领先顾客的消费者创新性对新能源汽车采用意愿的影响

将领先顾客的消费者创新性分为3个维度——一般创新性、特定创新性和替代创新性。界定了3个维度的具体内涵,并将参照群体示范效应作为消费者创新性的3个维度与新能源汽车采用意愿之间的调节变量。结合技术接受模型,从内外部动机的视角研究消费者创新性对新能源汽车采用意愿的影响机制。在此基础上,构建新能源汽车采用意愿的结构方程模型,对研究假设进行验证。实证结果显示:消费者创新性的3个维度以及感知有用性、感知风险对新能源汽车采用意愿具有不同程度的显著影响;参照群体示范效应有显著的调节作用;感知易用性对新能源汽车采用意愿的影响不显著。     

沪市股票定价判断的计量研究

基本面因素、技术面因素、热点信息的转换和各种板块的创立 ,通过复杂交互作用影响股价的波动。利用统计分析方法 ,考察并确定与上市公司股价之间的基本关系因素 ,建立股票定价基本模型 ,就绩优股、业绩较优股、业绩较差股、绩差股进行实证研究 ,判断出沪市股票定价的基本趋势 ,旨在为投资者的科学投资提供参考     

上市公司财务状况理想点评价模型的构建及实证研究

文章通过对上市公司财务比率进行分析,构建了上市公司财务状况的评价指标体系及其理想点评价模型,并应用变异系数法对上市公司财务指标进行了客观赋权,应用构建的综合评价模型对上市公司财务状况进行了有效、合理的评价。     

基于大规模定制延迟制造技术的时间模型及快速响应方法研究

本文通过大规模定制生产模式的论述，指出延迟制造技术是解耦大规模定制中时间、成本和个性化的矛盾问题的较好的解决方式，并对延迟制造技术进行了新的分类。针对大规模定制的快速响应问题，提取了面向大规模定制的时间模型并进行了分析；最后指出大规模定制快速响应问题的解决方案是基于延迟制造基础上的可重组制造系统。     

A mixture model for credit card exposure at default using the GAMLSS framework

The Basel II and III Accords propose estimating the credit conversion factor (CCF) to model exposure at default (EAD) for credit cards and other forms of revolving credit. Alternatively, recent work has suggested it may be beneficial to predict the EAD directly, i.e.modelling the balance as a function of a series of risk drivers. In this paper, we propose a novel approach combining two ideas proposed in the literature and test its effectiveness using a large dataset of credit card defaults not previously used in the EAD literature. We predict EAD by fitting a regression model using the generalised additive model for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) framework. We conjecture that the EAD level and risk drivers of its mean and dispersion parameters could substantially differ between the debtors who hit the credit limit (i.e.“maxed out” their cards) prior to default and those who did not, and thus implement a mixture model conditioning on these two respective scenarios. In addition to identifying the most significant explanatory variables for each model component, our analysis suggests that predictive accuracy is improved, both by using GAMLSS (and its ability to incorporate non-linear effects) as well as by introducing the mixture component.     

农业补贴政策的有效性研究及其政策改革分析——基于顺序logistic模型的分析

本文通过对全国的农村地区做随机性的抽样调查,将所获得的样本数据作顺序logistic计童分析以验证农业补贴政策的有效性,得出如下的结论:虽然农业补贴提高了农户的生活水平,但农业物资价格的上涨和部门间的比较利益的存在,在一定程度上抑制了农业补贴的产出水平.最后就所得到的结论对农业补贴的补贴范围、补贴方式和补贴额度提出了相关的政策改革建议.     

Determining the optimal dimension of a work-in-process storage area

We study the problem of determining the optimal dimension of a work-in-process storage area in a two-line production system with delays and breakdowns. We propose a stochastic model and prove theoretical results that allow us to implement an exact algorithm for the solution of the model. We optimally solve a real instance and carry out a sensitivity analysis to evaluate if the optimal solution is stable when the initial data are perturbed.     

高速公路工程不动产价值的动态收益还原法研究

本文分析了高速公路工程不动产的经营收益构成和运营成本构成,应用随机时间序列模型和工程不动产评估理论建立了高速公路工程不动产的净经营收益动态预测模型和还原率动态预测模型,为实现公路工程不动产价值的传统经验静态评估提升及科学动态评估奠定基础。     

A network approach to modeling the multi-echelon spare-part inventory system with backorders and interval-valued demand

A multi-echelon inventory system implies the existence of a hierarchy of stocking locations, and the dependence and interaction between them. We consider a multi-echelon, spare-part inventory management problem with outsourcing and backordering. The problem is characterized by deterministic repair time/cost, and supply and demand that lie within prescribed intervals and that vary over time. The objective is to minimize the total inventory and transportation costs. We develop a network model for problem analysis and present a network flow algorithm for solving the problem. We prove that the Wagner-Whitin property, known for the lot-sizing problem, can be extended to the spare-part inventory management problem under study.