国民政府时期农本局与现代农业金融

农本局曾作为国民政府调整农业金融的机关,通过辅导成立合作社,辅助设立合作金库,建立农业仓库,初步建立起一套实行农贷的网络,这些都促进了现代农业金融的发展,一定程度上流通了农业金融,打击了农村的高利贷。由于存在一些问题,农本局没有完全实现其调整农业金融的目标,最后农贷业务移交给中国农民银行。     

中国水产品对日本出口的商品结构实证分析

本文收集了近10年中国水产品对日本出口的贸易数据,利用分散度指数、结构变化指数以及区域显示性比较优势指数,对中国水产品出口到日本的商品结构进行实证分析,结果发现：1998～2007年,中国水产品对日出口的分散程度呈现出“先增高,后降低”的趋势;商品结构变化幅度呈现出“低-高-低-高”的变化趋势;中国深加工水产品（0371、0372）在日本市场具有很强的竞争优势;中国对日本出口额较大、竞争优势较强的水产品大多集中在日本进口额相对较小的水产品类别上。     

美元汇率变动对中国经济影响分析

美元汇率变动是影响中国经济发展的一个重要外部原因。由于2005年之前人民币实施的是钉住美元的固定汇率制度,美元贬值加大了人民币升值的压力,使得货币政策陷于两难境地。实证分析表明,美元汇率变动对中国进出口、利用外资、物价水平和就业具有明显的影响。2005年美元汇率升值,中国贸易收支顺差将缩小。美元企稳将促进中国稳定利用外资,并对抑制国内生产资料价格上涨将起到积极的作用,从而有利于我国的宏观经济调控。但今年美元的升值走势将不利于我国就业状况的改善。     

China's agriculture: drivers of change and implications for China and the rest of world

The overall goal of this article is to identify major changes in China's agriculture/food economy and their implications for both China itself and, more importantly, to the rest of world. China has become one of the fastest‐growing economies in the world since late 1970s. GDP grew at about 10% annually in the past 30 years. China's experience shows the importance of both domestic and external policies in achieving sustainable growth. The results from this study provide significant policy implications to many countries that are currently China's major trade partners or those seeking greater economic and trade relations with China. The main conclusions on the implications of China's rapid economic growth are that China's growth will provide more opportunities than challenges to the rest of the world, on average. Overall, the rest of the world will gain from China's economic expansion though this general conclusion may not hold for some countries.     

The growing importance of the former USSR countries in world agricultural markets

The major countries of the former Soviet Union—specifically Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan—are becoming increasingly important in world agricultural markets. The two main developments are that this region has become a large grain exporter, especially of wheat and barley, and Russia a big agricultural importer, especially of meat. These trends should continue for the next decade. However, policies to expand the livestock sector could mitigate these developments, as increased domestic meat production would reduce both meat imports and surplus feed grain for export. Also, further growth in the region's grain exports will require improvement in the infrastructure for storing and transporting grain.     

China’s Agricultural Policy Transition: Impacts of Recent Reforms and Future Scenarios

This article reviews recent developments in China’s agricultural domestic support policy, especially the transition from taxing farmers and agriculture to providing direct subsidies to grain production and purchased inputs. A model‐based quantitative analysis on the effects of these policy changes is presented. Simulation results suggest that recent policy changes have achieved the declared policy goals of increasing grain production and boosting farm income. Much of the increase in grain production and farm income can be attributed to higher per unit return to arable land, land reallocation to grain production and extra agricultural employment triggered by the policy changes. Based on the assumption that China’s public assistance to agriculture and farmers will continue and rise, two hypothetical future scenarios are simulated. Using all the support permitted under WTO de minimis limits with existing instruments, China’s policy will increase grain production, change trade patterns seemingly contrary to China’s comparative advantage, increase rural employment and significantly increase farm income (by more than 12%). If, however, decoupled instruments are applied to raise China’s agricultural domestic support to the same level, China’s agricultural production and trade will remain unchanged, rural employment remain stable, but farm income will be increased by nearly 15%.     

The introduction of Entry Level Stewardship in England: Extension or dilution in agri-environment policy?

Agri-environment schemes were introduced in the mid-1980s. Their primary objectives have developed from initially aiming to hold back intensification towards stimulating environmental enhancement. The introduction of Entry Level Stewardship (ELS) in England represents a third stage in seeking to extend the coverage of schemes across the majority of agricultural land. This aims to influence land use along the whole of the intensive margin. The ELS offers a wide range of options for which farmers are awarded points. Selection of options equivalent to 30 points per ha in lowland areas entitles farmers to a payment of £30 per ha. By September 2007, 4.4 million ha had been entered into the scheme, equivalent to 47% of the agricultural area. From amongst the options on offer, 34% of points were for boundary options, 20% for intensive grass options, 16% for management plans and 13% for options taking arable land out of production. The choice of options varies across the country with a higher proportion of the agricultural area entered in the East. Entry into the scheme is associated with total agricultural area, cereals farming, larger farms, a lower proportion of area in Environmentally Sensitive Area and Countryside Stewardship schemes and grazing livestock numbers. While the ELS has introduced a large number of new entrants into agri-environment schemes, the extent of the environmental impact is uncertain. Given the large number of options available, it is likely that farmers will have chosen options that involve relatively little change and incur limited cost. At the same time, it would be surprising if the environmental gains were of the types most valued within local areas. The ELS approach implies that public goods provided from agricultural land should be paid for irrespective of what would have happened in the absence of the scheme. While this may be a fairer approach, it may also undermine the idea of land stewardship and imply that payments will continue to be required in the long term in order to sustain provision. The ELS does establish a framework within which incentives could be targeted to deliver specific benefits within particular contexts and suggestions are made as to how policy might be developed for this.     

美欧金融危机中CDS泡沫形成的原因与影响以及相关风险管理问题的思考

2007年以来的国际金融危机中,大规模的CDS合约交易起到了推波助澜的作用,放大了实际风险。然而,也不能完全否定CDS产品在促进金融衍生品市场繁荣,尤其是有效对冲风险中的重要作用。目前,国内已出现了引入CDS的相关研究。本文以欧美危机为鉴,就完善COS市场监管,以及国内引入CDS类似的产品后如何把握好金融监管与市场繁荣之间的平衡进行了相关思考,以期及早进行相应的制度设计,实现市场的良性发展。     

我国企业应对反倾销的会计联动机制研究

国外频繁对华发起反倾销指控,我国涉案企业应诉不力的一个重要原因就是应对反倾销会计联动机制的缺失。本文对我国应对反倾销会计联动机制的内涵、目标、构建原则、构成要素、结构、功能和治理主体等进行了分析,以期提高我国应对反倾销的成效。     

Power politics and the expansion of US exports, 1879–1938

In this article, we present quantitative evidence for the first time of the effect of US power politics on the expansion of its export market from the late nineteenth century to the eve of the Second World War. Like other empires, US imperial policy was expressed through annexation, gunboat policies, and asymmetrical trade agreements. We find that US exports to territories that became colonies or protectorates and those involved in other US military interventions grew more than three times faster between 1880–5 and 1934–8 than in the rest of the world. Our most relevant contribution to this discussion relies on a new geographically extensive database with information on bilateral trade flows, market size, trade costs, and variables that capture US political and military power. We first estimate a gravity equation to see the relationship between our power politics variables and US exports. Then, we present causal evidence of the role played by the colonies and protectorates in the expansion of US exports through an event study and the estimation of a generalized difference-in-differences model.