实物期权方法在企业投资决策中的应用研究

为了更好的对投资项目进行评估,引入了实物期权理论,为项目投资决策提供全新的思路。本文介绍了实物期权理论,并根据企业投资决策的特点,介绍了实物期权的分类和特征,提出了实物期权应用于企业投资决策的一般步骤。     

从一起美国森林资产评估官司看我国森林资产评估技术规范

通过对一起发生在美国阿拉巴马州涉及森林资源资产评估官司的案例分析,结合我国森林资源资产评估技术规范和实践,对我国有关森林资源资产评估的若干技术经济和操作问题进行了分析和讨论,提出了对我国森林资源资产评估技术规范的改进建议。     

Consumer Expectations for Geographical Origin: Eliciting Willingness to Pay (WTP) Using the Disconfirmation of Expectation Theory (EDT)

ABSTRACT

This study explores the impact of geographical origin in consumer expectations. Willingness to pay (WTP) for geographical origin was measured in three different information conditions (blind, labeled, and both blind and labeled) using an open ended technique of contingent valuation (CV) in the framework of expectations-disconfirmation theory (EDT). The results from the EDT show that a product with a positive reputation and highly preferred by the consumer is losing continuously the premium price paid for it. The decrease of the WTP in full information condition for the most preferred origin is probably due to the lowered consumer expectations and to the damages of the good image as a result of unfair competition, usurpation, and the misappropriation of the name. Geographical indications (GIs) may offer a solution to these problems by preserving the predictive value of origin information, maintaining high consumer expectations, and also preserving the good reputation of the product.     

Pricing a rural development program: uncertainty,indifference, and protest behaviors

This article presents an econometric approach to modeling uncertainty, unwillingness to pay, and protest behavior in contingent valuation studies. For that purpose, a mixture model with sample selection is developed for a multiple‐bounded uncertainty elicitation format. The proposed theoretical framework is applied to evaluate the social welfare impact of implementing a sustainable rural development program. Results show that a “naive” analytical approach that excludes protesters from the analysis would result in significantly higher willingness to pay estimates for those individuals who favor the implementation of the program and agree to reveal their true reservation prices.     

Predicting uncertainty: the impact of risk measurement on value of real estate portfolios

This paper presents a theoretical framework for an assessment and valuation of real estate assets and funds, based on modern stochastic discounted cash flow (DCF) models, which accurately captures the nature of related risks. We show that an accurate risk-adjusted valuation is particularly difficult for real estate investments, due to practical limits to diversification and difficulties in approximating total risk with systematic risk. We develop a risk assessment framework that includes idiosyncratic risk but focuses on insolvency risk related to a specific cash flow profile. We also present a methodology of rating this risk, using forecasts and simulations. We conclude that simulation techniques are a valuable tool in property risk assessment. Further, we show that cost of capital and value of assets depend on diversification of specific risks, investors can achieve in their portfolios.     

无居民海岛实物期权估价模式研究

我国无居民海岛的市场进程刚刚起步,海岛价值评估方法没有统一、规范的制度或标准性规定。本文根据无居民海岛使用权价值的期权特征,应用实物期权理论,估算海岛的期权价值,以突破原有传统估价方法在海岛市场化交易初期阶段无法适用的瓶颈。研究结果显示,分别运用布莱克—舒尔斯模型和二项树模型估算的海岛价值基本一致,相比而言,二项树模型能够反映各个时间节点的参数变化,更加直观和灵活。研究结论说明实物期权估价方法适用于无居民海岛使用权估价,估价结果能够全面反映现金流时间价值、未来不确定性以及柔性决策权共同创造的海岛整体价值,为无居民海岛价值评估提供了新思路。     

Impact of bus rapid transit on housing price and accessibility changes in Sydney: A repeat sales approach

ABSTRACT

New public transport infrastructure is expected to improve accessibility for local residents, and thus contribute to increased land value. The contribution that a bus rapid transit (BRT) system can make to increased land value is less certain than for rail-based systems, with the literature mostly containing bus-based examples from developing countries with extensive BRT networks. This article considers a BRT system named the Liverpool–Parramatta Transitway (LPT) that was implemented in southwestern Sydney in 2003 to improve public transport accessibility in the local area. A repeat sales model is constructed to investigate the impact of the LPT on residential housing prices and accessibility changes using repeat sales data from before and after the opening of the LPT. This identified little price difference between properties close to LPT stations and outside of the area that could be considered as affected by the LPT service coverage. This outcome is at variance with the theoretical underpinning of land value uplift and other empirical evidence relating to the LPT. Hedonic models using the same repeat sales data investigate the study area in more detail, stratifying the sample by housing type and by comparing separate before and after models. These research outcomes identify the extent to which the BRT system has an impact on local housing prices through accessibility improvements to the study area and provide a deeper understanding as to how the quantification of land value uplift from BRT represents one element of the wider economic benefits of a BRT system.     

A push to cycling—exploring the e-bike's role in overcoming barriers to bicycle use with a survey and an intervention study

In Norway, as in many countries, there is a political goal to increase bicycle use. The electric bicycle (e-bike) is a promising tool for achieving this goal, given the hilliness of the country. However, little is yet known about the deterrents of cycling in Norway in general, and in particular how the purchase of an e-bike could be stimulated.

In the current study, 5500 respondents from a convenience sample among car owners were asked about their perceptions of bicycling in general, and of e-bikes in particular as well as their willingness to pay (WTP) for an e-bike. Randomly selected participants (N = 66) were given access to an e-bike for a limited time (2 or 4 weeks). A second questionnaire captured the same perceptions and WTP post-intervention. The results were compared with a control group (N = 214).

The results showed that those who cycle the least were most interested in buying an e-bike and that prior knowledge of the e-bike corresponded with a higher desire to buy one. Pro-environmental values did not predict interest in e-bikes, neither did norms and attitudes toward cycling. The WTP for an e-bike increased after having experienced the benefits for those who used an e-bike compared to those who did not. Price reduction of the e-bike (e.g. VAT exemption), spread of knowledge among the wider population, and actions to offer an e-bike experience may therefore be effective strategies for further expansion of the e-bike in the transport system and thereby to increase bicycle use in Norway.     

电子政务价值评估流程——以公众为角度

经过这些年的发展,政府公务员、电子政务项目的开发者、公众都发现我国的电子政务建设缺乏相应的绩效评估机制,从而导致了政府部门的盲目投入和盲目建设现象的发生。为了促进我国电子政务又快又好的发展,可以以经济学作为电子政务价值评估的基础,在此基础上提出基于公众角度电子政务价值评估的内涵,并设立相应的评价方法以及评价的意义。     

构筑以价值为核心的现代财务分析

本文将从传统的财务分析入手,指出它已经不能满足我国目前资本市场发展的需要。文章着重介绍如何构筑以价值为核心的现代财务分析,同时指出在我国目前的资本市场下做财务分析遇到的困难。