美国ADR对我国诉讼外纠纷解决方式的启示

20世纪60年代以来,美国在"诉讼爆炸"的压力下,通过大力利用、发展ADR,拓宽了高效、公正解决纠纷的新途径,成功缓解了法院压力。当前,我国法院面临着民事案件日益增多的压力,借鉴美国ADR,构建本土化的诉讼外纠纷解决机制,有利于缓解法院日益增长的诉讼案件的压力,维护社会的稳定与和谐。     

基于蓝海战略的统计管理体制改革探析

统计是一个国家的信息中心,然而,我国统计管理体制尚不能完全发挥其应有作用。本文采用蓝海战略工具,以调查问卷获取数据为基础,对统计管理体制现存问题进行分析后提出统计管理体制改革的对策建议,以期提升统计信息的质量。     

Asymmetric multifractal features of the price–volume correlation in China’s gold futures market based on MF-ADCCA

In recent years, fractal theory has become a recognized research direction for explaining various complex phenomena that are difficult to constrain in the conventional efficient market hypothesis for financial markets. Moreover, because the gold futures prices are crucial to the futures market, research on the relationship between quantity and price is important for understanding market fluctuations. Therefore, this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the multifractal features and asymmetry in the price–volume correlation of China’s gold futures market based on the multifractal asymmetric detrended cross-correlation analysis method¹ . Results show that the cross-correlation between market price and volume is asymmetric and multifractal and that multifractal features are stronger when the price increases compared with when it declines. Moreover, the multifractal features vary over time. These findings indicate that the risk of China’s gold futures market will change with the price trend over time.     

刑事案件当庭宣判的变迁

刑事案件当庭宣判制度早在1979年刑事诉讼法立法时就已确立,但它首先被司法决策作为一个命题郑重提出来则是在1996年修法之后,至今二十余年来最高人民法院对待当庭宣判的政策变迁呈现出办案效率导向、司法公开导向和庭审实质化导向三种价值定位与政策形态,并最终形成速裁程序强制适用、简易程序优先适用、普通程序建议适用的整体布局、分层推进的方案。而当庭宣判的地方实践整体上回应了最高人民法院的政策导向,但呈现出差异化极大的两种面孔。一面是小部分典型法院打造了较高的当庭宣判率,另一面是诸多法院当庭宣判难以推进,最终定格为一种以办案效率导向为主的当庭宣判实践模式,主要适用于简单轻微案件,且司法资源配置低和高度固化,并存在较大随机性与异质性,呈现多元分化图景。2018年刑事诉讼法修法将当庭宣判实践从放任自流固化到速裁案件强制当庭宣判的制度格局,可期待当庭宣判率有所提升的实践图景,但要真正激发当庭宣判实践的革命,则还要看普通程序当庭宣判率,以当庭宣判成为常态为标志。而对当庭宣判的价值期待与政策定位应采取过程导向,当庭宣判率的“打造”还得回到打磨一套足够激励当庭宣判成为常态的程序机制上来,让当庭宣判成为实质化庭审的自然状态。     

Combined tail estimation using censored data and expert information

We study tail estimation in Pareto-like settings for datasets with a high percentage of randomly right-censored data, and where some expert information on the tail index is available for the censored observations. This setting arises for instance naturally for liability insurance claims, where actuarial experts build reserves based on the specificity of each open claim, which can be used to improve the estimation based on the already available data points from closed claims. Through an entropy-perturbed likelihood, we derive an explicit estimator and establish a close analogy with Bayesian methods. Embedded in an extreme value approach, asymptotic normality of the estimator is shown, and when the expert is clair-voyant, a simple combination formula can be deduced, bridging the classical statistical approach with the expert information. Following the aforementioned combination formula, a combination of quantile estimators can be naturally defined. In a simulation study, the estimator is shown to often outperform the Hill estimator for censored observations and recent Bayesian solutions, some of which require more information than usually available. Finally we perform a case study on a motor third-party liability insurance claim dataset, where Hill-type and quantile plots incorporate ultimate values into the estimation procedure in an intuitive manner.     

