Structural transformation or elite land capture? The growth of “emergent” farmers in Zambia

Over the last decade, Zambia has witnessed a rapid increase in the number of medium-scale “emergent farms” cultivating 5–20 ha of land. This study analyzes the factors underpinning this growth. We find that the growth of emergent farmers in Zambia is primarily attributable to land acquisition by salaried urbanites and by relatively privileged rural individuals. We found little evidence to support the hypothesis that the rise of emergent farmers primarily represents a process of successful accumulation by farmers who began farming with less than 5 ha of land, a situation faced by more than 95% of farming households. We argue that these outcomes are the result of Zambia’s land administration and agricultural spending policies. Rising concentration of landholdings in Zambia raises serious questions about the potential of current agricultural growth to act as a vehicle for broad based economic growth and poverty reduction.     

Policy analysis and advocacy for livestock-based development: The gap between household-level analysis and higher-level models

The dichotomy in approaches to policy analysis for developing countries’ livestock sectors is presented. Substantial experience and information generated from a large number of household-level studies is not being utilised by macro- and aggregate models which fail to recognise heterogeneity, dynamics and fundamental drivers of change in livestock systems. Household-level studies are not standardised and rarely identify and characterise key drivers and mechanisms for exploiting heterogeneity in policy analysis. The paper provides an overview of a set of six papers contained in a special edition which define and address this gap in analytical approaches and identify aspects of the way forward. Evidence is presented of inconsistencies and practicalities which emphasise the gap, but all papers present evidence of integrative progress and list opportunities for accelerating it. Constraints on the subject matter are outlined and a challenge to livestock policy analysts is made.     

Land pressures,the evolution of farming systems,and development strategies in Africa: A synthesis

Evidence assembled in this special issue of Food Policy shows that rising rural population densities in parts of Africa are profoundly affecting farming systems and the region’s economies in ways that are underappreciated in current discourse on African development issues. This study synthesizes how people, markets and governments are responding to rising land pressures in Africa, drawing on key findings from the various contributions in this special issue. The papers herein revisit the issue of Boserupian agricultural intensification as an important response to land constraints, but they also go further than Boserup and her followers to explore broader responses to land constraints, including non-farm diversification, migration, and reduced fertility rates. Agricultural and rural development strategies in the region will need to more fully anticipate the implications of Africa’s rapidly changing land and demographic situation, and the immense challenges that mounting land pressures pose in the context of current evidence of unsustainable agricultural intensification, a rapidly rising labor force associated with the region’s current demographic conditions, and limited nonfarm job creation. These challenges are manageable but will require explicit policy actions to address the unique development challenges in densely populated rural areas.     

Identifying and addressing land governance constraints to support intensification and land market operation: Evidence from 10 African countries

Beyond concerns about agricultural productivity growth, issues of land governance have attracted global interest as demand for land acquisition by outsiders has increased rapidly but most of the transfers failed to live up to expectations and instead disrupted local livelihoods. We use the land governance assessment framework to identify key conceptual issues and identify how land governance in 10 African countries compares to global good practice. Results point towards weak protection of rights in practice, large gaps in female land access, and limited outreach and effectiveness of institutions to record rights and adjudicate disputes. We note that programs to improve performance along these lines had significant impact in other contexts, suggesting that efforts to improve land governance will be warranted and should be closely monitored and evaluated in an effort to identify models suited to African conditions and assess their impact and interaction with other factor markets.     

The roles of land tenure reforms and land markets in the context of population growth and land use intensification in Africa

This article reviews the past and potential future roles of land tenure reforms and land markets in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as responses to population growth in the process of land use intensification and livelihood transformation. The farm size distribution and the existence of an inverse relationship (IR) between farm size and land productivity in SSA and the implications of this relationship for efficiency and equity are investigated. More secure property rights and removal of restrictions on land markets have the potential to create both efficiency and equity benefits, but there are high risks of elite capture of large land areas with inefficient and inequitable outcomes. This situation is the case not only in land-abundant areas but also in urban and peri-urban areas where increasingly larger proportions of people will make their living. Increasing population pressure in densely populated rural areas contributes to more rapid rural–urban migration, and creating alternative livelihood opportunities for the migrating youth population is essential to achieving economic development with social stability.     

Potential Spatial Labor and Human Capital Mobility in China: Evidence from College Admissions Under the National College Entrance Examination System

Abstract:

Higher education in China plays an important role in promoting labor and human capital mobility. In this paper, I empirically address the issue of regional disparities, college admissions under the National College Entrance Examination (CEE) system, and potential interregional labor and human capital mobility in China. The results show that examinees from western provinces have a strong preference for coastal universities, compared with examinees from central provinces. College admissions in China then seem to have a stronger effect on potential labor and human capital movement from the western to the coastal regions than from the central to the coastal regions.     

National cultural effects on leverage decisions: Evidence from emerging-market ADRs

We examine leverage decisions in the context of national culture over the 1996–2010 period. Cultural characteristics can explain capital structure decisions from emerging-markets cross-listings. The results show that firms from countries with high Individualism and Indulgence employ more debt. Firms located in countries with high Power Distance, Masculinity, Uncertainty Avoidance, and Long-term Orientation are less leveraged. Additionally, Exchange-traded and capital-raising ADRs are more likely to be from countries with weaker corporate governance. Univariate tests show that capital-raising ADRs employ less debt relative to non-capital-raising ADRs, and notably, in the post-cross-listing period. Interestingly, the home country's cultural characteristics of capital-raising and exchange-traded ADRs exert less influence on their capital structure decisions. Our findings suggest that there is a value discount associated with increased firm leverage. Our insights have practical implications for portfolio managers attempting to enter emerging markets through the use of ADRs. Moreover, investors can evaluate the often neglected effect of cultural values into firm performance.     

Lack of divine coincidence in New Keynesian models

The literature has long agreed that the divine coincidence holds in standard New Keynesian models: the monetary authority is able to simultaneously stabilize inflation and output gap in response to preference and technology shocks. I show that the divine coincidence holds only when inflation is stabilized at exactly zero. Even small deviations from zero generate policy trade-offs. I demonstrate this result using the model׳s non-linear equilibrium conditions to avoid biases from log-linearization. When the model is log-linearized, a non-zero steady state level of inflation gives rise to what I call the endogenous trend inflation cost-push shock in the New -Keynesian Phillips curve.     

Anticipatory policymaking in global venues: Policy change,adaptation, and the UNFCCC

The subfield of public policy depicts policymaking as reactive process wherein public officials respond to existing social problems. While this depiction holds true in many cases, it fails to account for instances where policy change occurs in anticipation of emerging threats or hazards. “Anticipatory problems” are projected to occur in the future, and it is the prospect of their occurring that generates policy debate. This paper examines the policymaking pattern engendered by anticipatory policy problems, highlighting the ways in which they challenge and support existing assumptions about the process of policy change. To illustrate this distinctive dynamic, this paper will present a case study examining the evolving debate over climate change adaptation policy within United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).     

Political uncertainty and a firm's credit risk: Evidence from the international CDS market

Using a large sample of firms with single-name credit default swap (CDS) contracts in 30 countries, we document the evidence that political uncertainty, proxied by national election dummy, is positively related to firm-level credit risk. Specifically, this positive relation is more pronounced for the firms that have no political connection or poor international diversification, and in the countries with higher political uncertainty and lower investor protections. Further, by using a difference-in-differences approach, we find evidence to support idiosyncratic volatility and debt rollover channels through which political uncertainty affects the credit risk of individual firm.