转型期中国城乡居民宏观消费与储蓄的实证检验

在经济转型的历史进程中,中国居民消费的宏观制度环境和微观选择行为发生了较为重大的变迁。文章在制度转型的宏观背景下,基于居民消费行为的分析框架,分别建立了城镇与农村居民宏观消费与储蓄模型,并对中国城乡居民消费与收入的长期均衡和短期波动关系进行了实证检验。在此基础上,提出了相应的政策建议。     

The Higher Earning in America: Are 529 Plans a Good Way to Save for College?

This article studies whether 529 plans are an effective way for most people to save for college. The 529 plans were created in 1996 to help low- and middle-income American families save for college. Since this time they have adopted more tax advantages and grown substantially as a result. While total balances in 529 plans now exceed $250 billion, less than 3.0 percent of households have a 529 plan. And the majority of 529 plan accounts are held by the wealthiest households. Low- and middle-income households receive little tax savings from investing in 529 plans, and some states count these plans against financial aid. Also, 529 plans are complicated, rules vary by state, and fund management fees tend to be high. Thus, 529 plans are not the panacea to college affordability.     

中国U型储蓄的分析

我国的储蓄率逐渐变为U型和国外的倒U型是相反的。退休后的储蓄率高于工作的人的储蓄率，出现了和生命周期理论相违背的现象。这种趋势从1995年开始，到2000年出现大的上升，到2005年趋势非常明显。     

我国农村小额信贷未来发展路径探析

建设社会主义新农村需要大量的资金投入,特别是小额农贷对农民致富持续发展无疑又是举足轻重。本文首先分析了我国农村小额信贷存在的问题,进而指出了其未来的发展路径。得出邮政储蓄银行在农村小额信贷业务方面大有可为。最后分析了邮政储蓄银行农村小额信贷风险的防范措施。     

Precautionary saving under liquidity constraints: Evidence from rural Pakistan

This paper investigates precautionary saving under liquidity constraints in Pakistan using household panel data. In particular, while it estimates Kimball's [Kimball, M.S. Precautionary saving in the small and in the large. Econometrica 1990; 58; 53–73.] prudence parameter based on a framework that is similar to Dynan [Dynan, K.E. How prudent are consumers? Journal of Political Economy 1993; 101; 1104–1113.], this study deviates from the framework by explicitly considering liquidity constraints, as in Zeldes [Zeldes, S.P. Consumption and liquidity constraints: an empirical investigation. Journal of Political Economy 1989; 97; 305–346.]. By doing so, this paper attempts to differentiate the standard precautionary saving caused by uncertainty from that caused by liquidity constraints. Furthermore, endogenous liquidity constraints are used in order to resolve issues of selection biases. We find substantial evidence of the presence of precautionary saving in Pakistan. More specifically, the estimated prudence is significantly higher for liquidity-constrained households as compared with unconstrained ones. The finding suggests that the precautionary saving motives appear stronger when households see that their access to credit markets is limited.     

Commentary: Morality and workability ­ a rejoinder to O'Riordan

This paper is about understanding the rhetoric of precaution and the practice of decision-making in areas of environmental controversy. It untangles the rhetoric, as established in documented agreements referring to precaution, from the constituent ideas that embody it, as characterized by those who deliberate on its application. By analysing the ways in which the rhetoric of precaution is framed within these documents it is possible to identify different elements that make up the principle in theory. By focussing on the constituent ideas behind the precautionary principle it is possible to move forward from the stalemate of rhetoric that could become the focus of attention itself.     

On the utility premium of Friedman and Savage

We re-examine the utility premium of Friedman–Savage [Friedman, Milton and Savage, Leonard J., “The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk.” Journal of Political Economy 56, 1948, pp. 279–304.]. This measure is useful in understanding risky choices. For instance its reaction to an increased wealth equates to a precautionary demand for saving. We also analyze its two components.     

国际河流纠纷的国家责任问题

当今淡水资源日趋紧张、国际河流水资源的合理利用与管理已成为国际社会广泛关注的重要问题。笔者结合盖巴斯科夫——拉基玛洛大坝案,通过对该案的分析与总结基础上,认为：一方面,应将可持续发展原则、风险预防原则等特殊的环境法原则提升到国际法的基本原则范畴。在国家责任方面不能仅以对环境造成损害后果来作为追究责任的前提,也应该考虑对防止损害费用的补偿;另一方面,针对中国国际河流水资源的开发和利用,也提出了几点建议,以冀更好地推动我国水资源的环境保护。     

论信用不足对我国需求不足的影响和对策

现实社会存在着严重的需求不足 ,造成的原因说法不一。与此同时 ,社会中也存在着严重的信用问题。需求不足实乃信用不足 ,要通过建立政府、企业等市场主体和公民的信用监控体系等机制 ,在全社会大力开展公民道德素质教育 ,提升整个社会的信用水平 ,降低投资风险 ,从而扩大银行和民间的投资 ,拉动需求。     

Counting carbon: historic emissions from fossil fuels,long-run measures of sustainable development and carbon debt

This article examines how to account for the welfare effects of carbon dioxide emissions, using the historical experiences of Britain and the USA from the onset of the industrial revolution to the present. While a single country might isolate itself from the detrimental effects of global warming in the short run, in the long all countries are unable to free ride. Thus, we support the use of a single global price for carbon dioxide emissions. The calculated price should decrease as we move back in time to take into account that carbon dioxide is a stock pollutant, and that one unit added to the present large stock is likely to cause more damage than a unit emitted under the lower concentration levels in the past. We incorporate the annual costs of British and US carbon emissions into genuine savings, and calculate the accumulated costs of their carbon dioxide emissions. Enlarging the scope and calculating the cumulative cost of carbon dioxide from the four largest emitters gives new insights into the question of who is responsible for climate change.