畜禽养殖业的环境影响及经济分析

畜禽业污染是我国农业面源污染的主要来源。本文估算了我国畜禽养殖业污染物排放量,阐述了畜禽养殖的环境影响,分析了畜禽污染内在的经济原因,并提出了防治畜禽污染的经济政策和措施,包括发展循环畜牧业、建设现代化的畜禽业物流体系、采纳各种环境经济手段、界定农村公共资源产权、实施优质畜禽产品品牌化战略、鼓励发展环保产业。     

基层财政解困:一个财政体制变迁的分析框架

基层财政困难已影响到部分地方经济发展与社会稳定,是迫切需要解决的问题.基层财政陷入困境的最直接根源是财政体制不规范,事权与财权高度不对称.解困的根本出路在于规范政府间财政关系,进行财政体制创新.但财政体制变迁不能局限于边际微调,须考虑政府财政级次问题.本文提出推行"省管县"体制与撤消乡镇级政府两项改革,将政府层级由五级简化为三级,对应形成三级财政.并以这三级财政为架构,重新设计财政体制,合理配置政府间事权财权,以推动基层财政彻底解困.     

Wealth inequality and collective action

We study the effect of inequality in the distribution of endowments of private inputs (e.g., land, wealth) that are complementary in production with collective inputs (e.g., contribution to public goods such as irrigation and extraction from common-property resources) on efficiency in a class of collective action problems. We focus on characterizing the joint surplus maximizing level of inequality, making due distinction between contributors and non-contributors, in a framework that allows us to consider a wide variety of collective action problems ranging from pure public goods to impure public goods to commons. We show that while efficiency increases with greater equality within the groups of contributors and non-contributors, so long the externalities (positive or negative) are significant, there is an optimal degree of inequality between these groups.     

基于Nerlove模型的中国小麦供给反应研究

依据1981—2006年中国小麦播种面积、价格和生产成本的时间序列数据,应用Nerlove模型,测算了我国小麦播种面积对价格和成本的反应程度。研究结果表明:我国小麦播种面积对价格的反应程度短期较小,但长期较大,这说明小麦供给对价格的反应存在滞后性;与价格弹性相比,小麦的成本弹性要小得多。因此,制定小麦政策时,应在稳定小麦生产资料价格的同时,加大对小麦价格支持政策的连续性,以促使麦农形成对小麦价格增长的稳定预期。     

Growth, welfare and transitional dynamics in an endogenously growing economy with abatement labor

This paper sets up a simple endogenous growth model that highlights the importance of the endogenous labor-leisure choice and the allocation between production labor and abatement labor. We show that, in contrast to the common notion (e.g. [Bovenberg, A.L., Smulders, S., 1996. Transitional impacts of environmental policy in an endogenous growth model. International Economic Review 37, 861–893] and [Bovenberg, A.L., de Mooij, R.A., 1997. Environmental tax reform and endogenous growth. Journal of Public Economics 63, 207–237]), the existence of an environmental production externality is a sufficient (but not necessary) condition for environmental policies to stimulate economic growth if the labor-leisure choice is endogenously determined. In particular, since there are complementarities between public abatement and private abatement, the public abatement expenditure will have a more powerful enhancing effect on economic growth when it is accompanied by more efficient private abatement. This result also leads to a corollary to the effect that it is easier to achieve double dividends in terms of enhancing both growth and welfare if the endogenous labor-leisure choice is taken into account.In our dynamic analysis, we show that if public abatement is substantially large, dynamic indeterminacy may occur despite the absence of a positive labor externality and interestingly, this is more likely to be the case when abatement labor plays a more significant role. Besides, the transitional effects of an increase in public abatement are also investigated.     

Public and private healthcare services: What drives the choice?

This paper has explored patients' propensity to consume private healthcare services. We based our analysis on the typical tangible and intangible (for instance, responsiveness, reliability, assurance and staff empathy) domains of the SERVQUAL and SERVPERF methods. These variables may influence patients' decision-making when they choose between the public and private sectors. We combined factor analysis (to obtain a set of latent factors related to perceived quality) and a partial proportional ordered logit model to estimate the probability that a patient would access private healthcare services. To test the main hypotheses, we used data from a stratified sample in Sardinia, a peripheral region of Italy. Findings revealed that private and public healthcare are substitutes, especially for primary/specialised services. Patients who used public healthcare frequently and had a low income were unlikely to change to private healthcare or to recommend private services. ‘Responsiveness’ and perceptions on ‘tangibles’ were key in determining the probability that a patient would choose and recommend private services. This paper offers a multifaceted framework that can be used in future research to generalise these findings, especially in insular regions that are constrained by mobility.     

