我国锌期货市场功能发挥的实证研究

运用协整检验、Granger因果检验、向最误差修正模型、Garhade-silber模型、误差修正模型等对2007年6月11日到2008年9月18日上海期货交易所锌期货合约的价格发现功能和套期保值功能进行研究,结果表明:锌期货与现货价格存在双向引导关系,锌期货市场在价格发现功能中处于主导地位,锌期货价格发现功能良好.锌期货样本内和样本外套期保值绩效分别为0.50074044和0.43854111,样本内套期保值绩效优于样本外套期保值绩效.我国锌期货市场具有一定的套期保值功能,但套期保值功能并未得到充分发挥,2008年6月到2008年9月锌期货市场投机氛围严重.     

对商业银行汇率风险管理问题的思考

伴随着汇率体制改革和中国资本市场的不断开放,汇率风险成为商业银行不得不面对的重要话题.本文对商业银行的汇率风险从基本理论概念、计量方法到管理方法的国内外相关资料进行分类总结,为我国商业银行的汇率风险管理问题提供了有益的思考.     

Operational hedging against adverse circumstances

This paper investigates operational hedging against severe disruptions to normal operations. It offers a new method to evaluate the extent that operations policy serves as a hedge against adverse circumstances. We apply the proposed method to explore how supply chain characteristics affect the responses of airlines to the acute demand fall off after the September 11 terrorist attacks. Results indicate that operational hedging vehicles (fleet standardization, high-fleet utilization, an aircraft ownership policy rather than leasing, and international operations) are more powerful in protecting firms than using financial instruments. The study contributes in guiding managers as to how operations policy can serve as an imperative factor in mitigating exposures to low-end performance levels.     

Modelling exchange-traded barrier options traded in the Australian options market

Barrier options traded in the Australian market vary considerably in terms of the extent to which the barrier is monitored and in terms of the location of the barrier level relative to the exercise price. This paper examines the impact of these differences on prices and also on deltas and gammas. We find that it is not possible to generalize results concerning hedge parameter values to all barrier options. We find that options examined by Easton et al. (2004) do not display discontinuity of deltas at the barrier levels and that their apparent overpricing cannot be attributed to hedging difficulties.     

Pricing and hedging European options with discrete-time coherent risk

The aim of the paper is to provide as explicit as possible expressions for upper/lower prices and for superhedging/subhedging strategies based on discrete-time coherent risk measures. This is done on three levels of generality. For a general infinite-dimensional model, we prove the fundamental theorem of asset pricing. For a general multidimensional model, we provide expressions for prices and hedges. For a wide class of models, in particular, including GARCH, we give more concrete formulas, a sufficient condition for the uniqueness of a hedging strategy, and a numerical algorithm.      

论国内市场寻找最佳避险比率的过程

国内即将推出指数期货，投资者可以利用期货来规避现货投资的风险，但如何寻找最佳的避险比率呢？本文通过欧美日港台等市场的比较研究，认为国内可能需要采用二阶段估计法寻找最佳的避险比率，而且，对于国内股票市场来说，β值在某些时候出现较大的跳动，因此，应该采用相关修正模型调整历史β值。本文的结论为即将推出指数期货的国内市场提供了重要的实践指导建议。     

Optimal close-to-home biases in asset allocation

This article studies optimal portfolio decisions with (long-term) liabilities for small open economy based investors, including the optimality of currency hedging (Walker (2008a). Chile is the home country of the representative investor, but results are likely to hold more generally. The problem is set up as in [Sharpe & Tint, 1990] and [Hoevenaars et al., 2007]. Hedging the liabilities and the consumption currency may imply optimal close-to-home biases, defined as overweighting asset classes which are highly correlated with local ones. The implementation challenges include: developing a methodology to estimate expected returns in local (real) currency; estimating the covariance matrix allowing for serial and crossed-serial correlations; and checking the results' robustness using a resampling method. The findings are: (i) portfolios always have optimal close-to-home biases, beyond the investment in local fixed income to hedge liabilities; (ii) currency hedging reduces investment in close-to-home asset classes, (iii) but has ambiguous effects on welfare — detected with the resampling method; (iv) currency hedged long-term US bonds are useful for hedging local interest rate risk; and (v) liabilities give access to high risk-return portfolios, not affecting otherwise the overall shape of the efficient regions. This article can be useful to investors based on small open economies, including pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds and Central Banks.     

The cheapest hedge

Investors often wish to insure themselves against the payoff of their portfolios falling below a certain value. One way of doing this is by purchasing an appropriate collection of traded securities. However, when the derivatives market is not complete, an investor who seeks portfolio insurance will also be interested in the cheapest hedge that is marketed. Such insurance will not exactly replicate the desired insured-payoff, but it is the cheapest that can be achieved using the market.Analytically, the problem of finding a cheapest insuring portfolio is a linear programming problem. The present paper provides an alternative portfolio dominance approach to solving the minimum-premium insurance portfolio problem. This affords remarkably rich and intuitive insights to determining and describing the minimum-premium insurance portfolios.     

Pricing and hedging contingent claims using variance and higher order moment swaps

This paper suggests perfect hedging strategies of contingent claims under stochastic volatility and random jumps of the underlying asset price. This is done by enlarging the market with appropriate swaps whose pay-offs depend on higher order sample moments of the asset price process. Using European options and variance swaps, as well as barrier options written on the S&P 500 index, the paper provides clear cut evidence that hedging strategies employing variance and higher order moment swaps considerably improves upon the performance of traditional delta hedging strategies. Inclusion of the third-order moment swap improves upon the performance of variance swap-based strategies to hedge against random jumps. This result is more profound for short-term out-of-the money put options.     

Multivariate continuous-time modeling of wind indexes and hedging of wind risk

With the introduction of the exchange-traded German wind power futures, opportunities for German wind power producers to hedge their volumetric risk are present. We propose two continuous-time multivariate models for wind power utilization at different wind sites, and discuss the properties and estimation procedures for the models. Applying the models to wind index data for wind sites in Germany and the underlying wind index of exchange-traded wind power futures contracts, the estimation results of both models suggest that they capture key statistical features of the data. We show how these models can be used to find optimal hedging strategies using exchange-traded wind power futures for the owner of a portfolio of so-called tailor-made wind power futures. Both in-sample and out-of-sample hedging scenarios are considered, and, in both cases, significant variance reductions are achieved. Additionally, the risk premium of the German wind power futures is analysed, leading to an indication of the risk premium of tailor-made wind power futures.