上市公司资本结构的现状及其优化对策——来自纺织服装行业的实践

资本结构是企业融资决策的核心内容,资本结构是否合理关系到企业经营绩效的高低、财务目标的实现和能否可持续发展。本文基于现代资本结构理论,运用比较分析法剖析了纺织服装上市公司资本结构的现状、问题和形成的内部因素,并提出了优化纺织服装上市公司资本结构的对策。     

共同富裕、贸易开放与中国的代际收入流动性

本文利用2002-2018年期间的中国家庭收入调查数据,系统考察了贸易开放对中国代际收入流动性的影响及其作用机制。研究结果表明:(1)从整体上来看,贸易开放显著促进了中国的代际收入流动性,经内生性处理和稳健性检验,这一结论是成立的。(2)贸易开放主要通过促进子代教育、职业向上流动显著提高代际收入流动,但通过激励企业创新、提高子代个人努力程度的两个机制作用不显著。(3)贸易开放显著提高了男性子代的代际收入流动性,对女性子代的影响不显著,与此同时,还具有明显的“弱势群体”特点,显著提高了受教育水平较低子代、低收入家庭子代的代际收入流动性,有助于这类子代跳出“代际低收入传承陷阱”。本文研究提示贸易开放提高了中国的代际收入流动性,有利于促进共同富裕。在继续提高贸易开放水平的同时,应进一步重视提高低收入家庭子代的受教育水平,关注女性子代的收入问题。     

Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method

Monitoring business cycles faces two potentially conflicting objectives: accuracy and timeliness. To strike a balance between these dual objectives, we propose a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to identify turning points in real time with a sequential stopping time as a solution. Using four monthly indexes of real economic activity in the United States, we evaluated the method’s real-time ability to date the past five recessions. The proposed method identified similar turning-point dates as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), with no false alarms, but on average, it dated peaks four months faster and troughs 10 months faster relative to the NBER announcement. The timeliness of our method is also notable compared to the dynamic factor Markov-switching model: the average lead time was about five months when dating peaks and two months when dating troughs.     

Policy options for afforestation in Flanders

This paper analyses current and alternative afforestation policy instruments in Flanders. First we select forest sites that maximize net social benefits given a constraint on the total area of new forests and then we select policy instruments that yield this optimal combination of sites. For each policy option, we calculate the associated costs for landowners and government as well as net social benefits for society. Our empirical illustration shows that the welfare gain is considerable if the afforestation subsidy is conditioned on an objective criterion rather than a case-by-case approach. Our results also show that it is worthwhile to consider alternative policy instruments, such as auctions, not previously used in Belgian legislation.     

The optimal treatment of tax expenditures

This paper analyzes the optimal treatment of tax expenditures. It develops an optimal tax model where individuals derive utility from spending on a “contribution” good such as charitable giving. The contribution good has also a public good effect on all individuals in the economy. The government imposes linear taxes on earnings and on the contribution good so as to maximize welfare. The government may also finance directly the contribution good out of tax revenue. Optimal tax and subsidy rates on earnings and the contribution good are expressed in terms of empirically estimable parameters and the redistributive tastes of the government. The optimal subsidy on the contribution good is increasing in the size of the price elasticity of contributions, the size of the crowding out effect of public contributions on private contributions, and the size of the public good effect of the contribution good. Numerical simulations show that the optimal subsidy on contributions is fairly sensitive to the size of these parameters but that, in most cases, it should be lower than the earnings tax rate.     

中美公众对收入差距的反应差异探讨

中美的基尼系数如实地反映了两国的收入差距。中美两国民众对收入差距反应有差异的原因是因为两国的收入分配形状、社会保障水平、经济发展水平、非法收入的社会影响不同。由此可得出这样一个结论：要缩小我国收入差距，就必须在农村实行规模经济，完善社会保障，加大打击非法收入的力度。     

A substitution orbit model of competitive innovations

Successful innovation and diffusion of technology can be attributed to the identification of the orbit of emerging new technologies that complement or substitute for existing technologies. This dynamism resembles the co-evolution process in an ecosystem. In an ecosystem, in order to maintain sustainable development, the complex interplay between competition and cooperation, typically observed in predator-prey systems, create a sophisticated balance. Given that an ecosystem can be used as a masterpiece system, this sophisticated balance can provide suggestive ideas for identifying an optimal orbit of competitive innovations with complement or substitution dynamism.Prompted by such a sophisticated balance in an ecosystem, this paper analyzes the optimal orbit of competitive innovations and, on the basis of an application of Lotka-Volterra equations, it reviews substitution orbits of Japan's monochrome to color TV system, fixed telephones to cellular telephones, cellular telephones to mobile Internet access service, and analog to digital TV broadcasting. On the basis of substitution orbits analyses, it attempts to extract suggestions supportive to identifying an optimal policy option in a complex orbit leading to expected orbit.Key findings include policy options that are effective in controlling parameters for Lotka-Volterra equations leading to expected orbit.     

Spatial agglomeration and endogenous growth

This paper constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model with spatial interactions in which a human capital externality is the centripetal force towards agglomeration. The resource cost of transportation is, on the other hand, the main centrifugal force, preventing a city from growing unboundedly. A central feature of our analysis is the dynamic interaction between (perpetual) economic growth and (bounded) city growth. We examine the socially optimal and the decentralized growth rates as well as city sizes. In the decentralized environment, individuals under-invest, whereas cities are under-populated. We show how public policies may enable a decentralized city to attain the socially optimal allocation.     

出资人监管模式的理性选择：基于层次分析法的思考

综观我国当前许多地方在国有资产出资人监管模式的具体应用上,可谓多种多样,不少地方也在反复斟酌何种模式更能扬长避短。本文将目前存在的监管模式大致归纳为四种形式,即通过出资人对所出资企业组建或强化董事会的建设与运行、通过出资人外部派驻监事会、通过出资人委派财务总监,以及完全在公司法框架下全面重申和强化”三会”模式。本文根据出资人监管模式在监管独立性、监管效力性、监管持续性以及监管节约性四个方面的系统性特征,利用专门解决定性与定量交织问题的层次分析法,对决策行为的优化进行模拟量化比较,从而为理性优选出资人监管模式创建了一个新的思路。     

天津物流业基础设施及发展水平统计分析

物流业是天津市重点发展的支柱型产业.本文旨在介绍天津物流业的现状,并对物流产业水平进行系统的统计分析,为宏观物流政策的制定提供依据.