What drives local lending by global banks?

We find that the lending behavior of global banks’ subsidiaries throughout the world is more closely related to local macroeconomic conditions and their financial conditions than to those of their owner-specific counterparts. This inference is drawn from a panel dataset populated with bank-level observations from the Bankscope database. Using this database, we identify ownership structures and incorporate them into a unique methodology that identifies and compares the owner and subsidiary-specific determinants of lending. A distinctive feature of our analysis is that we use multi-dimensional country-level data from the BIS international banking statistics to account for exchange rate fluctuations and cross-border lending.     

应急时期司法政策的现实运用及风险规控

在国家处于应急时期时,最高人民法院单独或联合出台司法政策已成为非常态社会治理的重要方式。应急时期的司法政策具有出台快速性、效力临时性、目的明确性、主体联动性和运行政治性特点,并通过“作为裁判依据”和“作为裁判背景”的方式化解社会矛盾、维护社会稳定。鉴于司法政策本身的定位不清,其对秩序的追求和紧急权行使与基本法治原则相抵牾,以及“成本—收益”理论阐释该时期政策与法律选择的非自主性,应急时期的司法政策在实现法治价值的同时也极易被不当运用,如直接将行政政策转化为司法政策,为达成维稳目标致使司法政策“运动式”运行,政策的“短期化”削弱司法公信力,以及笼统地将司法政策用作裁判依据等。针对可能风险,我们应基于法律与社会的“诉求—回应”关系,厘清特殊时期司法政策与公共政策的区别,结合教义学体系明确司法政策运用的具体要求,借助案例指引作用阐释司法政策蕴含的裁判规则,以及通过法律论证增强援引秩序价值说理的可接受性。     

审判权与审判管理权、审判监督权的关系重塑高欧郭松

合理构建审判权与审判管理权、审判监督权的关系,是审判权运行机制改革的关键问题。欲使这三种权力形成合理关系,需要根据审判权运行存在的问题,在客观评价法院科层化组织结构与法院内部复合化权力构造以及院、庭长职权配置的基础上,从制度层面严格区分法院组织的行政逻辑与司法逻辑,进一步明确审判管理权与审判监督权的权限定位,完善其职权范围与行权程序,并构建审判权反向制约审判管理权与审判监督权的相关机制。唯有如此,才可能构建出合理的审判权与审判管理权、审判监督权的关系。     

Cramér–Von Mises distance estimation for some positive infinitely divisible parametric families with actuarial applications

Cramér–Von Mises (CVM) inference techniques are developed for some positive flexible infinitely divisible parametric families generalizing the compound Poisson family. These larger families appear to be useful for parametric inference for positive data. The methods are based on inverting the characteristic functions. They are numerically implementable whenever the characteristic function has a closed form. In general, likelihood methods based on density functions are more difficult to implement. CVM methods also lead to model testing, with test statistics asymptotically following a chi-square distribution. The methods are for continuous models, but they can also handle models with a discontinuity point at the origin such as the case of compound Poisson models. Simulation studies seem to suggest that CVM estimators are more efficient than moment estimators for the common range of the compound Poisson gamma family. Actuarial applications include estimation of the stop loss premium, and estimation of the present value of cash flows when interest rates are assumed to be driven by a corresponding Lévy process.     

论经济法可诉性的完善——以经济审判庭撤销为视角

完善经济法诉讼制度对实现经济法的价值具有重要意义。但经济审判庭的撤销和传统诉讼制度的不足,使经济法可诉性在司法实践上陷入了盲区。经济法法律规范中亦存在大量经济法不可诉性的情形。基于此,为完善经济法的可诉性,在程序上建立经济特别程序,实体上明确规定经济诉权,建立经济法责任制度。