Fiscal Policy,Monetary Policy and the Mechanics of Modern Clearing and Settlement Systems

Thomas Palley, Eric Tymoigne and Randall Wray recently debated neo-Chartalism in this journal. This article argues that the mechanics of modern clearing and settlement systems is important to understanding this debate. In the neo-Chartalist framework taxes and bond issuance function as part of monetary policy; it is an alternative method for draining reserves to obtain the overnight target rate. Abba Lerner’s Chartalist framework is much clearer on public finance, noting that the federal government can use alternative financing methods to pay for expenditures. Palley’s concerns with central bank ‘money financing’ and inflation are unpersuasive. The Old Keynesian ‘budget restraint– high-powered money relation’ offers limited insight into modern clearing and settlement systems. The article concludes that policymakers should embrace Lerner’s advice and view ‘money printing’ as a normal policy instrument to support functional finance.     

How fiscal policy affects housing market dynamics: Evidence from Spain

This paper studies how the announcements of fiscal law changes affect the real estate market, focusing on the case of Spain. An announcement of a future fiscal law change gives the opportunity to buyers to advance or delay purchases to maximize fiscal benefits. In particular, we study announcements and their posterior effects about the mortgage tax laws in 1998, 2010, 2011, and 2013 plus the VAT law in 2012. The paper is based on contextually rich data from 2004 through 2015 for Spain, provided by a real estate agent with a strong presence across the Spanish territory. We use two dependent variables to best capture the changes: time on market of a dwelling and the price discount of the dwelling. Simultaneity bias is avoided by considering that the degree of overpricing and atypicality affects time on market but not the selling price. The identification strategy is improved by considering the type of properties most affected by the changes versus the rest of properties, using a difference-in-difference estimation. We consider two tax policy announcements: income tax credit on dwelling purchases and VAT rate change on the purchases of new dwellings. In the case of the income tax credit, this fiscal policy affects only primary accommodations. In the case of the VAT tax rate, only new houses are affected. We show that credible fiscal policy announcements distort the housing market by temporarily decreasing dwellings’ time on market and their price discounts, to immediately and long-lastingly increase them just after the tax policy expires. There is a negative causal effect of tax policy announcements on the housing market.     

制度变迁、地方政府行为与城乡收入差距 ——来自中国省级面板数据的经验证据

本文采用1997-2009年面板数据的变截距及变系数模型,利用控制地区经济开放程度、产业结构变迁、城市化率等因素,对中国30个省市的制度变迁、地方政府支出决策与城乡收入差距之间的关系进行实证分析。结果显示：就全国而言,制度变迁、地方政府对经济活动的干预和地方政府投资性支出均与城乡收入差距呈正相关,而地方政府保障性支出则与城乡收入差距呈负相关;就地区而言,大部分地区在市场化过程中的制度变迁、地方政府投资性支出扩大了城乡收入差距,而半数以上的地区其政府支出规模及其内部保障性支出对城乡收入差距的缩小则有一定促进作用,但不同地区其影响呈现一定的差异性。其政策含义在于,我国在推进市场化进程的同时还要兼顾公平与效率,加强地方政府对收入不平等的调节作用,完善地方财政支出结构特别是社会保障体系,以此来缩小城乡收入差距。     

财政分权、制度性冲击与房价演进动态

本文认为财政分权水平的提高是促进中国房价上涨的重要制度性因素.首先,我们基于省际面板数据模型获得了这一观点的经验证据,在控制了其他一些因素后,结果显示财政分权度提高能够显著的推高房价.同时,我们还构建了一个包含财政分权和居民房产偏好的动态一般均衡模型,从理论上分析了财政分权作为一种制度性冲击是如何影响房价动态路径的,基于动态结构模型的反事实模拟显示,分权性制度冲击的强度和持久性是房价演进动态的重要决定因素.     

内蒙古财政支出结构的分析及其对经济增长影响的研究

对财政支出结构的研究是当前我国的一个热门课题,它既可以帮助财政支出目标的实现,又可以考察财政支出结构是否促进经济增长。文章首先对财政支出的相关指标测算内蒙古财政支出的规模,其次根据财政支出职能划分内蒙古财政支出结构进行分析,然后应用回归模型分析内蒙古财政支出结构对经济增长的影响,最后根据以上分析的结论,提出优化内蒙古财政支出结构的相关建议。     

中国财政分权与地方基础设施供给的实证分析

在我国,自上而下的政绩考核机制激励着地方追求短期经济增长,导致其在基础设施投资上拥有很高的热情。文章实证分析了该结论,并用模型论证经济增长、城市化和财政分权等因素是导致地方基本建设支出增长的主要原因。     

我国地方政府债务风险及其预警:问题及对策

我国地方政府财政风险有其特殊的历史背景和生成机理,而且有关预警信息取得困难,财政危机的表现模糊,这些问题给有效预警带来困难。不仅如此,现有的预警研究在预警理论和预警方法上也存在诸多问题,本文试图根据我国地方政府财政风险的特殊性以及现有预警存在的问题,提出相应的预警对策。     

对财政收入高速增长的思考——比例、用途与平衡

我国财政收入近年来高速增长,政府在国民收入分配中的比例逐渐加大。这种变化趋势虽然在近期内为相关财税制度变革提供了条件,但某些公共产品供给的相对规模并没有随着财政收入的高速增长而有显著提高。在财政收入高速增长过程中,地方财政能力的改善以及财政支出结构的优化仍然是重要课题。同时,为了应对财政收入增长波动,应该建立并完善相关的预防措施。     

HOW DO FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND FISCAL STIMULI IMPACT ON THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES?

Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty and a reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co‐movement of business cycles across countries. From a policy perspective, our work shows that an inflation targeting regime coupled with simultaneous fiscal consolidations can lead to more business cycle synchronization.     

天津财政教育支出结构分析

对1996年以来天津公共教育支出结构进行了实证分析,指出天津公共教育支出存在着基础教育领域投资力度弱、义务教育阶段教育资金使用不合理、政府间教育支出分担不够合理等三方面结构不合理问题,在此基础上进一步提出相应的调整策略。