Utilizing urban form characteristics in urban logistics analysis: a case study in Lisbon,Portugal

Within the realm of urban logistics, Macário (2013) developed a hypothesis, denominated the Logistics Profile (LP) concept that suggests homogeneous groups of urban zones with respect to three dimensions, which could be used to analyze freight movement policy: (1) the social and built environment; (2) characteristics of the goods/products being moved; (3) characteristics of the deliveries at the receiver establishment. The concept was expected to ease the transferability of best practices in city logistics, by analyzing similarities and differences between zones. This research uses a quantitative methodology to apply the LP concept, and assess its potential, using the city of Lisbon as a case study. The analysis is focused on: (a) the extrapolation of freight trip generation per establishment and delivery characteristics from a sample of commercial establishments to the population within the case study, (b) proposing a methodology to test the LPs, (c) testing the existence of proposed LPs. Freight trips have been extrapolated using a Multiple Classification Analysis (MCA) model. Freight delivery characteristics were attributed to establishments from a sample-based probability distribution. LPs were tested using a two-step cluster analysis. Some LPs have been matched with clusters of case-study zones, subject to case study particularities. Profile overlap was not an issue and occurrences were expected. The testing showed that Logistic Profiles have the potential for being used as a departure point for urban freight planning and policy analysis.     

Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies

What is the most appropriate combination of fiscal and monetary policies in economies subject to banking crises and deep recessions? We study this issue using an agent-based model that is able to reproduce a wide array of macro- and micro-empirical regularities. Simulation results suggest that policy mixes associating unconstrained, counter-cyclical fiscal policy and monetary policy targeting employment is required to stabilise the economy. We also show that “discipline-guided” fiscal rules can be self-defeating, as they depress the economy without improving public finances. Finally, we find that the effects of monetary and fiscal policies become sharper as the level of income inequality increases.     

Blocking,attracting, imposing,and aligning: The utility of ASEAN forest and environmental regime policies for strong member states

International institutions, including ‘global regimes’ and ‘regional regimes’, address an increasing number of environmental issues. While in the past much attention was given to global regimes, a plethora of regional institutions and organizations (regional regimes) and their environmental policies have recently gained more momentum in political practice and attention in scholarship. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is one such regime, and is actively developing its own policies relating to (e.g.) forests and the environment. These policies necessarily have to be useful for the regime’s member states; however, we further argue, that within the member states the regime’s policies especially have to be useful for specific member states’ bureaucracies, because it is they who actually develop the policies on behalf of the member states. Further, this paper aims to analyse the utility of ASEAN’s forest and environmental policy for specific member states and their responsible bureaucracies. Our analytical framework builds on regional regime theory, bureaucratic politics, and concepts of actor’s utility and interests. It differentiates the utility of the regional regime policies into several functions: (i) blocking unpleasant international initiatives, (ii) attracting international political or financial support, (iii) imposing rules on other member states, and (iv) aligning the interests of member states against external political opponents. Our results indicate that ASEAN’s environmental and forest policies serve all four functions. For instance, through ASEAN structures, Indonesia is blocking strict CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora) regulation of ramin wood to maintain existing ramin protections and business, and the ASEAN Biodiversity Centre is found to be instrumental in blocking ambitious claims towards biodiversity from international actors. In addition, Malaysia and Singapore have imposed an ASEAN wildfire haze pollution agreement onto other member states in order to protect their directly affected interests in air quality and air traffic. ASEAN is also attracting to its members various international environmental funds in areas including climate change, community-based forestry, and sustainable peatland management. Last, member states under ASEAN actively align their positions in international climate negotiations as well as global forest deliberations to enhance their influence. We conclude that policies developed within regional regimes such as ASEAN are aligned with the interests of stronger member states, and their bureaucracies in particular. It remains unclear, however, how powerful these actors need to be in order to make this customization of regime policies valid for them. The results suggest that not only a potential hegemon, but also second or third powers may have this option. At the same time, member states’ activities do not seem to be conducted by states as unitary actors; instead, issue-specific actions are based on the interests of issue-relevant bureaucracies, which are in charge of representing a given member state in a given field of a regime’s policy.     

Impacts of land-cover change on the water flow regulation ecosystem service: Invasive alien plants,fire and their policy implications

