The consumption–investment decision of a prospect theory household: A two-period model

This study extends the literature on portfolio choice under prospect theory preferences by introducing a two-period life cycle model, where the sufficiently loss averse household decides on optimal consumption and investment in a portfolio with one risk-free and one risky asset. The optimal solution depends primarily on whether the household’s present value of the consumption reference levels is below, equal to, or above the present value of its endowment income. Reference levels below the endowment income are associated with the self-enhancement motive. In this case, the household avoids relative losses in consumption in any present or future state of nature (good or bad). As a result the degree of loss aversion does not directly affect optimal consumption and risk taking activity. Reference levels equal to the endowment income are associated with the belonging motive. An example would be a household comparing to others that belong to the same social class. In this case the household’s optimal consumption is the reference consumption and the household will not invest in the risky asset. Finally, reference levels above the endowment income are associated with the self-improvement motive (or high aspirations). For such high reference levels, households cannot avoid experiencing a relative loss in consumption, either now or in the future. As a result, loss aversion directly affects consumption and risky investment.     

Free-play impact by customer segment

Little is known about the effectiveness of casino free-play campaigns, despite hundreds of millions of dollars in annual redemptions. These costly play incentives are awarded to individual players, based largely on management’s evaluation of their historical play. Extant campaign-level research suggests these incentives may not be effective in driving spend per visit, but there has been no attempt to examine efficacy across player tiers (e.g., light, medium, and heavy users). Analysis of 365 days of performance data from a Las Vegas Strip casino produced varied results across tiers, but all tier-level findings indicated a failure to recover the face value of the free-play incentives. While no support was garnered for the house money effect, the results were consistent with the notion of loss aversion. The methodological approach outlined herein provides the means to critically evaluate free-play offers at the tier level, fast-tracking campaign optimization via more targeted revisions.     

Promotion and Prevention Contracts in Industry Level Firm to Firm Dyad

ABSTRACT

Purpose

This article aims to introduce and distinguish two features of contract design – prevention and promotion contracts – and compares their effects on opportunism within the distributor–supplier relationship. It also examines the moderating role of ex post contract enforcement strategies.     

Impacts of land-cover change on the water flow regulation ecosystem service: Invasive alien plants,fire and their policy implications

Land and water resource issues typically fall under separate governance systems. For example, agricultural policy regulates land-cover change while water departments regulate water quality. However, land-use changes can directly affect water resources. Water flow regulation is a key service which is affected by changes in land-cover but its dynamics are poorly understood by most policy makers and land management organisations. We simulated and quantified the effects of plant invasions on land-cover, hydrological soil characteristics and catchment responsiveness on flow regulation using a hydrological model. The case study was located in the indigenous fynbos shrublands in South Africa. Fynbos requires fire to regenerate, has moderate biomass, occurs mostly in areas with a potential to erode and is prone to invasion by woody plant species, particularly trees. Invasions can affect flow regulation by changing community structure and function and increasing fuel loads. The greater fuel load increases fire intensity and severity which, in turn, changes the hydrological responses of catchments. Few studies have assessed the effects of invasion on hydrological responses but studies on plantations have recorded significant increases in soil water repellence following fire, resulting in increased overland flow similar to impacts of fires in invaded areas. Simulation of clear-felling of pines and different degrees of water repellency increased both the responsiveness of the catchment to rainfall and extreme rainfall events. The simulated fire effects were consistent with other studies of hydrological responses to fire. Our study indicates that invasions of pines and acacias in the study area could substantially increase the risk of flood damage even from moderate rainfall events, and highlights the importance of maintaining flow regulation capacity. New policy approaches are required which take account of the linkages and interactions between land-use choices, water resources and ecosystem services, and address them when considering governance arrangements.     

场外衍生交易主协议提前终止金额计算问题研究

本文以ISDA主协议中的提前终止金额计算条款为主要分析对象,结合2008年发生的雷曼系公司破产事件及其他典型案例,论证了1992年版ISDA协议项下市场报价法(国内银行所签ISDA协议基本都约定以该方法计算提前终止金额)和损失法存在的重大缺陷,以及向2002年版ISDA协议项下终止款项法过渡的必然性,并对国内银行今后应如何处理ISDA协议和NAFMII协议项下的提前终止金额计算问题提出了政策建议。     

New standard regulations regarding allocation to the safety reserve in Sweden

Abstract

This paper describes a statistical investigation of observed loss ratios and run-offs for a number of Swedish insurance companies within different lines of business. The main aim of the investigation was to revise existing upper limits for allocation to the so-called safety reserve, which is an untaxed contingency reserve. The effort was successful in that new rules were established by the Swedish Supervisory Authority in accordance with the results of the investigation. This paper also contains an exposition of the general principles underlying the Swedish safety reserve.     

The effect of natural and built environmental characteristics on pedestrian-vehicle crash severity in Ghana

Despite the benefits of walking as a means of travelling, walking can be quite hazardous. Pedestrian-vehicle crashes remain a major concern in Ghana as they account for the highest percentage of fatalities. The objective of this study is to determine the effect of both natural and built environmental features on pedestrian-vehicle crash severity in Ghana. The study is based on an extensive pedestrian-vehicle crash dataset extracted from the National Road Traffic Accident Database at the Building and Road Research Institute (BRRI) of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Ghana. Using a multinomial logit modelling framework, possible determinants of pedestrian-vehicle crash severity were identified. The study found that fatal crashes are likely to occur during unclear weather conditions, on weekends, at night time where there are no lights, on curved and inclined roads, on untarred roads, at mid-blocks and on wider roads. The developed model and its interpretations will make important contributions to road crash analysis and prevention in Ghana with the possibility of extension to other developing countries. These contributing factors could inform policy makers on road design and operational improvements.     

山区超短波无线电通信链路的设计

叙述了山区超短波无线电通信电路设计的有关技术问题,给出了山峰绕射模式的传输损耗计算方法、绕射位置判断的方法及计算程序流程图,最后通过实例说明此方法的计算精度。     

Dyadic Exploration of the Relationship of Leisure Satisfaction,Leisure Time,and Gender to Relationship Satisfaction

The stress suppressing model proposes that sufficient resources reduce stress. The stress exposure model suggests that certain factors expose individuals to more stress. The current study tested these two models by assessing the within-person lagging effect of leisure time on perceived severity of daily stressors. Analyzing eight-day diary data (N=2,022), we found that having more leisure time than usual on a day reduced perceived severity of daily stressors the next day and that the decrease in severity became larger with further increase in leisure time. Additionally, the effect is much stronger among busy individuals who usually had little leisure time. The findings demonstrated an accelerated suppressing effect that differed between-person, and the lagging effect affords stronger implication for causality than correlational analysis.     

汇市干预的理论与实证分析——来自日本的经验

本文以颇具代表性的日本货币当局外汇干预的模式为参照系,对当今世界资金规模最大、金融领域最前沿的外汇市场从理论和实践的角度进行论证,旨在为未来我国人民币国际化后所必将产生的外汇干预等相关问题提供具有实际意义的建议与理念。