如何提高公共就业培训服务绩效:多边平台战略的启示

提供公共就业培训服务是政府应对结构性就业矛盾、推动高质量就业的重要举措,当前主要以政府购买的方式提供。政府购买服务是合作治理的一种形态,但现实中依然延续官僚制管控思路,因而培训服务的供需匹配不够好,服务绩效不高。多边平台是一种开放的合作战略,强调治权开放基础上的生态系统价值创造,对提高公共就业培训服务绩效有着重要启示。平台战略启示政府相关部门要开放治权、完善平台规则、防范平台风险,搭建就业培训服务的多边平台以整合生态资源、促进供需匹配,以网络效应为核心机制推动用户规模的扩展,注重提高供需交互质量与用户黏性,以提高就业培训服务绩效。     

Destabilizing role of futures markets on North American hard red spring wheat spot prices

The objective of the paper is to determine if the futures prices of hard red spring wheat (HRSW) have stabilizing or destabilizing impact on spot HRSW price in North America. Several important results emerge from thorough empirical analysis. First, both Granger causality tests and directed acyclic graph algorithms (DAGs) point to two-way causality between futures and spot HRSW prices and thus endogeneity in both prices formation. To the contrary, both procedures suggest that ending stocks are exogenous to spot and futures HRSW prices. Both vector error correction model and impulse response functions point to a large and long-lasting impact of a shock to futures price on spot price level. Finally, variance decomposition analysis indicates that futures prices are responsible for the bulk of spot price volatility in both short and long run. Our result is consistent with those of theoretical models suggesting that when production (supply side) is the dominant disturbance, spot price is destabilized in both the short and the long run by futures prices. An important implication of this research is the need for alternative market mechanisms or alternative farm policy measures that would mitigate price risk and ensure sustainable farming of American HRSW farmers.     

Land use and land cover scenarios: An interdisciplinary approach integrating local conditions and the global shared socioeconomic pathways

Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes have profound impacts on the functioning of (agro)ecosystems and have potential to mitigate global climate change. However, we still lack interdisciplinary methods to project future LULC scenarios at spatial scales that are relevant for local decision making and future environmental assessments. Here we apply an interdisciplinary approach to develop spatially explicit projections of LULC at a resolution of 30 × 30 m informed by historic relationships between LULC and their key drivers, within the context of the four qualitative scenarios of global shared socioeconomic pathways. We apply this methodology to a case study in the Zona da Mata, Brazil, which has a history of major LULC changes. The analysis of LULC changes from 1986 to 2015 indicates that pasture area decreased from 76 to 58 % of total area, while forest areas increased from 18 to 24 %, and coffee from 3 to 11 %. Environmental protection legislation, rural credit for smallholder farmers, and demand for agricultural and raw products were identified as main drivers of LULC changes. Projected LULC for 2045 strongly depends on the global socioeconomic pathway scenarios, and forest and coffee areas may increase substantially under strong government measures in the environmentally conscious Green Road scenario or decrease in the high consumption Rocky Road scenario. Our study shows that under the set of drivers during the past three decades reforestation can go hand in hand with increase of agricultural production, but that major and contrasting changes in LULC can be expected depending on the socioeconomic pathway that will be followed in the future. To guide this process, LULC scenarios at the local scale can inform the planning of local and regional development and forest conservation.     

Green infrastructure and public policies: An international review of green roofs and green walls incentives

Worldwide, green infrastructure is increasingly used to mitigate the impacts of dense urban areas, contributing towards the naturalization of the built environment. However, for investors, these systems often emerge as requiring substantial upfront cost (high installation costs) and, depending on the solution, might also have significant maintenance costs. On the other hand, policymakers are placing green infrastructure on the agenda, as a solution to consider in urban planning and design. There is a mismatch between the economic/social/environmental value of green infrastructure and their financial analysis. As the quantified benefits of these solutions may not compensate the high implementation costs, discouraging building owners to invest in them. The alignment of both expectations, public and private agents, regarding the development of green infrastructure, is done through the use of incentives, with distinct configurations and nature, that promote and facilitate the adoption of green infrastructure by private investors. This research aims to identify and analyse the incentive policies used by several municipalities to promote the installation of green roofs and/or green walls. The data set includes 113 cities in 19 countries. The incentive policies were classified into six different categories: tax reductions, financing, construction permit, sustainability certification, obligations by law and agile administrative process. The results show that incentive policies are mainly concentrated in Europe and North America, and most incentive policies focus on the promotion of green roofs, as no exclusive incentive policies for the promotion of green walls were found. From all incentive policies studied, financial subsidies and obligations by law are the most used ways to promote green infrastructure worldwide.