A monotonically converging algorithm for the severity of ruin in a discrete semi-markov risk model

This paper deals with the severity of ruin in a discrete semi-Markov risk model. It is shown that the work of Reinhard and Snoussi (Stochastic Models, 18) can be extended to cover the case where the premium is an integer value and no restriction on the annual result is imposed. In particular, it is shown that the severity of ruin without initial surplus is solution of a system of equations. It can be obtained by a monotonically converging algorithm when the claims are bounded.     

Effect of driver,roadway, collision,and vehicle characteristics on crash severity: a conditional logistic regression approach

The aim of the study is to examine the factors that appear to have a higher potential for serious injury or death of drivers in traffic accidents in Turkey, such as collision type, roadway surface, vehicle speed, alcohol/drug use, and restraint use. Driver crash severity is the dependent variable of this study with two categories, fatal and non-fatal. Due to the binary nature of the dependent variable, a conditional logistic regression analysis was found suitable. Of the 16 independent variables obtained from Turkish police accident reports, 11 variables were found most significantly associated with driver crash severity. They are age, education level, restraint use, roadway condition, roadway type, time of day, collision location, collision type, number and direction of vehicles, vehicle speed, and alcohol/drug use. This study found that belted drivers aged 18–25 years involving two vehicles travelling in the same direction, in an urban area, during the daytime, and on an avenue or a street have better chances of survival in traffic accidents.     

Spam mails impede economic growth

We estimate labor losses caused by spam mails and input these estimated values into a production function, while also estimating damage to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Japan. As a result, we have found that spam mails decreased the Japanese GDP by about 500 billion yen in 2004. This marginal negative effect of spam mail to the GDP increased with the progress of broadband in 2000. Moreover, from the result of a social simulation conducted by the authors, the amount of damage is projected to reach 1% of the Japanese GDP by 2010, unless adequate countermeasures are taken against spam mails. This projection provides a statistical fundamental to several theoretical analyses of spam mails.     

Daily income target effects: Evidence from a large sample of professional commodities traders

We provide evidence of rational reference-dependent preferences in the proprietary trading of professional traders. We find increased trading effort and risk taking by traders following morning losses. Further analysis provides no evidence of a deterioration in trading performance subsequent to losses, as neither risk-adjusted performance nor trade execution appear to be negatively affected by prior losses. The evidence supports the existence of rational reference-dependent preferences in the form of trader daily income targets: these professional traders exhibit increased work effort subsequent to abnormal morning losses. The evidence is inconsistent with the alternative explanation of costly loss aversion.     

贵州零售业基层员工流失及其对策研究

通过设计调查问卷、实地访谈等方法收集了贵州零售业员工工作生活现状,并从降低员工流失率的重要性,剖析员工流失的原因进行深入分析,有针对性的提出降低贵州零售业员工流失的对策。     

对国际卡特尔的有效惩罚额度研究

对国际卡特尔行为实施有效威慑的一个关键问题是如何确立惩罚额度。本文认为，无论是以美国为代表的3倍损失赔偿，还是以欧盟为代表的单倍损失赔偿，都不是合理的惩罚标准。对国际卡特尔的合理的惩罚额度应使卡特尔成员承担其非法行为所带来的全部社会成本，包括国际卡特尔的超高定价、社会净损失、调查诉讼成本以及监禁成本。     

Asset pricing with loss aversion

The use of standard preferences for asset pricing has not been very successful in matching asset price characteristics, such as the risk-free interest rate, equity premium and the Sharpe ratio, to time series data. Behavioral finance has recently proposed more realistic preferences such as those with loss aversion. Research is starting to explore the implications of behaviorally founded preferences for asset price characteristics. Encouraged by some studies of Benartzi and Thaler [1995. Myopic loss aversion and the equity premium puzzle. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (1), 73–92] and Barberis et al. [2001. Prospect theory and asset prices. Quarterly Journal of Economics CXVI (1), 1–53] we study asset pricing with loss aversion in a production economy. Here, we employ a stochastic growth model and use a stochastic version of a dynamic programming method with an adaptive grid scheme to compute the above mentioned asset price characteristics of a model with loss aversion in preferences. As our results show using loss aversion we get considerably better results than one usually obtains from pure consumption-based asset pricing models including the habit formation variant.     

A note on forecasting the prices of gold and silver: Asymmetric loss and forecast rationality

Given that the prices of gold and silver have witnessed large and substantial swings in recent years, policymakers and investors need readily available and reliable forecasts of the prices of these two precious metals. Survey data of forecasts of the prices of gold and silver provide a particularly rich data environment for policymakers and investors to study developments in the markets for gold and silver. Our research helps to develop a deeper understanding of the properties of survey data of the prices of gold and silver. We study the shape of forecasters’ loss function and the rationality of their forecasts. Assuming an asymmetric loss function weakens evidence against forecast rationality, but results depend on the empirical model being studied.     

雇员流失成本分析

在当今市场经济为主导的社会中,人员的流动是相当活跃的。这种流动既有人员的流进也有人员的流出。而人员的流出,它对组织的影响是难于预料的。从组织的角度来看,就意味着在雇员身上所进行的人力资本投资和这种投资所带来的预期收益的丧失。     

食品安全问题的治理投入——基于社会成本视角

将食品安全问题进行最优地分析或是在既定社会成本的条件下,最大化其治理结果；或者在侵害结果既定条件下,减少社会成本的投入.食品安全问题的治理成本与治理缺口之间是替代关系,过高的治理成本和过大的治理缺口都不可取,需要达到一个平衡的最优组合来治理食品安全问题.在分析模型中加入损失,即由于食品安全问题导致的受害人遭受到的财产性损失和非财产性损失,治理成本与损失之和形成社会成本.最优治理确定性点应为社会成本最低点.