中国股票市场风险度量的模型选择与比较研究

分别采用等权移动平均方法、指教加权移动平均方法、GARCH(1,1)方法、GARCH(1,1)-t方法和Pareto型极值分布方法计算上海和深圳股票日收益率的VaR.向后检验表明,Pareto型极值分布方法比其他方法更能准确地反映我国股市的风险.     

Winning probabilities in a pairwise lottery system with three alternatives

Summary. The pairwise lottery system is a multiple round voting procedure which chooses by lot a winner from a pair of alternatives to advance to the next round where in each round the odds of selection are based on each alternatives majority rule votes. We develop a framework for determining the asymptotic relative likelihood of the lottery selecting in the final round the Borda winner, Condorcet winner, and Condorcet loser for the three alternative case. We also show the procedure is equivalent to a Borda lottery when only a single round of voting is conducted. Finally, we present an alternative voting rule which yields the same winning probabilities as the pairwise lottery in the limiting case as the number of rounds of the pairwise lottery becomes large.Received: 5 June 2003, Revised: 17 June 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D71. Correspondence to: Jac C. HeckelmanWe thank Keith Dougherty and Andrew Yates for their comments.     

从"万事达卡"事件看信用卡风险防范机制

伴随信息技术的飞速发展和技术专业化的要求,信用卡数据处理外包服务已成为商业银行长期战略成本管理的新兴工具,逐渐被越来越多的商业银行所采用.面对国内蓬勃发展的信用卡市场,如何有效利用外包服务带来的高效率,同时防范信用卡风险至关重要.本文首先从经济学角度探讨采用信用卡外包服务带来的高效率与较优的安全性,并指出采用信用卡外包服务可能带来的风险以及我国商业银行信用卡业务防范外包风险的服务外包策略.     

推动我国高新产业发展的"孵化器+风险投资"模式研究

近20年来,世界各国为了推动高新技术产业的发展,普遍采用“孵化器 风险投资”模式。这一模式在许多国家的实践过程中,充分体现了其优势,有效地贯穿于高新技术企业的培育、成长和壮大过程中。尤其是与我国情况相似,同为以政府为主导推动高新技术产业发展的以色列,通过运用这一模式获得了巨大的成功。反观我国,技术孵化器和风险投资行业出现已经有十几年的历史,但各自的发展一直受到众多因素的限制,成功的合作更是难得一见。在我国高新技术产业亟待快速发展的今天,这一问题必须得到解决。     

进口方银行按客户要求放货的责任与实务研究

在国际贸易中,进口方银行往往需要按照客户要求放货,如货物先于有关单据前达到目的地,需要进口方银行出具担保,或者是货运单据以银行为收货人或银行指示抬头时需要进口方银行授权或背书放货。本文从实务操作出发,阐述了提货担保的意义和特点,分析了银行办理提货担保业务面临的风险,对提货担保失效时限进行了探讨,并引申分析了货运单据以银行为收货人或银行指示抬头时银行授权或背书放货后的责任,最后依据银行实务提出了防范提货担保业务风险的对策。     

金融机构风险管理机制有效性研究——对风险管理长效机制问题的思考

本文针对我国金融界普遍关注的“建立风险管理长效机制”问题。从理论和实践两个角度研究风险管理的有效性问题。第一部分讨论“效”和“长效机制”问题的本质,第二部分根据发达国家实践研究有效风险管理机制的主要内容,第三部分对风险管理有效性的相关理论进行分析,第四部分分析风险管理失效的现实原因。第五部分对我国金融业实践中存在的风险管理“花瓶论”进行分析和评论,最后是本文的基本结论。     

Aggregating risk capital, with an application to operational risk

We describe a numerical procedure to obtain bounds on the distribution function of a sum of n dependent risks having fixed marginals. With respect to the existing literature, our method provides improved bounds and can be applied also to large non-homogeneous portfolios of risks. As an application, we compute the VaR-based minimum capital requirement for a portfolio of operational risk losses. JEL Classification G20 · 60E15 · 91B30     

Risk measure pricing and hedging in incomplete markets

This article attempts to extend the complete market option pricing theory to incomplete markets. Instead of eliminating the risk by a perfect hedging portfolio, partial hedging will be adopted and some residual risk at expiration will be tolerated. The risk measure (or risk indifference) prices charged for buying or selling an option are associated to the capital required for dynamic hedging so that the risk exposure will not increase. The associated optimal hedging portfolio is decided by minimizing a convex measure of risk. I will give the definition of risk-efficient options and confirm that options evaluated by risk measure pricing rules are indeed risk-efficient. Relationships to utility indifference pricing and pricing by valuation and stress measures will be discussed. Examples using the shortfall risk measure and average VaR will be shown. The work of Mingxin Xu is supported by the National Science Foundation under grant SES-0518869. I would like to thank Steven Shreve for insightful comments, especially his suggestions to extend the pricing idea from using shortfall risk measure to coherent ones, and to study its relationship to utility based derivative pricing. The comments from the associate editor and the anonymous referee have reshaped the paper into its current version. The paper has benefited from discussions with Freddy Delbaen, Jan Večeř, David Heath, Dmitry Kramkov, Peter Carr, and Joel Avrin.     

A relationship-management assessment tool: Questioning, identifying, and prioritizing critical aspects of customer relationships

With customer-relationship management (CRM) no longer a buzzword among trendsetters, organizations in all types of industries initially rushed to embrace it. Although a seductively attractive concept, the implementation of CRM proved difficult, however, and organizations are struggling with realizing their vision of a CRM organization. To help managers assessing the stage of relationships between their organization and the organization's business customers we consider the automotive industry. Based upon our case organization and its relationships with numerous business customers we develop a practical tool to question, identify, and prioritize critical aspects of customer-relationship management. First, we identify key areas in CRM. Secondly, we investigate how the chosen case organization has managed each of these key CRM areas over a broad range of business-customer relationships. Thirdly, we acknowledge that many organizations simultaneously have different types (transaction-relationship continuum) of business customers. We finish the article with a discussion of the study's limitations, and suggest avenues for future research.     

The Private Finance Initiative: risk, uncertainty and the state

This paper analyses the UK's Private Finance Initiative (PFI) at a conceptual level by focusing on the management of risk, which is central to the justification for the policy and its application across the public services, and uncertainty, which underlies the role of the state. The paper argues that the rhetorical support for PFI rests on a conflation of risk and uncertainty and that PFI leads to contractual arrangements that are inappropriate for the provision of public services over the medium term.