寿险公司业务增长方式选择：基于企业生命周期理论

本文用代表营销能力变化的首年保费增速作为衡量寿险公司生命周期的变量,证明了对于寿险公司来说,趸缴和期缴两种业务增长方式的相对优势随企业生命周期变化而转变。本文认为国内保险市场未来发展空间较广阔,寿险公司应当从本公司的实际情况出发,同等重视期缴和趸缴两种保费增长方式,按照市场需求开展业务,并积极探索营销管理体制和营销方式创新,不断提升营销能力以延续或重启企业生命周期。     

基于K-means与技术生命周期的技术预见方法研究 ——以水体净化技术为例

预见水体净化技术发展趋势有助于实现“美丽中国”建设目标。已有技术预见方法缺乏定量客观依据,相关评判指标也不够全面。从Innography数据库检索2008-2019年发布的3552个污水处理技术专利,运用多维标度分析和K均值聚类法,基于专利静态指标分析专利技术发展潜力,采用技术生命周期分析法从动态视角判断每类技术的发展前景。研究发现：①污水与污染物双重回收可持续性技术在多个静态评价指标方面均优于其它技术,且处于从引入期到发展期的过渡阶段,具有较大的发展空间;②以去除特定污染物为目标的功能单一技术已被淘汰,市场开始应用污水处理原理不同的多种技术联合处理方式。据此,提出企业应选择污染物回收率高、二次污染物排放少、整体“净效益”为正的污水处理技术,并采取新旧技术联合处理方式降低企业采用新技术的转换成本。     

浅谈保单选择权的方式及其比较

保单是一项财产,其所有权人即保单所有人可以行使保单规定的各项权利。其中不可忽略的一项重要权利就是保单选择权,在保户急需用资金或者无能力再续交保费的时候,就可以灵活利用保单选择权,以使损失降到最低点。本文首先从理论和实际应用两方面对保单选择权进行了定义和阐述,然后详细论述了五种保单选择权的概念、使用情况和优缺点等,最后把五种选择权进行了比较分析和总结。     

碳足迹概念、特征、内容框架与标准规范

碳足迹作为温室气体排放测度指标,其重要性愈显突出,引起了诸多学者与组织机构关注。通过归纳分析学者与组织机构相关研究,明晰碳足迹定义。以生命周期评价为切入点,将其特征归纳为目的性、完整性、一致性、透明性、准确性和可操作性。根据学者与组织机构的研究将其内容框架梳理为11点,并与生命周期评价4个阶段形成对应关系。将出台的碳足迹标准规范归纳为地域、企业和产品3大类,并对各类标准规范的主要内容进行比较分析。最后,对后续研究重点进行了展望。     

宣告死亡与人寿保险的相关问题研究

人寿保险,是以被保险人的寿命作为保险标的,以被保险人的生存或死亡作为保险事故(即给付保险金的条件)的一种人身保险。因而,界定被保险人死亡就成为保险合同履行的关键。在法律意义上,人的死亡可以界分为自然死亡和宣告死亡。自然死亡,是指人的身体达到医学上的死亡标准的一种状态,即真实的、当然的死亡;宣告死亡,是法律上拟制或推定的死亡。被保险人自然死亡的人寿保险问题比较明确,而被保险人的宣告死亡问题,由于涉及宣告死亡的法律效力、法定条件和法定程序等问题,常会产生保险法律纠纷。综观我国保险法律法规相关规定,对被保险人宣告死亡情形的规定还暂付阙如,且保险业实践亦未形成行业惯例,故有必要成文对该问题进行阐释。     

挣脱现代生活的羁绊——《弗朗西斯·麦康伯短促的幸福生活》中成长的硬汉形象分析

《弗朗西斯·麦康伯短促的幸福生活》是海明威一篇独特的小说,精心刻画了一位挣脱现代生活的种种羁绊而成长起来的硬汉形象。前期的麦康伯有钱却懦弱,显露出性格上的胆怯与人格上的卑劣,展现了战后"迷惘"时期表面的浮华和喧嚣,金钱的腐蚀与欲望的诱惑构筑起生存的陷阱,让人失去了尊严与自由。转变后的麦康伯勇敢而独立,认识到只有那些直面命运的悲剧而保持优雅风度的个体才能洞察到生命的本质与价值,成为现代生活中真正的英雄。     

U.S. Labor Market Dynamics Revisited

The picture of U.S. labor market dynamics is opaque. This paper aims at its clarification by (i) listing data facts that can be agreed upon; these indicate that there is considerable cyclicality and volatility of both accessions to and separations from employment and hence both are important for the understanding of the business cycle; (ii) presenting the business‐cycle facts of key series; (iii) pointing to specific gaps in the data picture, showing that the definite characterization of labor market dynamics depends upon the closing of these data gaps.     

Hot Money Flows,Cycles in Primary Commodity Prices,and Financial Control in Developing Countries

Because the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is at the center of the world dollar standard, it has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except during international crises, the Fed focuses on domestic American economic indicators and generally ignores collateral damage from its monetary policies on the rest of the world. Currently, ultra-low interest rates on short-term dollar assets ignite waves of hot money into Emerging Markets (EM) with convertible currencies. When each EM central bank intervenes to prevent its individual currency from appreciating, collectively they lose monetary control, inflate, and cause an upsurge in primary commodity prices internationally. These bubbles burst when some accident at the center, such as a banking crisis, causes a return of the hot money to the United States (and to other industrial countries) as commercial banks stop lending to foreign exchange speculators. World prices of primary products then collapse. African countries with exchange controls and less convertible currencies are not so attractive to currency speculators. Thus, they are less vulnerable than EM to the ebb and flow of hot money. However, African countries are more vulnerable to cycles in primary commodity prices because food is a greater proportion of their consumption, and—being less industrialized—they are more vulnerable to fluctuations in prices of their commodity exports. Supply-side shocks, such as a crop failure anywhere in the world, can affect the price of an individual commodity. But joint fluctuations in the prices of all primary products—minerals, energy, cereals, and so on—reflect monetary conditions in the world economy as determined by the ebb and flow of hot money from the United States, and increasingly from other industrial countries with near-zero interest rates.     

Indeterminacy in a small open economy with endogenous labor supply

Summary. We establish conditions under which indeterminacy can occur in a small open economy business cycle model with endogenous labor supply. Indeterminacy requires small externalities in technologies with social constant returns to scale, independently of the intertemporal elasticities in both consumption and labor. Received: December 12, 2001; revised version: May 17, 2002 RID="*" ID="*"The paper has benefited from discussions with Jess Benhabib and Mark Weder, as well as from the comments of an anonymous referee. Correspondence to: Q. Meng     

草根组织发育与农民幸福感

文章使用2012-2017年中国22个省325个村庄的4863个农户的混合截面数据探究了村庄中草根组织发育情况对农村居民幸福感的影响，为社会组织发展情况和幸福感之间关系的讨论增添了新证据。研究发现：村庄草根组织发育程度对农村居民的幸福感具有显著正向影响，即村庄中的草根组织数量越多，其居民幸福感越高；进一步使用生活满意度法（Life Satisfaction Approach，LSA）对草根组织的货币价值进行估计发现，村庄中草根组织数量每增加1个百分点带来的幸福感增加相当于家庭人均总收入增加0.667个百分点带来的幸福感增加。研究结论表明，发展乡村草根组织是提升农村居民幸福感的一个有效途径。