中国能耗增长的阶段性特征:基于LMDI模型的实证研究

本文运用与SDA法相结合的LMDI分解模型,根据能耗增长特点分四个阶段探讨了包含能源强度、中间投入结构变动的技术效应和包含消费、投资、出口变动的最终需求效应对中国能源消耗增长的时段驱动模式。结果表明:(1)1997-2010年间,各阶段"三驾马车"引领的最终需求效应不单是规模庞大,也应相对稳定,能耗增长的异常波动主要取决于技术效应;(2)能源强度效应一直起着节能降耗的积极作用,而中间投入结构自2002年后向高耗能依存特征转变,成为能耗增长的推动因素;(3)2006年开始实施的能源强度政策有效改变了能耗增长轨迹,而国际金融危机的突然爆发扭曲了政府政策执行的初衷、方式和效率。     

基于生命周期理论对食品安全危机下的企业危机管理研究——以三聚氰胺为例

近年来,一系列食品安全事件频发,给企业的危机管理带来了极大的挑战。以往的企业危机管理中多针对危机影响的不同程度通过良好的声誉,及时回应和一定的社会责任处理危机,使损失降到最低。本文以三聚氰胺事件为倒,利用生命周期理论,将危机发展分成危机酝酿期,危机爆发期,危机扩散期,危机处理期,处理结果与后遣症期,通过三家主要企业对不同生命周期的危机发展的应对方式进行研究,进而提出危机管理的相关建议。     

文化差异对消费者奢侈品购买行为的影响——以中国和英国市场为例

越来越多的企业开始参与国际化进程。而在这其中,企业为了更成功地实施全球营销策略,文化是其中一个不容忽视的关键因素。顾客的购买动机和消费行为都会因为文化环境的不同而各异。本文意在研究跨文化差异对中英消费者奢侈品消费行为的影响——中国以集体主义文化为代表,英国以个人主义文化为代表。英国近年来奢侈品消费市场正迅猛增加而中国更是成为世界最大奢侈品消费国。在前人研究的基础上,本文将着重研究文化差异对奢侈品消费行为的影响。通过比较分析,希望本文的研究能够为营销者们在一个文化多元的全球市场中提供一些建议和参考。     

Wealth and the capitalist spirit

The wealth distribution in the U.S. is more unequal than either the income or earnings distribution, a fact current models of saving behavior have difficulty explaining. Using Max Weber’s [Weber, M. (1905). The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism. Charles Scribners’ and Sons (1958 translated edition)] idea that individuals may have a ‘capitalist spirit’, I construct and simulate a model where individuals accumulate wealth for its own sake rather than as deferred consumption. Including capitalist spirit preferences in a simple life cycle model, with no other modifications, generates a skewness of wealth consistent with that observed in the U.S. economy. Furthermore, capitalist spirit preferences provide a way to generate decreasing risk aversion with increases in wealth without resorting to idiosyncratic rates of time preference.     

Lifestyle entrepreneurs and their identity construction: A study of the tourism industry

The present study takes issue with the uniform conceptualization of lifestyle entrepreneurs in previous research by drawing on identity theory and life-story interviews with lifestyle entrepreneurs in Norway. This article aims to show how lifestyle entrepreneurs create their entrepreneurial identity and how this identity informs both their entrepreneurial actions in different ways and how they manage the enterprise. On the basis of a narrative understanding of identity this article differentiates between two dimensions of identity construction: (1) socially and culturally embedded versus independent, and (2) flexible versus stable. The main contribution of this study is that embedded or independent and also flexible or stable identity constructions dominate the identity-construction process for individual lifestyle entrepreneurs. On the basis of the latter this article reports four narrative types of lifestyle-entrepreneur identity construction: (1) the modern, (2) the loyal, (3) the freedom-seeking, (4) and the post-modern lifestyle entrepreneur.     

V-Matrix: A wave theory of value creation for big data

This paper examines the “V-Matrix” and provides a wave theory life cycle model of organizations’ adoption of big data. The V-Matrix is based on the big data five “V’s”: Volume, Velocity, Variety, Veracity, and Value and captures and enumerates the different potential states that an organization can go through as part of its adoption and evolution towards big data. We extend the V-Matrix to a state space approach in order to provide a characterization of the adoption of big data technologies in an organization. We develop and use a wave theory of implementation to accommodate a firm’s movement through the V-Matrix. Accordingly, the V-Matrix provides a life cycle model of organizational use of the different aspects of big data. In addition, the model can help organizations’ plan for decision-making use of big data as they anticipate movement from one state to another, as they add big data capabilities. As part of this analysis, the paper examines some of the issues that occur in the different states, including synergies and other issues associated with co-occurrence of different V’s with each other. Finally, this paper integrates the V-Matrix with other data analytic life cycles and examines some of the implications of those models.     

Converting retirement benefit into a life care annuity with graded benefits*

This paper deals with life care annuities, i.e. bundled products comprising a life annuity and long-term care insurance. It aims to assess the cost of converting retirement benefit into a life care annuity with graded benefits using a pre-existing public pay-as-you-go pension scheme. With this objective in mind, we present an actuarial method based on array calculus for valuing this type of life care annuity. The health dynamics of the annuitant rely on a reversible illness-death multistate framework. The paper contains a numerical example in which mortality and disability assumptions are based on data from the USA and Australia, although this should be viewed simply as an illustration. In addition, in order to check the coherence of these data, we compute life expectancy for both healthy and dependent persons, and then for dependent persons in each of the states of dependence. The effect of ruling out the recovery assumption on the annuity’s cost is also assessed. The analysis provides valuable insights into how much it would cost to introduce these annuities and enables us to make some policy recommendations to help ensure that this combined pension scheme has a good actuarial design.     

民族自治地区三公经费公开问题研究

针对民族自治地区这一特殊行政区域,指出“三公经费”公开目前存在公开意识不足、公开内容简单、真实性偏低、公开渠道受限及反馈性不足等问题。提出了应从思想意识上深入开展群众性教育、规范三公经费公开内容,严格要求随表附上说明、严格监督、建设多渠道公开平台并建立交流反馈机制等完善思路。     

Mortality Among the Elderly in Sweden 1988–1997

By replacing the exponential growth in a Makeham function with a straight line at very high ages, graduated mortality rates gives an acceptable adherence to observed data.     

The Genetics of Breast and Ovarian Cancer III: A new model of family history with insurance applications

Insurers’ access to genetic test results is often restricted and the only genetic information that might be collected during underwriting in some countries is family history. Previous studies have included family history in a simple way but only for diseases which have no cause other than gene mutations, because then the event ‘affected parent’ contributes all possible information short of a genetic test result. We construct a model of breast cancer (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC) — common diseases with rare genetic variants — in which the development of a family history is represented explicitly as a transition between states, hence as part of the applicant's own life history. This allows the impact of a moratorium to be modelled. We then apply this family history model to life insurance in a semi-Markov framework and to critical illness (CI) insurance in a Markov framework to: (a) estimate premium ratings depending on genotype or family history; and (b) model the potential cost of adverse selection.