Trade tariff,wage gap and public spending

This paper studies the interplay between wage gap and government spending in a small open economy facing a shock in trade policy. We consider a specific factor model with an export sector, which uses skilled labour, and an import-competing sector, which uses unskilled labour. We find the conditions under which there exists an inverse (direct) relation between trade liberalization (protection), which increases (decreases) the skilled-unskilled wage gap, and the level of government expenditure. We also show how either an unbalanced distribution of political bargaining power, or tariff revenue co-financing public spending may break this inverse relation. Moreover, the direct relation between tariff protection and public goods provision can be strenghtened by progressive taxation and weakened by regressive taxation.     

The impact of (un)conventional expansionary monetary policy on income inequality – lessons from Japan

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on income inequality in Japan, using hitherto unexplored data from the Japan Household Panel Survey. Empirical evidence shows that expansionary monetary policy in Japan has contributed to diminishing the gender pay gap through an increase in working time of women relative to men, but also to increasing the education pay gap. These effects may have materialized via the aggregate demand channel and the labour productivity channel. In contrast, expansionary monetary policy has had no significant impact on the development of the age pay gap.     

Staying dry on Spanish wine: The rejection of the 1905 Spanish-Italian trade agreement

After a long debate on wine import tariffs, the Italian Parliament rejected the Spanish-Italian trade agreement on 17 December 1905. This decision left Spain and Italy without a bilateral trade treaty for an entire decade. In the literature, broader political issues and local interests are alternatively indicated as the main drivers of the rejection. Based on a new database which collects economic and political variables (including MPs personal features) and using a probit model, this paper provides a quantitative analysis of the vote. Results show that constituency interests had a role in determining the result of the vote on the trade treaty. Moreover, constituency interests were also important for the “vote switchers”, i.e. those MPs that supported the overall government policy stance in the first round, but opposed the Spanish-Italian trade agreement in the second.     

Global uncertainties and portfolio flow dynamics of the BRICS countries

This paper investigates the dynamics of bond and stock market capital flows to BRICS countries under uncertainties such as global economic policy uncertainty and the US trade policy uncertainty. We use a time-varying Granger causality framework over the January 2008-November 2019 period to analyze the predictive power of uncertainties on capital flows in the form of bond and equity. The results show that the effects are heterogeneous across countries and stronger during the Global Financial Crisis period and post-2018 period while it lost its significance in the subsequent period. The negative influence of uncertainties on capital flows directed to BRICS countries is also evident in the results of non-parametric time-varying panel models. Overall, it is thought that the heterogeneous structure of the causality between uncertainty and portfolio flows into BRICS may present portfolio diversification benefits for global investors.     

Land rights,agricultural productivity,and deforestation

This paper studies the relationship between land tenure for smallholder agriculture and deforestation. We combine high resolution satellite data on deforestation with rich household and commune-level, biannual panel data from Vietnam. We study two margins of tenure security, whether a household has any land title (extensive) and the share of a household’s land held in title (intensive). Using a household-fixed effects model, we find the increases in crop production and land investment associated with holding land title are driven by the intensive margin. We then aggregate the survey data to the commune-level and find evidence that marginal increases in extensive tenure (share of households with any land title) increase deforestation holding constant the average intensive tenure (average share of land held in tenure among those with land title). We find some evidence that increasing the intensive margin of tenure (holding constant the extensive tenure) decreases deforestation. These results present a more nuanced view of the tenure-deforestation relationship than is prevalent in the existing literature.     

汇率、贸易弹性和经常账户

本文在国际收支弹性分析法框架下,讨论汇率变动影响贸易收支状况的临界弹性条件。放弃传统的马歇尔—勒纳条件,采用更符合实际情况的修正BRM条件,并且在实证检验中首次使用了Gamma分布滞后模型来估计相关贸易弹性,为政府通过汇率变动来调节经常账户提供了更精确的参考标准。     

How different are the regional factors of high-tech and low-tech start-ups? Evidence from Japanese manufacturing industries

This paper analyzes regional determinants of the start-up ratio in the Japanese manufacturing sector. A major contribution of this study is the comparison between high-tech and low-tech industries. The empirical results using a sample of 253 industrial districts suggest that business density, weight of the manufacturing sector, and the average business size significantly influence the start-up ratio in both high-tech and low-tech industries. Distinct differences between these industries were found with regard to the effects of human capital, research institutes, and the weight of high-tech industries.

中外滚动轴承工业标准对比分析

文章从标准的发展概况、标准构成、采用国际标准等方面,比较了中国和德国、日本以及美国滚动轴承工业标准的异同,并指出中国轴承工业标准尚需由数量型向质量型转化,由微观操作型向宏观指导型转化,由生产型向贸易型转化,由被动采用型向主动创新型转化。     

构建跨区域农产品营销虚拟物流协作体系——以南北方果蔬农产品为例

针对我国农产品的营销物流实践,表现出的较为粗放性特点,我们提出跨区域虚拟物流协作体系的概念,并搭建农产品营销物流的虚拟运作平台,且寻求存在的理论基础,最终并设计其营销物流运作平台及流程。     

Forecasting the past: the case of US interest rate forecasts

This study evaluates 10-year US government bond yield forecasts and three-month US Treasury bill rate forecasts for the period between October 1989 and December 2004. In total, 136 forecast time series with approximately 13,800 forecast data were scrutinized, making this the most extensive analysis of interest rate forecasts to date. Not one of the forecast time series proved to be unbiased. In the majority of cases, information from the past was not efficiently integrated into the forecasts. The sign accuracy is significantly better than random walk forecasts in only a very few of the forecast time series. The modified Diebold–Mariano test for forecast encompassing reveals that the information content of most of the forecast time series is lower than that of the naïve forecasts, the simple ARIMA models, the implicit forward rates, or average interest rate expectations. The forecasting process is dominated by the present and past market situation.