Does economic policy uncertainty affect cryptocurrency markets? Evidence from Twitter-based uncertainty measures

Using daily data from August 9, 2015, to July 7, 2020, this study examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the returns of four cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple. To this end, two new measures of EPU (Twitter-based economic uncertainty and Twitter-based market uncertainty) are considered. A Granger causality test using the recursive evolving window approach shows a significant causality between the Twitter-based EPU measures and the BTC/USD exchange rate from October 2016 to July 2017. Moreover, a significant causality was noted from the EPU measures to the ETH/USD exchange rate from June 2019 to February 2020 and from the EPU measures to the XRP/USD exchange rate from January 2020 to February 2020. The Twitter-based EPU measures primarily positively affect the returns of the related cryptocurrencies during these periods. These results are robust to different measures of Twitter-based EPU and different econometric techniques. Potential implications, including the COVID-19 era, are also discussed.     

The Headmaster Ritual: The Importance of Management for School Outcomes

We estimate the impact of individual principals on school outcomes by using panel data that allow us to track principals over time. We find that individual principals have a substantive impact on school policies, working conditions, and student outcomes. In particular, students who attend a school that has a one standard deviation better principal improve their achievement by between 0.05 and 0.1 standard deviations. Despite rich background information on principals, it is difficult to characterize successful management, suggesting that innate skills are central. We find that the scope for discretion is larger among voucher schools and in areas with school competition.     

COVID-19, commuting flows,and air quality

Fossil-fuel burning transportation methods significantly contribute to air pollution. During the COVID-19 pandemic, South Korea experienced a 10-20% decline in commuting flows, even without government-mandated stay-at-home orders. This paper quantifies the impact that decreased commuting flows have on PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, CO, and SO₂, using municipality level commuting data. We find that a 1% decrease in commuting flows decreases air pollutants by 0.08-0.17%, after controlling for seasonality and time-varying local production. The effect was higher in regions with high initial pollution, and people recognized air quality improvements. These results emphasize the importance of encouraging cleaner transportation methods after the pandemic.     

Creating a safe haven during the crisis: How organizations can achieve deep compliance with COVID-19 safety measures in the hospitality industry

The COVID-19 health crisis has engendered a set of additional health and safety regulations and procedures (e.g. social distancing) to the hospitality industry. The purpose of this paper is to explore in-depth how organizations can facilitate employees’ deep compliance with these procedures. Employing an instrumental case-study approach, we collected multi-level interview data and archival data in a small-medium sized restaurant in China. The findings reveal that employees’ deep compliance with safety procedures includes a four-stage psychological process, and this process is underpinned by both management safety practices and organizational crisis strategies. As the hospitality industry starts to exit lockdown and ramp up operations, this study offers theoretical and practical insights on how organizations in hospitality can protect the health and safety of their employees and the broader community.     

威客活动水平的区域空间统计分析——从人力资本视角看区域经济发展失衡

探索了威客活动的地域分布特征,并将之与区域经济发展水平相联系,构建了区域经济发展研究的新视角。通过绘制分位地图,探索了威客活动可能存在的地域歧视,从需求和供给的角度分析了威客活动的地域分布情况。利用空间统计分析方法对比了GDP与威客数量的地域分布情况。研究结果表明:威客活动中不存在明显的地域歧视;威客活动的需求和供给分布较为一致;大多数省份的威客数量水平低于其经济发展水平;威客的地域分布不存在明显的集聚现象。整体而言,以威客平台为基础的网上劳动力市场的存在与发展,借助互联网在联系不同地域、消除地域差异上起到了重要作用。     

Effects of hiring former employees of multinationals in the absorptive capacity of local firms

The attraction of foreign direct investment seeks, among other things, to increase the productivity of local companies through knowledge spillovers. However, the empirical evidence in this regard is contradictory. One influential factor is the absorptive capacity of the local companies. This article analyzes the effect of the presence of former employees of multinational corporations as employees of local companies, on the absorptive capacity of said companies. The study was done in Costa Rica, a country known for its successful strategy in the subject matter. The data come from a survey applied to 1167 companies by the Observatorio Costarricense de las Pymes in 2011. It was found that the hiring of former employees of multinational corporations by local companies has a positive effect on the index of absorptive capacity of companies in all productive sectors. Specifically, this hiring of former employees increases the index of absorptive capacity by nine percentage points, with differences by sector and the size of the company.     

Remittances and the human capital of children: New evidence from Kyrgyzstan during revolution and financial crisis, 2005–2009

We analyze the effect of the receipt of remittances on the education and health of children in Kyrgyzstan during a volatile period of their recent history, 2005–2009. The country experienced revolution in 2005 and the global financial crisis beginning in 2008. Both events impact human capital investment, and the changes vary by region of the country. We use fixed effects estimation and fixed effects, instrumental variables estimation to isolate the effects of remittances and other events on human capital. We find that boys aged 14–18 in remittances’ receiving households are less likely to be enrolled in school than other children. We also find that girls in remittances’ receiving households are more likely to be malnourished (thin). Both effects are relatively small. Remittances do not improve the human capital of children left behind. However, we do find an overall positive improvement in school enrollment among young children between 2005 and 2009 but a negative trend in enrollment among older boys and girls. Nutrition improves over time. Regional differences are apparent in these trends in nutrition and education.     

Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: Lessons from the financial crisis

We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed-frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across different models, extending the model specification by adding MA terms, enhancing the estimation method by taking a similarity approach, and adjusting the forecasts to put them back on track using a specific form of intercept correction. Among these methods, adjusting the original nowcasts and forecasts by an amount similar to the nowcast and forecast errors made during the financial crisis and subsequent recovery seems to produce the best results for the US, notwithstanding the different source and characteristics of the financial crisis. In particular, the adjusted growth nowcasts for 2020Q1 get closer to the actual value, and the adjusted forecasts based on alternative indicators become much more similar, all unfortunately indicating a much slower recovery than without adjustment, and very persistent negative effects on trend growth. Similar findings also emerge for forecasts by institutions, for survey forecasts, and for the other G7 countries.     

Tracking Can Be More Equitable Than Mixing

Parents and policy‐makers often wonder whether and how the choice of a tracked or mixed educational system affects the equality of opportunity. I answer this question by analyzing the influence of peers on future educational results. I define an equal opportunity policy as one that maximizes the average lifetime income of the worst‐off type of individuals in society (i.e., students from disadvantaged backgrounds). I find that tracking maximizes average lifetime income if the opportunity cost of college attendance is sufficiently high.