Factors contributing to injury severity in work zone related crashes in New Zealand

Roadworks take place frequently on existing roads in New Zealand. The adverse effects of poor road conditions and reduced road width due to the presence of a work zone on the safety of road users and workers at the work zone have been a matter of concern. Several studies have been conducted to examine the risk factors contributing to the occurrence of road crashes in work zones in different countries. Slow-moving and stopped vehicles near work zones have been found to be the primary cause of crashes and casualties in the work zones. Excessive speed of passing traffic has also been recognized as a crucial factor contributing to work zone related crashes in New Zealand. This study examined the effect of possible risk factors contributing to severe injury and fatality in work zone related crashes in New Zealand. A multinomial logistic regression model was established to determine the association between crash severity and factors such as road environment, vehicle attributes, driver behavior, and crash circumstances, based on the information available on 453 road crashes during the period from 2008 to 2013. The results indicated that the time period, vehicle involvement, and presence of vulnerable road users were the factors that determined the crash severity in work zones. This implies that improvements are required in traffic control and management measures in work zones to enhance road safety in the long run.     

From inflation to exchange rate targeting: Estimating the stabilization effects for a small open economy

This paper attempts to estimate possible losses in macroeconomic stabilization due to a move from inflation to exchange rate targeting on the example of the Czech Republic. The authors use an estimated New Keynesian policy model, typical inflation and exchange rate targeting rules, and representative central bank loss functions to carry out these estimations. The authors find that for the Czech Republic, moving from the historically applied inflation targeting to optimized exchange rate targeting should not involve any significant losses in macroeconomic stabilization. However, the Czech National Bank could improve its stabilization outcomes while remaining an inflation targeter. This requires the Czech National Bank to respond more strongly to increasing expected future inflation and to be less concerned about an opening output gap when adjusting its policy rate. Moving then from such optimized inflation targeting to optimized exchange rate targeting can result in significant losses in economic stabilization in the magnitude of 0.4–2% points of GDP growth.     

中国如何赢得二十一世纪人才争夺战

进入21世纪，世界性的人才竞争更加激烈。中国面对人才流失的严峻局面，必须积极采取对策，否则将失去21世纪的发展机遇。     

最优货币政策规则的选择及在我国的应用

本文首先根据我国的实际数据 ,建立和估计混合型模型 ,并以此作为研究货币政策规则的基本框架。然后在随机模拟的基础上 ,以社会福利为基准 ,计算和比较三种货币政策决策方式对社会福利的影响 ,这三种决策方式是完全承诺的最优货币政策规则、最优的Taylor规则及相机抉择。同时计算与福利损失等价的通胀率变化 ,结果表明 ,最优的Taylor规则能够很好地近似完全承诺的最优货币政策规则 ,这为进一步改进我国货币政策的决策和操作提供了一个指导方向。其次 ,对我国目前的货币政策决策和操作存在的问题进行分析 ,特别是对目前我国盯住货币供应量的体制所存在的问题进行分析 ,并提出改进的方案     

Difference in rural and urban driver-injury severities in highway–rail grade crossing accidents

Based on the Federal Railway Administration (FRA) database, there were 25,945 highway–rail crossing accidents in the United States between 2002 and 2011. With an extensive research, analysis results showed that there were substantial differences between rural and urban areas at highway–rail grade crossings. However, there is no published study specific on driver's injury severity at highway–rail grade crossings classified by area types. Using an ordered probit modelling approach, the study explores the determinants of driver-injury severity at rural highway–rail grade crossings compared with urban highway–rail grade crossings. The analysis found that motor vehicle driver's injury level at rural highway–rail grade crossing is extremely higher than urban area. Compared to collisions at urban area, collisions happened at rural area tend to result in more severe injuries. These crashes were more prevalent if vehicle drivers are driving at a high speed or the oncoming trains are high-speed. Moreover, highway–rail grade crossing accidents were more likely to occur at rural area without pavement and lighting.     

沿海城市围海造地的综合效应分析与可持续发展

围海造地是沿海域开发利用海洋、拓展海岸带发展空间的重要手段之一,它可以充分利用海洋的空间资源属性,正面效应显著.然而,盲目围海造地的负面效应也是当今世界各国关注的热点问题.本文从沿海城市围海造地的效应分析入手,综合考虑围海造地的利与弊,从社会效益、经济效益和环境效益三个方面抽取主要因素作为评价指标,运用模糊统计的方法构...     

自然灾害损失评估：联合国框架、评价与案例

研究目标：研究联合国最新灾害评估的方法体系,探索其在中国的运用与启示。研究方法：分析联合国灾害损失评估的原则,探讨重置成本法在灾害损失评估中的运用,并以2008年汶川地震为例进一步研究该方法体系在我国的实践。研究发现：联合国所推广的评估框架在我国具有适用性,与目前中国采用的统计方法得出的结果可能存在较大差异。研究创新：本文所研究的方法是联合国致力于建立的一套针对所有自然灾害一致的连贯的并且易于运用的评估方法,灾害经济损失的构成因子也与当前各国统计因子有所不同。研究价值：对这一方法的研究与运用将有助于中国的灾害统计逐步与国际接轨,并帮助我们更好的实现我国“十三五”规划和联合国所提出的减灾目标。     

对于非经常性损益界定和披露的一些思考

非经常性损益越来越成为上市公司操纵利润的工具,如何规范非经常性损益的界定和披露,约束上市公司此类行为,已经引起了我国监管部门的注意。并且发布了一些规定。本文结合国外非常性损益的界定和披露,探讨了我国非经常性损益的界定和披露。     

Nonparametric Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Expected Shortfall

We consider a nonparametric method to estimate the expected shortfall—that is, the expected loss on a portfolio of financial assets knowing that the loss is larger than a given quantile. We derive the asymptotic properties of the kernel estimators of the expected shortfall and its first-order derivative with respect to portfolio allocation in the context of a stationary process satisfying strong mixing conditions. An empirical illustration is given for a portfolio of stocks. Another empirical illustration deals with data on fire insurance losses.     

领导任职期限设置的经济解释--激励与效率损失的权衡

领导任职期限制度能激励个人在管理技能培养上进行投入,这有利于增加社会总剩余;然而,任职期限制度在提供激励的同时,也造成了潜在效率的损失。领导任职期限的设置是这二者之间权衡的结果。本文通过一个两阶段博弈的分析框架,利用动态的局部均衡权衡模型,从个人收益最大化和社会总剩余最大化的相互作用中,推导出了社会最优的领导任职期限。在我们的动态的局部均衡权衡模型中,个人投入水平是任职期限制度的内生产物。