文化服务体系的重要组成部分越来越引起人们的关注.选取2007-2011年相关数据,对我国广播电视事业发展水平进行主成分分析,可知我国广播电视业五年来呈平稳发展趋势；采用回归模型对我国广播电视事业发展与经济增长关系进行实证研究,结果表明二者之间存在良性互动关系和单向因果关系.推动我国经济平稳较快增长,对繁荣我国广播电视事业具有重要意义.     

Public or Private Sector Wage Leadership? An International Perspective*

Whether a government acts as a wage leader, placing pressure on private‐sector wages (more open to competition), or whether it plays a passive role and merely follows wage negotiations in the private sector, there are important implications for macroeconomic development, particularly in small open economies and/or countries that are members of a monetary union, such as those of the European Monetary Union. With the notable exception of the case of Sweden, opinion on this issue is still divided. In this paper, we look at public‐ and private‐sector wage interactions from an international perspective (18 OECD countries). We focus on the causal two‐way relationship between public and private wage setting, confirming that the private sector, on the whole, appears to have a stronger influence on the public sector, rather than vice versa. However, we also find evidence of feedback effects from public wage setting, which affect private‐sector wages in a number of countries. When the private sector takes the lead on wages, there are few feedback effects from the public sector, while public wage leadership is typically accompanied by private‐sector feedback effects.     

货币政策对我国证券业产业结构、行为和绩效的作用主辅线分析

本文综述了政策与我国证券产业结构、行为和绩效作用路径方面的研究成果,将货币政策按照作用对象的不同分为两类,对这两类货币政策与证券业结构、行为和绩效进行格兰杰因果检验,进而提出了货币政策对我国证券业产业结构、行为和绩效的作用主辅线。     

Customer demotion in hierarchical loyalty programmes

Hierarchical loyalty programmes are popular in many service industries, as a means to tie customers to the company and improve customer relationships. In these programmes, customers obtain more benefits if they spent more but are demoted if they spent less. This study focuses on demotion and suggests that customer demotion can have an asymmetrical negative effect on customers' trust, commitment, and loyalty. The effect appears strongest for demoted customers with an external locus of causality. An experimental study also shows that customer loyalty is lower for demoted customers than for customers who were never elevated.     

出口贸易与外商直接投资关系研究

根据江苏改革开放以来的相关数据，运用ADF检验、协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验等研究方法，对27年来江苏出口贸易与外商在苏直接投资之间的关系进行计量研究，回答了以下两个问题：一是对外出口贸易与外商直接投资之间到底是替代、互补还是根本不存在任何关系；二是两者何为因果。     

Going Alone: The Case for Relaxed Reciprocity in Freeing Trade

We examine the output elasticity of infrastructure for four South Asian countries viz., India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka using panel cointegration techniques for the period 1980–2005. In this context, we develop an index of infrastructure stocks and investigate the impact of infrastructure on output. The study finds a long-run equilibrium relationship between output and infrastructure along with other relevant variables, such as gross domestic capital formation (GDCF), labor force, international trade and human capital. The results reveal that GDCF, labor force, export and expenditure on human capital exhibit a positive contribution to output. More importantly, infrastructure development contributes significantly to output growth in South Asia. Further, the panel causality analysis shows that there is mutual feedback between total output and infrastructure development.     

Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in South Africa

The causal link between tourism receipts and GDP has recently become a major focus in the tourism economics literature. Results obtained in recent studies about the causal link appear to be sensitive with respect to the countries analysed, sample period and methodology employed. Considering the sensitivity of the causal link, we use rolling window and time-varying coefficient estimation methods to analyse the parameter stability and Granger causality based on a vector error correction model (VECM). When applied to South Africa for the period 1960–2011, the findings are as follows: results from the full-sample VECM indicate that there is no Granger causality between tourism receipts and GDP, while the findings from the time-varying coefficients model based on the state-space representation show that tourism receipts have positive-predictive content for GDP for the entire period, with the exception of the period between 1985 and 1990. Full-sample time-varying causality tests show bidirectional strong causality between tourism receipts and GDP.