Impact of youth injuries on the uninsured farm family's economic viability

The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of youth injuries on the uninsured farm family's economic viability. Using farm prototypes, we compared farm profits with costs of farm youth injuries. We built profit models for two types of farms, dairy and soybean farms. Then we estimated the cost impact of farm youth injuries of different levels of severity on a farm family with no health insurance. A severe child injury that requires at least 10 days of hospitalisation would cost almost equal to the operating profit of the average dairy farm with no health insurance and would turn the operating profit of the average soybean farm into a severe loss of $99,499. Prevention of child agricultural injuries would significantly improve the financial situation for farm families that lack health insurance.     

A preference foundation for constant loss aversion

Following prospect theory and in particular the concept of loss aversion, introduced by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), we consider decision making under risk in which the decision maker’s preferences depend on a reference outcome. An outcome below this reference outcome is regarded as resulting from a loss: a loss decreases the decision maker’s basic utility more than a comparable gain increases this utility. An elegant and simple way to model this phenomenon was proposed by Shalev (2002): the utility of an outcome below the reference outcome is obtained from the basic utility by subtracting a multiple of the loss in basic utility: this multiple, the loss aversion coefficient, is constant across different reference outcomes. We provide a preference foundation for this loss aversion model.     

The influence of guarantees,active requests to voice and failure severity on customer complaint behavior

Anecdotal evidence suggests that service guarantees and requests by service workers to complain encourage customers to voice following failure, while holding negative word of mouth and exit at bay. However, empirical support for these tactics is limited. To address this deficiency, we conducted an experiment examining the influence of these devices on customer complaint behavior (CCB) across restaurant failures of varying severity. Findings suggest that offering a guarantee, regardless of it being unconditional or combined, encourages voice. Failure severity had the strongest influence on CCB, and it interacted with both active request and guarantee type in influencing exit. Theoretical and managerial implications of the findings are discussed.     

Impact of metal silos on households’ maize storage,storage losses and food security: An application of a propensity score matching

Maize is the most important food staple in Eastern and Southern Africa, with a highly seasonal production but relatively constant consumption over the year. Farmers have to store maize to bridge seasons, for food security and to protect against price fluctuations. However, the traditional storage methods do not protect grain well, resulting in large postharvest losses. Hermetically sealed metal silos kill storage pests by oxygen deprivation without pesticides. Popular in Central America, they are now being promoted in Africa, but their impact here has not yet been studied. This study used propensity score matching to evaluate the impact of metal silos on duration of maize storage, loss abatement, cost of storage, and household food security. Metal silo adopters (N = 116) were matched with non-adopting farmers from a representative sample of 1340 households covering the major maize-growing zones in Kenya. The major effect of the metal silos was an almost complete elimination of losses due to insect pests, saving farmers an average of 150–200 kg of grain, worth KSh9750 (US$130). Metal silo adopters also spent about KSh340 less on storage insecticides. Adopters were able to store their maize for 1.8–2.4 months longer, and to sell their surplus after five months at good prices, instead of having to sell right after the harvest. The period of inadequate food provision among adopters was reduced by more than one month. We conclude that metal silos are effective in reducing grain losses due to maize-storage insects, and that they have a large impact on the welfare and food security of farm households. The initial cost of metal silos is high (KSh20,000/1.8 ton) and therefore policies to increase access to credit, to reduce the cost of sheet metal, and to promote collective action can improve their uptake by smallholder farmers.     

新巴塞尔资本协议与商业银行操作风险管理

操作风险正日益成为全球银行业风险管理的研究焦点。新巴塞尔协议将操作风险纳入风险管理框架，为其设定新的资本要求。目前我国的商业银行缺乏风险意识，尤其是在操作风险方面基本没有什么量化操作风险的科学方法，不能正确反映所承受的风险，操作风险的管理水平亟待提高。本文首先对操作风险进行界定，分析其主要特点，之后从国际和国内两方面对操作风险现状进行考察，阐述了新巴塞尔协议中操作风险的计量方法并对其进行评述，最后介绍了操作风险管理流程，并对我国商业银行操作风险管理的策略选择提出建议。     

引进外资的得与失问题研究

在具体分析引进外资的积极作用和存在问题、弊病的基础上,对如何提高引进外资的质量和效益、实现共赢;防止跨国公司垄断和控制我国经济命脉、防止＂洋腐败＂泛滥、防止跨国公司违规污染环境;我国金融机构和企业要吸取广国投破产倒闭的教训,必须要十分审慎有效地利用外资、严控我国优质企业到境外上市等问题提出了十一条看法与建议。     

Quantiles as optimal point forecasts

Loss functions play a central role in the theory and practice of forecasting. If the loss function is quadratic, the mean of the predictive distribution is the unique optimal point predictor. If the loss is symmetric piecewise linear, any median is an optimal point forecast. Quantiles arise as optimal point forecasts under a general class of economically relevant loss functions, which nests the asymmetric piecewise linear loss, and which we refer to as generalized piecewise linear (GPL). The level of the quantile depends on a generic asymmetry parameter which reflects the possibly distinct costs of underprediction and overprediction. Conversely, a loss function for which quantiles are optimal point forecasts is necessarily GPL. We review characterizations of this type in the work of Thomson, Saerens and Komunjer, and relate to proper scoring rules, incentive-compatible compensation schemes and quantile regression. In the empirical part of the paper, the relevance of decision theoretic guidance in the transition from a predictive distribution to a point forecast is illustrated using the Bank of England’s density forecasts of United Kingdom inflation rates, and probabilistic predictions of wind energy resources in the Pacific Northwest.     

Consumption paths under prospect utility in an optimal growth model

This paper studies the Cass-Koopmans-Ramsey model of optimal economic growth in the presence of loss aversion and habit formation. The representative agent's preferences for consumption can be gradually varied between the standard constant intertemporal elasticity of substitution (CIES) case and Kahneman and Tversky's prospect utility. We find that the transitional dynamics of optimal consumption paths differ distinctly from the standard model, in particular consumption smoothing is more pronounced. We also show that prospect utility can cause the economy to remain in a steady state with low consumption and low capital.     

What Drives the Property Price-Trading Volume Correlation? Evidence from a Commercial Real Estate Market

The significant price-trading volume correlation found in the residential property market presents a challenge to the rational expectation hypothesis. Existing theories account for this fact with either capital market imperfection (down-payment effect or loss-aversion consideration) or imperfect information (search theoretic models). This paper employs data from a commercial real estate market, which face a different degree of severity of capital market constraint than the residential market, and thus provide an indirect but effective test for alternative theories. Policy implications are also discussed.     

期望落差与互联网新创企业狙击型国际化——基于资源条件与市场环境二元情境视角

互联网新创企业国际化战略目标及实施路径独具特色，逐渐成为研究热点。以北京小桔科技有限公司为案例对象，基于业绩反馈理论和前景理论，构建“期望落差-二元情境-狙击型国际化”的研究框架，系统揭示互联网新创企业狙击型国际化行为及实现机制。研究发现：期望落差促使互联网新创企业实施狙击型国际化战略，资源条件与市场环境二元情境在其中具有调节作用，即在资源劣势-市场壁垒高情境下采取“组合拳”模式的狙击型国际化，在资源劣势-市场壁垒低情境下采取界内合作模式的狙击型国际化，在资源优势-市场壁垒高情境下采取跨界协作模式的狙击型国际化，在资源优势-市场壁垒低情境下采取市场控制模式的狙击型国际化。