分整阶数半参数估计的有限样本性质研究

随着对经济和金融时间序列长记忆性的研究,分整阶数估计已成为当前理论研究的焦点问题。以对数周期图回归和局部Whittle方法为代表的半参数分整阶数估计方法在实践中得到广泛应用,但对这两类半参数估计方法的有限样本性质的比较则鲜有涉及,影响了在实践中对估计方法的选择。利用蒙特卡洛模拟方法,在不同数据产生的过程下,这两种半参数估计方法有限样本性质的研究结果表明：在ARFIMA(0, d, 0)过程下,LW类估计量具有较好的小样本性质;在平稳ARFIMA(1, d, 0)过程下,本文建议的QGPH估计量的有限样本性质要优于其他对数周期图估计量;在非平稳过程下,MGPH的偏差最小。     

基于ESDA-GWR的粮食单产及其驱动因子的空间异质性研究

在耕地面积扩展有限和城市化高速发展的背景下,粮食单产的区域差异对我国粮食安全具有重要意义。以我国31省（市、自治区）为研究单元,借助ESDA和GWR模型,结合我国各地自然条件的差异及其经济发展类型,揭示我国粮食单产的区域差异及其驱动因子的空间异质性。结果表明：1999—2008年,中西部地区粮食单产的增产对全国粮食产量的贡献越来越显著,75%的粮食单产增长潜力较大的区域集中在中西部;粮食单产存在着显著的空间相关性,各省域粮食生产重心发生移动,由传统的＂东部为主＂逐渐＂北上西进＂,向中西部地区欠发达省份集中;不同区域粮食单产的驱动因素呈现为一种非均衡联动的局域性特征,化肥施用量对粮食单产的影响在两个时间断面中差异最大,1999年回归系数全为正值,而在2006—2008年出现负值,这表明部分地区化肥对粮食单产的边际效应已经达到递减阶段。因此,应结合我国不同区域当前粮食单产的现状和驱动因子的效应机理,积极采取相应的有效措施以保障我国的粮食安全。     

金融约束、代理成本假说与企业投资行为——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

Financial constraints due to the imperfection of capital market have been emphasized as an important factors determining investment by researchers recently. Beside of which, the soft budget constraints (SBC) and agency problem caused by dual property structure of enterprise system are even more important for investment in transitional China. Combing the background of aggregate investment, this paper analyzes the investment behavior and its inner mechanism of listed company in China from different views of SBC, agency cost theory and financial constraints. Based on the empirical study of 1 373 listed company, we find there is indeed some differences for SOE and non-SOE in the aspect of financial constraints even the hypothesis on nexus of cash flow and investment fails. Evidence has been found to support that principal-agency problem in the background of SBC and financial constraints can explain the investment behavior of listed company jointly, which provides another way to interpret the investment behavior of listed company in transitional country. __________ Translated from Nankai Jingji Yanjiu 南开经济研究 (Nankai Economic Studies), 2008, (1): 3–18     

企业社会责任会影响创新吗?——基于研发异质性与产权性质视角

选取2008-2017年全部A股上市公司为样本,研究企业的社会责任承担状况与创新活动之间的关系,同时考虑研发活动异质性与产权性质对研究问题的影响。研究结果表明：企业社会责任表现与企业的创新活动呈现一种正相关关系;考虑到企业研发活动异质性后,企业社会责任对探索式创新的正向激励作用更大;考虑到企业产权后,企业社会责任表现与企业整体创新活动、探索式创新活动之间的正相关关系在非国有企业中更为明显。     

混合股权制衡度与真实盈余管理行为

混合所有制改革形成了非国有股与国有股相互制衡的股权结构。通过研究国有企业中非国有股权和国有股权相互制衡的程度与真实盈余管理行为的关系发现：混合股权制衡度显著抑制了国有企业的真实盈余管理行为,但当国有性质股权占比小于非国有性质股权占比时上述抑制作用减弱。另外,参与混合所有制改革的金融类、外资类股权相比民营类股权制衡度,对真实盈余管理行为发挥了更显著的治理作用。机制检验发现,混合股权制衡一方面通过提升业绩,提高对真实盈余管理动机的抑制作用,从而缓解了真实盈余管理行为;另一方面通过提升内部控制对真实盈余管理的抑制作用,降低了真实盈余管理行为。以上结论有助于深化国有企业混合所有制改革,为提升混改中的审计监管质量提供参考。     

基于GWR模型的省域旅游影响因素空间差异分析

利用地理加权回归(geographically weighted regression,GWR)方法,以中国31个省城为例,研究省城旅游影响因素的空间差异,估算出各个地区旅游影响因素的弹性系数.结果表明:经济发展水平和基础设施是影响中国大部分省域旅游发展最为重要的因素,经济发展水平变量弹性系数在东北、华东、华北、西北地区较大;基础设施则对华中、华南及西南地区旅游较大影响;人力资源变量在东北和华北地区起到了主导作用,而旅游上层设施在西北地区的拉动作用明显.最后提出,各个地区应该制定差异化的旅游政策做引导,从而使各个地区旅游发展越来越好,也有利于全国旅游水平总体提高.     

Extent and intensity of investment with multiple capital goods

Overall investment is the product of the number of capital goods for which triggering has occurred (the extensive or reductive margin) and the depth of investment per capital good (intensive margin). Based on a longitudinal plant-level data and using dynamic panel techniques we investigated the validity of the hypothesis that the intensity of investment increases as its extent increases. Our results indicate a strong linkage between the extent and intensity of investment decisions, finding which holds both for positive and negative investment decisions. This linkage suggests that the decision on how many capital types to initiate investment is closely connected to the decision regarding the depth of investment expenditures. Moreover, the intensity–extent derivative remains positive but its magnitude decreases with plant size, providing indirect evidence for higher complementarity between capital types for smaller plants.     

基于阶层线性模型的集聚经济实证分析

基于中国151个地级城市的制造业行业嵌套数据,运用阶层线性模型和集聚经济的间接估计方法,捕捉集聚经济行业维度不可观测的异质性,揭示集聚经济在行业与城市维度间的内在联系。实证结果表明:地方化经济在制造业中得到验证;行业层面的集聚经济不仅受行业自身特征的影响,而且深受行业所嵌套的城市经济社会环境的影响;城市异质性显著影响行业集聚经济。     

水库库区运营管理政策满意度的空间异质性分析

针对水库库区政策体系因自然资源禀赋差异性导致的政策满意度异质问题,引入顾客满意度理论,基于结构方程模型,构建了异质资源禀赋下库区居民政策感知的结构方程模型,揭示水库库区政策满意度空间分异特征,提出异质资源禀赋下水库库区政策制定的对策建议。并以浯溪口水库为例,应用本文研究框架,探究库区居民政策感知偏好的空间分异特征。     

Modeling farmers’ decisions on tea varieties in Vietnam: a multinomial logit analysis

This article analyzes households’ choice on tea varieties in Vietnam by using a multinomial logit model. The modeling takes into account the issue of unobserved individual heterogeneity and the endogeneity of some explanatory variables (use of chemical and organic fertilizers). The results show that important factors influencing the decision to adopt one type of tea varieties include income, age, household size, farming contract, and use of organic fertilizers, but also membership of professional associations such as the Tea Association and the Farmers Union.