基于系统基模的中国创意产业发展研究

本文首先对中国创意产业的发展现状进行了梳理，中国的创意产业正经历一个大的发展时期；对于中国创意产业如何能保持可持续发展，本文采用系统基模分析方法，建立了3个系统基模进行深入分析，拟从系统和动态两个角度来分析各个因素之间是如何影响的，分析发展过程中出现问题的根本原因，找出解决问题的“杠杆解”并提出了解决问题的对策。     

Real options with a double continuation region

If the average risk-adjusted growth rate of the project's present value V overcomes the discount rate but is dominated by the average risk-adjusted growth rate of the cost I of entering the project, a non-standard double continuation region can arise: The firm waits to invest in the project if V is insufficiently above I as well as if V is comfortably above I. Under a framework with diffusive uncertainty, we give exact characterization to the value of the option to invest, to the structure of the double continuation region, and to the subset of the primitives' values that support such a region.     

Credibility and determinism in a game of persuasion

This paper studies a game of persuasion. A speaker attempts to persuade a listener to take an action by presenting evidence. Glazer and Rubinstein (2006) showed that when the listener's decision is binary, neither randomization nor commitment have any value for the listener, and commented that the binary nature of the decision was important for the commitment result. In this paper, I show that concavity is the critical assumption for both results: no value to commitment and no value to randomization. Specifically, the key assumption is that the listener's utility function is a concave transformation of the speaker's utility function. This assumption holds vacuously in the binary model. The result that concavity implies credibility allows us to dispense with the assumption that the listener's decision is binary and significantly broadens the scope of the model.     

The gain from commitment in a two-country economy with inflation persistence

In recent years, the worldwide inflation rate appears to be converging to a low stable level. Moreover, the Phillips curve is flattening in many countries. These facts indicate that the output gap fluctuations associated with inflation persistence in one country influence other countries and suggest that the central bank consider the effect of inflation persistence on the real economy in an open economy framework. The objective of this paper is to explore optimal monetary policy in a two-country economy with inflation persistence. To consider the case in which inflation persistence is present in both countries, we assume that a fraction of firms that change their prices follows the rule-of-thumb pricing rule. In this case, the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) in each country becomes flatter as the fraction of firms employing the rule-of-thumb pricing rule increases in both countries. Our results show gains from commitment in a two-country economy with inflation persistence. This paper addresses that the presence of a severe deflationary bias is the main source of the large gain from a commitment policy in a two-country economy with inflation persistence.     

“互联网+”背景下创新要素流动对城市能级提升的动力机制研究

基于系统动力学的理论和方法,构建了“互联网+”背景下城市能级提升的系统动力学模型,分析了技术、资金和人才等创新要素流动对城市能级提升的动力机制。研究表明,受互联网的影响,创新要素在全球城市间频繁地流动和集聚,不仅增强了城市的对外影响力,还促进了城市功能的完善,对城市能级的提升有显著促进作用。通过对比分析,从技术进步、人才引进以及跨国投资3个方面探究了这种促进作用的内在机制,并在此基础上,提出了新形势下上海城市发展的建议。     

公司内部治理水平与公司风险承担间的动态关系——基于动态内生性的经验研究

本文以2002—2011年716家上市公司为样本,在动态内生性的框架下,运用动态面板的System GMM估计方法,同时考虑了三种内生性,以动态性视角研究了公司治理水平与公司风险承担间的关系。研究发现：（1）公司治理水平与公司风险承担正相关;（2）公司治理水平不仅对公司风险承担有短期影响,而且还有长期影响,提高公司治理水平对公司风险承担影响的持续时间大约为4—5年;（3）前期公司风险承担对当期公司治理水平有反馈效应;（4）公司治理水平与公司风险承担间存在动态内生性。     

突发大客流在城市轨道交通网络中的传播机理

根据突发大客流在城市轨道交通车站的作业性质和特点,将城市轨道交通网络中的车站分为发生站、换乘站和中间站。在此基础上,通过站台候车区的乘客密度、到达列车的剩余载客能力、站台候车乘客数和乘客上车效率等因素,构建站台候车区乘客密度影响模型和列车运行延误时间模型,并总结出突发大客流在城市轨道交通网络中的传播机理。从车站服务水平和列车运行影响两个方面对突发大客流传播的影响因素及相应的调整措施进行分析。     

中国城市化进程中农民工对经济产出的贡献与收益分享

在城市化进程中,农民工群体已经成为中国城市第二、三产业劳动力的重要组成部分。文章充分考虑了农民工与城镇职工在劳动生产率和劳动强度上的差异,运用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数分析1991～2010年农民工群体对中国非农经济产出的贡献率及其收入水平,得出的基本结论是:农民工对我国非农经济产出的贡献率平均为16.37%,其对中国国民经济增长做出了重要贡献,相应地,农民工群体的收入水平相对于其对非农经济产出的贡献比城镇职工偏低。城镇职工对非农经济产出的贡献是农民工的1.63倍,然而城镇职工收入平均是农民工收入的3.43倍。文章的研究结论为中国"十二五"期间新一轮扩大内需政策提供了新的思路。     

A guide to the computation of stationarity tests

In this paper we compare ways of computing stationarity tests. We show that whereas some of the procedures recommended lead to inconsistency of the tests, it is still possible to compute a test with good properties in finite sample in terms of empirical size and power. The guidance suggested in the paper is illustrated by testing for the purchasing power parity hypothesis in some developed countries.