Land and water resource issues typically fall under separate governance systems. For example, agricultural policy regulates land-cover change while water departments regulate water quality. However, land-use changes can directly affect water resources. Water flow regulation is a key service which is affected by changes in land-cover but its dynamics are poorly understood by most policy makers and land management organisations. We simulated and quantified the effects of plant invasions on land-cover, hydrological soil characteristics and catchment responsiveness on flow regulation using a hydrological model. The case study was located in the indigenous fynbos shrublands in South Africa. Fynbos requires fire to regenerate, has moderate biomass, occurs mostly in areas with a potential to erode and is prone to invasion by woody plant species, particularly trees. Invasions can affect flow regulation by changing community structure and function and increasing fuel loads. The greater fuel load increases fire intensity and severity which, in turn, changes the hydrological responses of catchments. Few studies have assessed the effects of invasion on hydrological responses but studies on plantations have recorded significant increases in soil water repellence following fire, resulting in increased overland flow similar to impacts of fires in invaded areas. Simulation of clear-felling of pines and different degrees of water repellency increased both the responsiveness of the catchment to rainfall and extreme rainfall events. The simulated fire effects were consistent with other studies of hydrological responses to fire. Our study indicates that invasions of pines and acacias in the study area could substantially increase the risk of flood damage even from moderate rainfall events, and highlights the importance of maintaining flow regulation capacity. New policy approaches are required which take account of the linkages and interactions between land-use choices, water resources and ecosystem services, and address them when considering governance arrangements.     

Quantifying land-use change impacts on the dynamic evolution of flood vulnerability

Recently, dramatic flood disasters have occurred incrementally in several regions of the world. Land-use change as one of the main affecting factors becomes a key component in flood risk management. This study strives to deal with quantifying how changes in land use to affect the dynamic evolution of flood vulnerability. The floodplains of Wuhan, which are located in the Yangtze River Basin, have been selected as an example. In this paper, we use GIS to gather different historical geometric data as sources of land-use information. By proposing the Simpsons-dominance index and location index to analyze the characteristics of land-use changes, and building a quantitative model to measure flood vulnerability, a series of flood vulnerability maps demonstrate differential flood vulnerability of floodplains of Wuhan in three inundation scenarios and four historical periods. Finally, the non-parametric correlation is used to reveal the interactive effect of land use and flood vulnerability. Based on this study, comprehensive flood disaster management strategies for land-use planning are proposed for government decision-makers to reduce the flood vulnerability of Wuhan in future.     

东莞市产业结构与土地利用结构的相关性研究

经过改革开放后三十多年的发展,东莞市已经成长为典型的劳动密集型的制造业城市。城市在不断地发展,土地资源的有限性与社会经济发展的矛盾日益突出,使得东莞市的产业结构和土地利用结构与改革开放初期时的状态有明显不同。本文通过分析该市2005-2012年间产业结构和土地利用结构的数据及相关性,进一步理清两者之间的关系,并依此提出如何优化东莞市产业结构,提高土地利用效率的建议。     

Economic convergence: Policy implications from a heterogeneous agent model

In this paper we study the effectiveness of different types of cohesion policies with respect to convergence of regions. A two-region agent-based macroeconomic model is used to analyze short-, medium- and long-term effects of policies improving human capital and fostering adoption of technologies in lagging regions. With fully integrated labor markets the human capital policy positively affects the economically stronger region but reduces production in the targeted weaker region. Subsidies for high technology investment in the weaker region have a positive local output effect and a negative effect on the neighboring region, thereby fostering convergence. When labor markets are not integrated both policies support convergence.     

Enticing the Stork: Can we Evaluate Pro‐Natal Policies Before Having Children?

Aside from immigration, the only meaningful demographic lever available to policymakers attempting to moderate the rate of ageing is the birth rate. This article departs from previous analyses of pro‐natal policies by studying determinants of pro‐natal options ex ante, which represents an advantage for policymakers looking to craft policies with prior knowledge of whether or not a demographic policy will have a significant effect. Our multinomial regression model for a US sample involving college students shows that the preferred choice of pro‐natal incentive is dependent on gender, economic class, number of planned children and migrant status. We find that females are more likely than males to choose any pro‐natal incentive over no incentive. The highest odds for increasing planned number of children are for maternity leave and parental leave options. Respondents associating themselves with the poorest economic class are more likely to choose daycare or government grant as pro‐natal options.     

Looking into the abyss? Brazil at the mid-2010s

In 2015, the Brazilian economy was afflicted by a lethal combination of a falling level of activity and accelerating inflation. Expectations for 2016 are equally or even more adverse, since the effects of rising unemployment emerge only after a lag. The domestic debate has opposed analysts who believe the crisis is due exclusively to past policy mistakes to analysts who believe that all was well until the government decided to implement austerity policies in 2015. A closer examination of the evidence shows that in fact both reasons contributed to causing the crisis, but it also suggests that its depth has a more proximate cause in the political collapse of the federal government in 2015, which led Brazilian society to an impasse for which a solution is not yet in view.     

The risk in using financial reports in the study of airline business models

A review of published articles has shown that many researchers use financial reports as the main source of information in regard to airline business models. A study of accounting policies and other external information, however, has highlighted the differences in assumptions as to useful lives and the residual values of aircraft, which are the principal assets of airlines. While the considerable, unexplained differences in the accounting policies of enterprises with similar business models indicate there may be risk in using this data, the risk can be eliminated by making appropriate adjustments in the financial statements.